NHPC gets CLSA ₹117 target, eyes 41% upside in 2026

What changed for NHPC in CLSA’s latest note

CLSA has reiterated a positive stance on state-run hydropower company NHPC Ltd, keeping a “High Conviction” rating and setting a price target of ₹117 per share. The brokerage links the call to what it describes as a turning point in 2026, when NHPC’s growth trajectory could materially improve. The core of the thesis is a sharp step-up in installed capacity, which CLSA expects to translate into better earnings visibility.

The note also flags near-term project commissioning milestones and the possibility of new project awards as additional support for growth. In separate commentary around the stock, CLSA has positioned NHPC as a renewable and “net zero” play that the market may be undervaluing.

Price target: ₹117 and the implied upside

CLSA’s ₹117 target has been presented against more than one recent closing reference point in market coverage. One comparison pegs the upside at about 41% from a closing price of ₹83.00. Another pegs the implied upside at over 42% from Thursday’s close of ₹82.00. In other market summaries, the same target has been described as indicating roughly 43% to 44% upside from “current levels.”

While the exact percentage varies with the base price used, the directional message remains consistent: CLSA believes the stock has meaningful headroom if the projected capacity additions and earnings improvement materialise.

Why CLSA sees FY26 as an inflection year

CLSA’s “turning point” view is tied to commissioning-led growth and a step-up in capacity that the brokerage expects to show up from FY26. The firm expects a decisive improvement in earnings visibility from FY26, which in turn underpins its higher-conviction stance.

The brokerage has also pointed to NHPC’s valuation context in some coverage, noting a 25% correction in the stock over the past six months, and framing that correction as creating a cheaper entry point. Separately, the firm has suggested NHPC’s stock price could double in the next four years, though that view is presented as an expectation rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Installed capacity: CLSA forecasts a 64% YoY expansion

A central data point in CLSA’s call is its estimate that NHPC’s installed capacity could rise by as much as 64% year-on-year in FY26. This is positioned as the key driver of a stronger medium-term earnings profile.

Capacity additions matter disproportionately for hydropower operators because incremental generation can raise revenue and operating leverage, depending on plant load factors, tariff frameworks, and hydrology. CLSA’s argument is that the scheduled commissioning pipeline makes FY26 a potential break from the recent trend.

Earnings outlook: 90% EPS growth (FY25 to FY27)

CLSA has projected nearly 90% growth in earnings per share (EPS) over FY25 to FY27, tying that to the expansion phase and the resulting improvement in profitability. Market reports around the note have repeatedly referenced this EPS estimate as the key output metric expected to improve as projects come onstream.

In addition to the FY25 to FY27 EPS view, a separate CLSA projection cited in market coverage indicates 114% growth in REE (excluding minority interests) from FY24 to FY28CL. Based on those expectations, CLSA has also referenced a 69% increase in EPS and a 419 basis points rise in return on equity (ROE) by FY27.

Project triggers in focus: Subansiri Lower and Parbati-II

CLSA’s growth framing includes specific commissioning catalysts. Market coverage mentions the commissioning of the Subansiri Lower Hydropower Project as part of the expected transformational growth phase.

Separately, the brokerage has been bullish on the likelihood of commissioning the Parbati-II hydroelectric project in Himachal Pradesh in early April, with one report specifying the first week of April. CLSA described this commissioning as a turning point that could unlock long-awaited value for shareholders, according to the referenced market commentary.

Potential new project awards and visibility on pipeline

Alongside commissioning, CLSA’s note references the potential for new project awards as an additional support to the growth narrative. While the specific projects or timelines are not detailed in the provided text, the inclusion is important because fresh awards can extend the capacity build-out beyond the immediate commissioning cycle.

For investors, the combination of near-term commissioning plus a path to additional awards typically affects how the market prices medium-term earnings durability.

How the Street is positioned: mixed, with a wide target range

NHPC is tracked by multiple analysts with a mixed but slightly positive tilt in the data cited. One snapshot says NHPC is followed by eight analysts, with four “Buy,” one “Hold,” and three “Sell” recommendations.

A separate consensus summary in the provided text states the average 12-month price target is 89.86, implying +12.93% upside, with the highest estimate at ₹117 and the lowest at ₹72. ICICI Securities’ ₹72 target is referenced as the low end of the range.

Market reaction: stock moves after the brokerage call

NHPC shares were reported to have gained in trade following CLSA’s high-conviction call, with one update citing a rise of about 4.5%. Another report noted the stock was up around 6.5% after CLSA initiated coverage and reiterated its bullish view.

These moves highlight that brokerage notes can act as short-term catalysts, particularly when they come with the highest target on the Street or a rating described as “high conviction.”

Key numbers table

Analysis: what investors will track next

The key variable in CLSA’s thesis is execution on commissioning and the extent to which the capacity ramp shows up in reported earnings. The FY26 capacity step-up is the cornerstone, while the EPS and ROE projections provide the financial bridge between project delivery and valuation.

Investors are likely to track timelines for Subansiri Lower and Parbati-II, and any confirmation of new project awards that could extend the growth runway. They may also watch how consensus targets evolve, given CLSA’s ₹117 has been described as the highest among analysts cited.

Conclusion

CLSA’s ₹117 target and high-conviction rating position NHPC as a stock where FY26 execution could reshape market expectations, driven by a projected 64% capacity expansion and stronger earnings visibility. The next signposts will be commissioning milestones and any updates on fresh project awards, which are central to the brokerage’s growth narrative.