NHPC shares: Elara sees 24% upside on Subansiri

What changed for NHPC on the day

Shares of NHPC, a public sector energy company, were in focus after Elara Securities flagged “significant rerating potential” for the stock. The brokerage linked its view to the expected impact of the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project. The project is located at Gerukamukh on the border of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, along the Subansiri River. NHPC stock ended 1.17% higher at ₹77.71 on Monday, as per the data provided. The same price is also cited as NHPC’s share price as on 18 May 2026.

Elara’s call: Buy rating and ₹97 target

Elara Securities has retained a Buy call on NHPC. It set a price target (TP) of ₹97, implying a 24% upside from the current market price cited in the text. Elara also detailed its valuation basis, stating it is valuing the company at “2.0x FY28E regulated equity.” The brokerage note also said it is introducing FY29E earnings estimates. The report’s core trigger is the “full commissioning” of the Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project.

Why Subansiri Lower matters in the rerating argument

The rerating thesis in the provided material is directly tied to the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project. The plant’s location at Gerukamukh and its presence on the Subansiri River are highlighted, underlining its importance as a large hydro asset. While the text does not provide commissioning timelines or unit-wise ramp-up details, it explicitly states “full commissioning” as the key catalyst. In regulated utility models, commissioning and stable operations can influence allowed returns and earnings visibility. That is the basis on which the note expects a valuation rerating, as presented in the data.

Stock price snapshot and market capitalisation

NHPC shares closed at ₹77.71, up 1.17% on the day referenced. The firm’s market capitalisation is stated as ₹78,059 crore in the same context. Elsewhere in the provided data dump, a separate snapshot mentions market cap of ₹74,052 crore with a “current price” of ₹73.7, indicating that different market snapshots are being referenced. The article’s main event, however, is anchored around the ₹77.71 close and the ₹97 target.

Returns: strong long-term gains, weak recent trend

The provided performance table shows NHPC’s near-term returns have been negative across multiple windows. Past 1 week return is -6.03% and past 1 month is -2.51%. Past 6 months is -5.49% and past 1 year is -11.68%. Over longer periods, the stock shows strong gains, with past 3 years return at 74.72%. The text also states NHPC “tripled investor wealth in the last five years,” though it does not provide the exact percentage.

Valuation and what the numbers in the feed show

One valuation data point lists NHPC’s P/E ratio at 20.48 and flags valuation as “High,” saying it “seems to be overvalued vs the market average.” Another line in the feed, however, says the Price-to-Earnings ratio (about 20.5x) is below the Indian market (23.3x). A separate market snapshot lists stock P/E at 23.4, reinforcing that valuation readings vary by source and time. The practical takeaway from the supplied material is that NHPC is being discussed both as reasonably valued versus the broader market and as expensive on certain screens.

What analyst aggregates and forecasts suggest

The input includes an “NHPC Analyst Ratings & Forecast” section stating that 67% of analysts (from 6 analysts) have suggested investors can buy the stock. Another section cites 8 analysts offering 1-year price forecasts, with a max estimate of ₹117 and a min estimate of ₹70, and an average target of ₹91.97. The same feed notes that the overall rating was calculated as “neutral,” despite a “strong buy trend” among some analysts. These mixed descriptors reflect typical dispersion in analyst views when near-term price action is weak but longer-term project triggers are in focus.

Operating footprint and capacity details cited

NHPC is described as generating, selling, and trading electricity through hydro, wind, and solar stations in India and Nepal, and also owning and operating power stations. As of Q3 FY25, its installed capacity is stated as 7,233 MW, including hydro and renewables. The feed also describes NHPC as one of India’s largest hydropower producers, with 6,971 MW of hydropower, described as roughly 15% of the country’s total. The company is also referred to as a Navratna public sector utility and a Government of India flagship hydroelectric generation company.

Key financial and event data at a glance

Why this matters for investors tracking PSU power stocks

For NHPC, large hydro commissioning events are central because they can change the earnings profile and visibility that brokerages use in valuation. Elara’s note frames Subansiri Lower’s full commissioning as the primary driver for potential rerating, and backs it with a ₹97 target and a stated multiple on FY28E regulated equity. At the same time, the supplied data shows recent price performance has been weak across 1-week to 1-year windows, which can shape sentiment even when longer-term project narratives stay intact. The dataset also flags dividend yield around the 2.49%-2.59% range in different snapshots, along with a risk note that dividend is “not well covered by free cash flows.”

Conclusion

NHPC is back on the radar after Elara Securities reiterated a Buy rating and set a ₹97 target, citing rerating potential tied to the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower project’s full commissioning. The stock’s close at ₹77.71 and market cap of ₹78,059 crore provide the immediate context, while the return profile shows strong multi-year gains but negative momentum in recent months. Investors will likely track how commissioning-led expectations translate into reported earnings estimates over the next forecast cycles, including FY28E and the newly introduced FY29E estimates mentioned by the brokerage.