Meesho shares jump 12% as JPMorgan sets ₹215 target

The trigger behind Thursday’s move

Meesho shares climbed about 12% in Thursday’s trade after JPMorgan initiated coverage on the e-commerce platform with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a price target of ₹215 per share. The rally came after three consecutive sessions of decline, making the move stand out as a sentiment reset driven by new brokerage coverage. The stock had settled at ₹172.68 per share on the NSE on Wednesday, and the brokerage target indicated an upside of more than 24% from that previous close. In the session, Meesho touched an intraday high of ₹196.62, up 13.86%. Other reported datapoints from the day showed the share trading around ₹193.50, while another update pegged the stock at ₹189.4 at 12:12 PM, up 9.6%. The surge was also described as a move of 10.82% to ₹191.50 in one market update, underscoring that prices were volatile but firmly higher through the day.

Trading snapshot and broader market context

While Meesho was higher, the broader market tone was weaker in at least one snapshot. The BSE Sensex was down 1.28% at 76,501.97 when Meesho was reported at ₹189.4. This divergence mattered for traders because it suggested the buying interest was stock-specific, led by the new coverage note rather than a broad risk-on rally. The day’s intraday range included a reported high near ₹193.45 in one update and ₹196.62 in another, both pointing to double-digit gains at peak. The stock’s move was widely framed as a reaction to the brokerage’s view on Meesho’s marketplace model and future monetisation path.

JPMorgan’s core thesis: discovery-led marketplace plus logistics

JPMorgan described Meesho as building a discovery-led marketplace that functions like a long-tail advertising network with embedded logistics, serving India’s fragmented retail landscape. The brokerage argued that the model can support transaction value growth even if user growth moderates. A key point in its argument was that net merchandise value (NMV) growth could outpace user growth, implying improving monetisation. The note also linked NMV scaling to rising frequency and a reduction in return-to-origin (RTO) orders, along with stronger growth in initiatives such as Mall and Content Commerce.

Valuation framework cited in the note

The brokerage said it values Meesho at 35 times FY30 estimated EV/EBITDA, discounted back to FY28. It contrasted this with internet peers, which it described as averaging about 70% growth over FY26-28E and trading at around 30 times EV/EBITDA. JPMorgan’s valuation framing also referenced an EBITDA CAGR of around 140% over FY28-30E as part of its justification. The target price of ₹215 was presented alongside different reference prices in market reports, including a stated upside of 13.5% from a current market price of ₹189.4, and an upside of more than 24% from the prior NSE close of ₹172.68.

Growth assumptions: NMV, engagement and users

JPMorgan expects Meesho’s NMV to scale at a 23% CAGR over FY26-31, without relying on what it called aggressive annual transacting user (ATU) targets. Instead, the brokerage attributed the growth to rising platform frequency, expected to exceed 12 transactions per user from FY30, and falling RTO rates. Separate reporting around the same coverage note also cited ATU projections rising from 199 million in FY25 to 265 million in FY26, and reaching 568 million by FY31. The combined message from these datapoints was that Meesho’s growth story is framed around deeper engagement and higher value per user rather than only expanding the user base.

Profitability path and margin expectations

The coverage note also outlined a margin improvement trajectory. JPMorgan expects EBITDA margin expansion to 4% by FY31, up from negative 3% in FY26. It further stated that EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF) CAGRs are expected at 170% and 52%, respectively, over FY28-31 post break-even. For FY28, the brokerage estimates revenue of ₹21,636 crore, with adjusted EBITDA of ₹211 crore and adjusted net income of ₹627 crore. The company is expected to achieve adjusted EBITDA break-even in FY28, based on the same estimates.

Advertising as a key value unlock

JPMorgan flagged advertising as the most significant value unlock for Meesho. One datapoint cited was that Meesho’s ad take-rate is currently 1.8% of GMV, compared with a global level of 3.7% mentioned in the coverage-linked reporting. The thesis is that under-monetised ads can lift profitability as seller participation and ad spend per seller rise and as branded and Mall categories expand. Importantly, the brokerage also linked the possibility of NMV growth outpacing user growth to better monetisation, where advertising is a central lever.

Cash flow angle: negative working capital

A notable part of the note was the view that FCF could recover faster than EBITDA, helped by Meesho’s negative working capital cycle. JPMorgan projected FCF to recover to 1.5% of NMV by FY28 and 3.1% by FY30. The coverage-linked reporting also noted that FCF was negative in FY26 due to logistics and user acquisition investments, while FY24 and FY25 had shown positive cash flow. This emphasis on cash generation mattered because many internet platforms are evaluated as much on cash discipline as on accounting profitability.

Risks highlighted: growth misses and logistics costs

JPMorgan flagged risks including potential growth misses and higher logistics costs, particularly as the company looks to reduce average selling prices. Another risk list in coverage-linked reporting included slower than expected growth in NMV due to slower smartphone shipments, persistent logistics cost overruns, inability to expand ad take rates, competition from horizontal ecommerce, and labor code risks. Separately, there was a logistics-specific datapoint suggesting logistics costs had fallen recently but that the drop may be temporary, with improvement expected by FY27 and Valmo expected to handle 62% of orders. The underlying message was that the unit economics can be sensitive to delivery and returns dynamics in a price-conscious market.

Where the stock stands since listing

Meesho made its stock market debut on 10 December 2025. The stock is up 72.52% over its IPO price of ₹111 and has gained 18.80% from its listing price of ₹161.20. After listing, it surged 57.97% from the listing price to hit a record high of ₹254.65 on 18 December 2025, before witnessing profit-taking. It was also reported to be down 24.80% from its peak levels.

Key numbers at a glance

Timeline: listing milestones mentioned

What investors will track next

The immediate focus is whether Meesho’s operating metrics align with the assumptions embedded in the bullish coverage, especially NMV scaling, RTO improvement, and ad take-rate expansion. Investors are also likely to watch logistics costs as Meesho attempts to lower average selling prices while protecting unit economics. JPMorgan’s targets for FCF recovery to 1.5% of NMV by FY28 and 3.1% by FY30 place cash conversion in the spotlight alongside EBITDA break-even expectations in FY28. With multiple brokerage views circulating and the stock still below its post-listing peak, upcoming disclosures around monetisation and costs will likely shape how sustainable the re-rating is.