Monsoon 2026: IMD warns El Niño may cut rain

Weak start to the southwest monsoon raises alarms

Large parts of India have recorded below-normal rainfall so far this monsoon, adding to concerns about the peak sowing season. Meteorologists and officials have flagged the possibility that 2026 could turn into the driest monsoon season in over a decade. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast below-normal rainfall for the season. A key focus is the return of El Niño conditions in the Pacific, which has historically been associated with weaker monsoons in India. But scientists also caution that the relationship is not always straightforward, and outcomes can vary by region and timing. Even so, the combination of a delayed monsoon and warming Pacific waters is pushing states and central agencies to prepare for rainfall deficits. The concerns extend beyond farms to water supply management, food prices, and heat stress during the summer months.

IMD’s headline call: 90% of long-period average

The IMD is forecasting monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA), placing 2026 in the “below normal” category. In the context of India’s dependence on the June to September rains, a 90% LPA season can still be manageable, but it increases the probability of uneven distribution and localised shortages. The IMD has also indicated that El Niño conditions are prevailing and are expected to strengthen as the monsoon progresses. That expectation has reinforced the forecast for below-normal rains. In one assessment referenced in the provided material, the IMD forecast was framed as pointing to a high likelihood of weak monsoon conditions. The agency has also said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral this year in one update, suggesting limited offset to the Pacific influence. In separate context, a developing positive IOD was described as a potential partial cushion later in the season, but not enough to fully cancel El Niño’s impact.

What ministers and officials are saying

India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has drawn up contingency plans for regions considered most vulnerable to rainfall deficits. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told a recent meeting that the country is facing potential conditions for a weak monsoon due to El Niño. He said the impact is already becoming visible because the monsoon is “significantly delayed”. He added that overall rainfall has been 43% below normal so far and that forecasts indicate conditions are likely to remain weak during July. Such official messaging matters because crop planning decisions and state-level advisories often track these early season signals. It also sets the tone for how governments prioritise inputs, irrigation scheduling, and contingency crop choices. The preparation signals that the policy system is assuming a meaningful risk of rainfall shortfall, even as forecasters keep room for variability.

Rainfall deficit details: early-season numbers

Early rainfall readings have added to market and policy attention. According to the IMD, India received 34.3 mm of rainfall between June 4 and June 14, compared with a normal 47.7 mm for that period. That implies a rainfall deficit of 28% for those dates. In the same broader reporting, rainfall was described as tracking below normal levels across the country. Another datapoint cited a much larger deficit figure of 43% below normal “so far”, as referenced by the agriculture minister, indicating that deficits can look different depending on the period used for comparison. Such early gaps do not automatically lock in a weak season, but they can disrupt sowing windows if dry conditions persist. In addition, rainfall deficits across many districts at the start of the season can create uneven planting progress and higher reliance on irrigation. These conditions also tend to heighten sensitivity to any mid-season dry spell.

Monsoon progress: delayed, stalled, then moving again

Forecasters have also pointed to the monsoon’s on-ground progression as a key near-term variable. The southwest monsoon was described as struggling to advance, which kept attention on the developing El Niño in the Pacific. At the same time, forecasters said the monsoon may simply be running behind schedule rather than failing altogether. After a two-week stall, the monsoon was reported to have begun advancing again. This matters because a delayed onset or prolonged pause can affect planting decisions, especially for rainfed areas. But an improving advance can still bring rainfall to previously dry regions, depending on the strength and persistence of the flow. The IMD also said monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala around June 4, compared with the normal onset date of June 1, pointing to a delayed start marker.

El Niño returns: stronger signals, uncertain outcomes

El Niño has officially returned in the reporting provided, and scientists warned it could strengthen in the coming months. The phenomenon is driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters and is closely tracked because of its historical link to weaker monsoon rains over India. Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist at the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading, told DW that a very strong El Niño event is becoming increasingly likely and is expected to adversely affect the Indian summer monsoon. He added that climate model projections suggest seasonal rainfall across India could end up well below the long-term average, with some regions facing substantial deficits. Still, scientists also stress uncertainty, especially around intensity and timing. One segment noted it remains unclear whether this year will evolve into a “super” El Niño, and that it is still too early to conclude the event will become truly exceptional.

Global signals: WMO probabilities and duration risk

International agencies have also flagged the developing event. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that El Niño is rapidly developing and set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather. The WMO update cited an 80% likelihood of El Niño forming in June to August. It also said probabilities for the El Niño event to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. For India, that duration matters because the monsoon season runs through September, when summer sowing takes place. If El Niño conditions persist through the full monsoon window, the risk of sustained pressure on rainfall patterns rises. However, uncertainty remains over the peak strength and the exact timing of intensification.

IOD and the “cushion” argument: support, but not a cure

The Indian Ocean Dipole is another climate driver that can influence the monsoon. One update in the provided material said the IMD expects the IOD to remain neutral, implying it is unlikely to provide much support or disruption. In another context, a developing positive IOD was described as potentially cushioning El Niño’s impact partially, especially in the latter half of the monsoon. The same material emphasised that this would not fully cancel El Niño’s negative influence, and below-normal rainfall remains the likely overall outcome for 2026. The timing point is important because August to September is a key period for rain distribution and crop water needs in many regions. Even partial relief late in the season may not fully offset early deficits if sowing is delayed or acreage shifts. The net takeaway from the sourced statements is that IOD may soften impacts in some phases, but it does not remove the broader risk flagged by the IMD’s below-normal forecast.

What it could mean for crops, water and prices

A weaker-than-normal monsoon can disrupt the summer-sown crop season, which is why the agriculture ministry has prepared contingency plans for vulnerable regions. With rainfall already below normal in the early period, farmers in rainfed belts may face tighter sowing windows and higher dependence on irrigation. Beyond agriculture, officials and researchers have highlighted concerns spanning water supplies, food inflation, and heatwaves. Reservoir conditions were described as “currently satisfactory” in one meeting note, with overall storage reported at 127% of the normal level for this period, offering some buffer. But a buffer does not eliminate risk if rainfall remains patchy or delayed across major catchments. The reporting also cited studies suggesting El Niño can reduce total seasonal rainfall while increasing the likelihood of short-duration extreme rainfall events, which can raise flood risk even in a deficit year. That combination can complicate farm operations and urban water management because heavy bursts do not always translate into steady soil moisture replenishment.

Key facts at a glance

Why this matters for markets and policy tracking

For markets, the IMD’s 90% of LPA forecast is a critical input because it shapes expectations around crop output, rural demand, and food inflation risks. For policymakers, the focus shifts to contingency measures, water allocation, and readiness for uneven rainfall distribution. The presence of El Niño conditions, and expectations that it may strengthen during the monsoon, is central to the risk narrative. At the same time, the monsoon’s recent advance after a two-week stall underscores that near-term rainfall distribution can change quickly. Investors and businesses often track weekly rainfall departures and spatial distribution, not just the all-India seasonal number. The fact that early rainfall was below normal, and that large parts of the country saw deficiency in the initial monsoon days in one referenced assessment, keeps attention on district-level variability. With official statements already highlighting delays and deficits, the next set of IMD updates and observed rainfall patterns through July will remain closely watched.

Conclusion

India is entering the core monsoon window with the IMD forecasting below-normal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average and with El Niño conditions expected to strengthen. Early rainfall has been below normal, prompting agricultural contingency planning and closer monitoring of water and inflation risks. The monsoon has shown signs of resuming progress after a stall, but July conditions have been flagged as likely to remain weak in official remarks. The next key checkpoints will be updated rainfall departures, the evolution of El Niño intensity through the season, and how rainfall distribution plays out across vulnerable regions.