MRPL Q4FY26: EBITDA miss; stock drops 8%, Sell TP ₹143

What drove the sharp reaction in MRPL shares

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) shares fell sharply on April 27, 2026, after the company reported a weaker-than-expected March-quarter (Q4FY26) performance. The stock plunged nearly 8% intraday on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Around 1:20 pm, it was trading 6.9% lower at ₹173.53 versus the previous close of ₹186.38.

The decline came even as the broader market traded higher. The NSE Nifty50 was up 0.87% at 24,105.25, highlighting stock-specific pressure after the results and commentary from brokerage PL Capital. MRPL’s market capitalisation was reported at ₹304.46 billion.

The stock was also down around 19% from its 52-week high of ₹212.31 touched on March 6, 2026. Investors reacted to both the earnings miss and the downgrade by PL Capital, which cited higher costs and a rise in debt.

Q4FY26 earnings snapshot: EBITDA and profit miss estimates

PL Capital said MRPL’s Q4FY26 EBITDA came in at ₹17.8 billion, below its estimate of ₹31.6 billion and the consensus estimate of ₹33.2 billion. EBITDA also fell sharply from ₹27.8 billion in Q3FY26. In the reported results, Q4FY26 EBITDA was stated at ₹17.831 billion, up 58% year-on-year from ₹11.288 billion in Q4FY25.

Profit after tax (PAT) also missed expectations. PL Capital noted PAT at ₹1.2 billion, versus its estimate of ₹16.7 billion and a consensus estimate of ₹19.2 billion. PAT was ₹14.5 billion in Q3FY26 and ₹3.6 billion in Q4FY25.

A separate results line in the provided data pegged Q4FY26 net profit at ₹1.1699 billion (₹116.99 crore), down 68.43% year-on-year from ₹3.7063 billion (₹370.63 crore). Another “MRPL Result Highlights” summary said net profit declined 74.5% quarter-on-quarter and 67.4% year-on-year, with EPS at 2.11 for the quarter.

Costs and forex loss weighed on profitability

The key driver of the miss, according to PL Capital, was higher employee costs and other expenses. These expenses included a foreign exchange loss of ₹6.1 billion, which dragged profitability despite year-on-year improvement in EBITDA.

Another results summary in the provided text said expenses rose 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.9% year-on-year. While the quarter still delivered positive profit, the magnitude of the sequential decline from Q3FY26 was the key market concern.

Operational performance: throughput dipped sequentially

Operationally, MRPL’s throughput declined to 4.4 million metric tonnes (mmt) in Q4FY26 from 4.7 mmt in Q3FY26. Throughput is closely tracked for refiners because it affects capacity utilisation and the ability to capture refining margins.

The sequential throughput decline, combined with the cost shock from forex and other expenses, reduced operating leverage in the quarter. This combination helps explain why profitability fell sharply quarter-on-quarter even though some headline year-on-year comparisons looked better.

Revenue and sales: mixed signals across reported summaries

One reported set of numbers said revenue from operations increased 3.2% year-on-year to ₹284.93 billion in Q4FY26 from ₹276.02 billion in Q4FY25. Separately, another results summary cited sales of ₹239.50 billion in Q4FY26 versus ₹245.96 billion a year ago, implying a 2.63% year-on-year decline.

The same “MRPL Result Highlights” section stated consolidated revenues fell 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.9% year-on-year. Since the provided text includes multiple revenue lines, investors will likely focus on management disclosures and segment detail to reconcile differences across summaries.

Retail outlet plan: FY26 target met, bigger expansion mapped

On the marketing side, MRPL met its FY26 target of opening 250 retail outlets. The total retail outlet count reached 252 outlets.

Management has previously indicated, and PL Capital reiterated, that MRPL plans to raise its marketing presence by expanding its retail network to 1,000 outlets over the next five years. This is a significant scale-up from the current base and signals a push to build a larger downstream footprint.

GRM outlook and valuation metrics flagged by the brokerage

PL Capital estimated gross refining margins (GRM) of USD 7.7 per barrel for FY27E and USD 7.4 per barrel for FY28E. The brokerage also noted MRPL was trading at 7.8x and 7.7x EV/EBITDA on FY27E and FY28E estimates, respectively.

After the Q4FY26 miss, PL Capital downgraded MRPL to ‘SELL’ from ‘ACCUMULATE’ and cut its target price to ₹143 from ₹192 earlier. The revised target was based on 6.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA. The brokerage said the downgrade reflects an increase in debt.

PL Capital also maintained an option value of ₹22 per share for MRPL’s chemicals foray, noting it remains a few years away from commercialisation.

Dividend stance: no final dividend recommended

The company’s board has not recommended a final dividend for FY26, as stated in the provided report. Dividend decisions are closely watched in refining companies given the cyclicality of earnings and the need to fund capex, working capital, and balance-sheet priorities.

Key numbers at a glance

Why this quarter matters for investors

The Q4FY26 print shows how quickly profitability can compress when costs spike and operational metrics soften at the same time. Even with year-on-year growth in EBITDA, the sequential decline from Q3FY26 and the miss versus estimates dominated the market response.

The brokerage downgrade adds another layer for investors tracking near-term valuation and balance-sheet direction, particularly since PL Capital explicitly linked the ‘SELL’ call to higher debt. At the same time, the retail expansion plan to 1,000 outlets over five years remains a measurable operational goal that the market may track alongside quarterly refining performance.

Conclusion

MRPL’s Q4FY26 results were marked by a sharp quarter-on-quarter fall in EBITDA and PAT, led by higher costs and a ₹6.1 billion forex loss, alongside a throughput decline to 4.4 mmt. The stock fell nearly 8% intraday, and PL Capital cut its target price to ₹143 while downgrading the stock to ‘SELL’. Key upcoming signposts for investors include progress on retail outlet expansion and any updates on the chemicals foray timeline, which PL Capital said is still a few years away from commercialisation.