NHPC target 2026: Elara sees 24% upside on energy plans

Why NHPC is back on investor radar

NHPC Ltd, a Government of India-owned power sector company, was in focus after a fresh note from global brokerage Elara Securities. The brokerage remained constructive on the stock, pointing to the company’s large hydropower pipeline and a wider push into clean energy segments. The report came at a time when NHPC’s quarterly earnings showed strong profit growth but a softer operating margin.

In early trade on Tuesday (19th), NHPC shares moved up by over 1% and touched ₹78.85 versus the prior close, according to the market snapshot cited in the report. The company’s market capitalisation was reported at about ₹78,120 crore.

Elara Securities keeps “Buy”, sets ₹97 target

Elara Securities maintained a “Buy” rating on NHPC and set a target price of ₹97 per share. This implied an upside of about 24% over the cited prevailing market price of ₹78.40. The brokerage’s view is anchored in NHPC’s project additions and its strategy to broaden the generation mix beyond conventional hydro.

The brokerage also referenced the strengthening outlook as large projects progress towards full operations. For investors tracking PSU power names, the note is notable because NHPC’s medium-term growth is heavily linked to project commissioning timelines and regulated equity build-up.

Subansiri Lower (2,000 MW) seen as a key catalyst

Elara highlighted the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project as a central driver for the company’s improving position after it becomes fully operational. The project is located near the Subansiri river at the Gerukamukh area, on the Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border.

The commissioning trajectory of such a large hydro project matters for NHPC because cash flows and regulated returns typically improve once projects start contributing at scale. It also strengthens the company’s base in hydropower even as it builds exposure to other renewable segments.

Earnings estimates trimmed for FY27 and FY28

While maintaining a positive stance, Elara reduced its earnings estimates for the outer years. The brokerage cut its estimated income for FY27E by 3.3% and for FY28E by 5.3%. The report did not provide the revised absolute income figures alongside these percentage changes.

For readers, this combination of a bullish rating with estimate cuts is worth noting. It indicates that the long-term thesis is being retained, but the near-to-medium term financial trajectory may be moderated in the model.

Clean energy push: solar, wind and pumped storage

Elara’s note said NHPC does not want to remain only a hydropower company. The company is expanding into solar, wind, and pumped storage, which the brokerage framed as supportive for long-term growth.

The report also linked NHPC’s strategy to the broader global focus on green energy, with higher attention on clean power across regions including the Middle East and the US. In that backdrop, incremental clean-energy capacity and project wins could improve NHPC’s position in the renewable energy ecosystem.

FY27 roadmap: five hydro projects under construction

As per the brokerage report, NHPC is preparing to commission five new hydropower projects that are currently under construction by FY27. Through these additions, NHPC aims to raise its regulated equity base from about ₹18,300 crore to around ₹30,600 crore.

Regulated equity is an important operating metric for utilities because it influences the scale of regulated returns and is closely tracked by investors in power PSUs. The stated jump, if executed as planned, would represent a significant expansion in the asset base.

Q4 FY26 results: profit jumped, but margin fell

NHPC’s quarterly numbers cited in the report showed a sharp year-on-year rise in net profit. For the fourth quarter, net profit increased 68.5% to ₹1,549 crore from ₹919.6 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue rose 20% to ₹2,816 crore versus ₹2,347 crore a year earlier.

At the same time, operating performance was mixed. EBITDA slipped 0.7% to ₹1,196 crore from ₹1,205 crore, and EBITDA margin declined to 42.5% from 51.3%.

Separately, the “Earnings Alert” data in the supplied market snapshot cited consolidated net profit of ₹1,460.16 crore on revenue of ₹2,815.53 crore for Q4 FY26. Both sets of numbers were presented in the source context.

Dividend proposal for FY26

NHPC’s board recommended a final dividend for FY26 of ₹0.21 per equity share (face value ₹10). The dividend is subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting.

For income-focused investors, the proposed payout is a specific, near-term event to track, because it depends on the AGM outcome and the company’s stated timelines for distribution.

Stock movement and other brokerage cues

The stock’s near-term trading range in the supplied snapshot (as of May 18, 2026) showed a day’s low of ₹75.91 and a day’s high of ₹78.55, with a 52-week range of ₹71.62 to ₹92.34.

In another brokerage development included in the text, CLSA upgraded NHPC from “Outperform” to “High Conviction Outperform” while cutting its target price to ₹117 from ₹120. The report also stated that NHPC shares rose about 10% over two days to ₹82.13 on BSE after the CLSA note, following a 25% fall over the previous six months.

Key data points at a glance

Why this matters for PSU power investors

NHPC’s setup is being evaluated on two parallel tracks in the supplied material. One is project execution, especially the ramp-up of large hydropower assets such as Subansiri Lower, and the planned commissioning of additional hydro projects by FY27. The other is diversification, with solar, wind, and pumped storage positioned as growth areas.

The Q4 FY26 results add nuance to the narrative. Profit and revenue growth were strong on a year-on-year basis, but EBITDA and operating margin were weaker, which is often a key debate point for utility stocks. Elara’s estimate cuts for FY27E and FY28E, despite a maintained “Buy”, reflect this balance between long-term capacity-led growth and near-term profitability trends.

What to watch next

Investors will likely watch for progress updates on Subansiri Lower and the broader commissioning schedule of the five under-construction hydro projects targeted by FY27. The final dividend will also depend on shareholder approval at the AGM.

Brokerage targets in the text ranged from Elara’s ₹97 to CLSA’s ₹117, keeping NHPC in the spotlight as markets react to execution milestones, quarterly operating trends, and capital allocation signals.