Jewellery stocks in focus: Modi’s 1-year gold appeal

What put jewellery stocks in focus on May 11

Shares of gold jewellery companies such as Titan Company, Senco Gold, Kalyan Jewellers, Goldiam International and Thangamayil Jewellery are expected to be in focus on Monday, May 11. The immediate trigger is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public appeal urging citizens to avoid non-essential gold purchases for one year. The stated intent is to reduce pressure on foreign exchange outflows at a time when geopolitical tensions in West Asia are keeping energy and safe-haven prices elevated. For listed jewellers, the comment arrives alongside a market already reacting to sharp moves in gold and silver prices, as well as policy signals on trade and import costs.

Modi’s message: curb non-essential gold buying

Modi urged people to limit non-essential gold purchases for a year and to prioritise Made-in-India and locally manufactured products, including daily-use items such as shoes, bags and accessories. The appeal is framed as a macro-stability step rather than a formal policy action. The context is the ongoing West Asia crisis and its spillover into global commodity prices. Even without an official restriction, such messaging can influence near-term consumer behaviour, especially for discretionary purchases.

Why gold imports matter for India’s forex and trade deficit

India imports most of its gold and crude oil, both paid for in US dollars. With geopolitical tensions pushing up oil and gold prices globally, India’s import bill could rise sharply, adding pressure on the rupee and the economy. Gold jewellery demand in India remains structurally high, particularly during weddings and festivals, which can amplify import requirements during peak seasons. A temporary reduction in purchases, if it materialises, could lower dollar outflows and ease pressure on the trade deficit and forex reserves.

Cultural demand and the risk of postponed buying

Gold buying in India is deeply linked to culture and weddings, which makes demand less sensitive to short-term headlines than many other discretionary categories. According to reports referenced in the updates, analysts believe demand may be postponed rather than disappear completely. That distinction matters for listed retailers, because a delay can still affect near-term volumes, store-level throughput and working capital cycles. Retail sentiment can also turn cautious if consumers interpret higher gold prices and geopolitical uncertainty as reasons to wait.

Titan’s stance on supply risk from West Asia

Titan Company, one of the leading branded jewellers, has indicated it is unconcerned about short-term gold supply issues stemming from the West Asian conflict. The company’s gold exchange programme and contingency sourcing plans were cited as mitigating factors. This matters because supply continuity and inventory planning are key operational levers when prices are volatile. For investors tracking jewellery stocks, management commentary on sourcing and customer programmes can shape confidence during commodity spikes.

A recent catalyst: India-US trade deal and tariff clarity

Jewellery stocks saw a sharp intra-day rally on Tuesday, February 5, with gains reaching up to 7.5%, as investors reacted to the latest India-US trade deal providing greater clarity on tariffs for Indian exports. Moves highlighted included Kalyan Jewellers rising over 7.5% to ₹393.75, Senco Gold gaining more than 7% to ₹327.45, PC Jeweller up 5% to ₹10.90, and Titan advancing over 4.5% to ₹4,141. After months of negotiations, the United States confirmed a reduction in reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, with tariffs now at 18% versus earlier levels of 50%. US President Donald Trump said the US would charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, “lowering it from 25% to 18%,” and added that India would move forward to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the US to zero.

Business updates: festive demand versus gold price volatility

Jewellery stocks have also been moving on quarterly business updates, with festive demand repeatedly cited as the core driver. In early trade during one such session, Senco Gold surged nearly 14% to an intraday high of ₹368.85, Titan climbed about 4% to a fresh 52-week high of ₹4,285, and Kalyan Jewellers rose 2.60% to ₹513.65. Companies also acknowledged that sharply rising gold prices created pressure, with volatility affecting volumes even as overall growth stayed robust.

Senco Gold reported 51% year-on-year growth, and its trailing twelve-month revenue was stated at around ₹8,000 crore. Titan’s jewellery portfolio recorded 41% growth, driven largely by higher average selling prices during the festive season, while its overall consumer business revenue rose 40% year-on-year. Titan added 47 net new stores in India during the quarter. Kalyan Jewellers reported 42% year-on-year consolidated revenue growth, same-store sales growth close to 27%, and international revenue growth of 36% year-on-year. It also disclosed store additions of 21 Kalyan showrooms in India, 1 in the United Kingdom, and 14 Candere showrooms in India, taking its global showroom count to 469.

Senco Gold’s Q4FY26 update and FY27 store expansion plans

Shares of Senco Gold gained more than 13% on Monday after it reported a strong business update for Q4FY26 and a strong outlook for FY27. The company launched seven new showrooms in Q4 and reached 201 showrooms after accounting for the closure of two stores. It said gold prices were highly volatile due to war and global uncertainty, but customers continued to purchase jewellery, while the company planned inventory around demand changes while maintaining gross margin and profitability. It also said it is accelerating focus on lightweight jewellery and everyday wear to manage affordability in a high-price environment. For FY27, it cited upcoming occasions such as Akshaya Tritiya, Poila Boishak, Baishakhi, Rath Yatra, Raja Parba in Odisha and the summer wedding season as demand catalysts, and said it plans to launch 20-25 stores during the year.

Policy and cost signals: import duties and base import prices

India’s Union Budget kept customs duty rates for gold and silver imports unchanged: gold imports at 6% duty (5% basic customs duty plus 1% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess), and silver imports at 6% for eligible residents and 36% for others (35% BCD plus 1% AIDC). Both metals attract 3% GST. The government had earlier reduced gold customs duty from 15% to 6% from July 24, 2024.

Separately, reports also cited that the Centre cut the base import price of silver to $1,427 per kg (₹2,26,096/kg) from $1,820, and lowered gold’s base import price to $1,526 per 10 gm (₹1,42,223) from $1,652 per 10 gm. Such revisions are tracked by the market as they can influence procurement costs and inventory economics for jewellers.

When geopolitics hit: precious metals spike and stocks react

Jewellery-related stocks also saw declines during bouts of West Asia risk. In one session, jewellery stocks fell as much as 16% as gold and silver prices jumped after investors sought shelter in safe havens following the US and Israel attacks on Iran over a weekend. At around 11:25 AM in that update, MCX gold April futures were trading 3.2% higher at ₹1,67,299 per 10 grams, while silver May futures were up 3% at ₹2,91,143 per 1 kg. In the same window, PC Jeweller was down over 5%, Sky Gold and Diamonds fell 4%, Senco Gold was down 3%, Thangamayil Jewellery and Kalyan Jewellers were over 2% lower, and Titan was down 1.15%. Mirae Asset ShareKhan’s research analyst Kruttika Prabhudesai described sentiment as a mix of high-performance optimism and caution due to volatile gold prices.

Key facts at a glance

Market impact and analysis

The combined news flow highlights why jewellery stocks can trade on multiple, sometimes opposing, drivers in a short period. Modi’s appeal is aimed at macro stability and dollar outflows, but the immediate market read-through for retailers depends on whether consumers postpone purchases or shift to lighter, lower-ticket products. At the same time, exporters and organised players have been tracking tariff clarity from the India-US deal, given the US is a major consumer of Indian gems and jewellery. Add commodity volatility from West Asia, and daily price moves can swing between demand optimism and margin concerns.

For investors, the most measurable signals in the updates are company-level execution and policy certainty. Store additions at Titan and Kalyan, Senco’s showroom count milestone, and commentary on inventory planning and product mix reflect how retailers are trying to operate through high-price environments. On the policy front, unchanged customs duty rates in the Budget remove one source of near-term uncertainty, while adjustments in base import prices can affect cost calculations. The sector’s trading pattern in these updates suggests that headlines can move the stocks quickly, but quarterly demand trends and operational metrics remain central to the narrative.

Conclusion

Jewellery stocks are set to stay in focus as markets digest Modi’s request to curb non-essential gold buying for a year against a backdrop of West Asia-driven commodity volatility. Recent sessions have shown that tariff clarity, import cost signals and quarterly business momentum can all move the group sharply. The next set of company updates for the March quarter, and any further policy or trade developments, are likely to remain key triggers for Titan, Senco Gold, Kalyan Jewellers and their peers.