Nifty eyes 24,000 in 2026 as US-Iran ceasefire cools oil

Early cues: GIFT Nifty points to gap-up

Indian equity markets headed into Wednesday with clear signs of a strong start, supported by a sharp rise in GIFT Nifty in early trade. One pre-open indication in the feed showed GIFT Nifty up around 200 points, flagging a likely attempt by the Nifty to reclaim the 24,000 mark. Markets had been shut on Tuesday due to Ambedkar Jayanti, but global developments during the holiday shifted the tone in risk assets. Traders returned to screens with crude oil moving lower and global equities firm.

Geopolitics drives sentiment: hopes of US-Iran engagement

The immediate catalyst was a turn in US-Iran headlines. Signals from US leadership that talks with Iran remained possible reduced near-term fears around disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supplies. In another update, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, linked to conditions around access through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also confirmed a halt to military operations in a post on X, according to the market updates provided. With the situation appearing less escalatory in the short term, risk appetite improved.

Crude oil cools: a direct relief channel for India

Energy prices reacted quickly. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tumbled 13.89% to USD 94.09 per barrel in one session cited, and another update put Brent around USD 94-95 after having surged above USD 115 earlier. The feed also noted a separate move where Brent slipped to roughly USD 107 per barrel from USD 110 during ceasefire discussion headlines. For India, lower crude has an outsized impact because the country relies on imports for over 80% of its crude, as noted in the Reuters copy. Lower oil prices typically ease pressure on inflation, the current account and input costs, which can support equities when geopolitical risk recedes.

Global markets turn risk-on

Global equities responded positively to the easing in perceived geopolitical risk. US markets ended higher overnight with gains led by technology stocks, while Asian indices opened firm. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi surged 6.87% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.39% in the session described. This represented a reversal from the cautious tone earlier in the week, when West Asia tensions had weighed on investor confidence.

India’s Wednesday rally: Nifty near 24,000, Sensex up nearly 4%

Indian benchmarks followed global cues and the crude move. During Wednesday trade, the Nifty 50 was reported at 23,994.30, up 3.8% or 870.95 points, while the Sensex was at 77,535.72, up 3.91% or 2,919.14 points. By the close, the Sensex jumped 2,946.32 points or 3.95% to 77,562.90, while the Nifty soared 873.70 points or 3.78% to 23,997.35. Intraday, the Nifty touched 24,025.15 and the Sensex rose to 77,635.54.

Sector and stock action: banks and cyclicals lead

Leadership came from rate-sensitive and cyclical pockets. The Nifty Realty index jumped over 5% in one update, while auto, PSU banks and private banks rose 3-4% each. Among Nifty gainers cited were InterGlobe Aviation, Larsen & Toubro, Shriram Finance, Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises, while laggards included ONGC, Coal India and Tech Mahindra. In the Sensex pack, InterGlobe Aviation rose 8.22% to lead gains in the close-to-close list provided, with Tech Mahindra, Sun Pharma and Power Grid among laggards.

RBI policy: repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, stance neutral

The Reserve Bank of India kept policy steady as markets assessed the macro implications of the West Asia conflict on energy supplies, inflation and growth. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance. The Marginal Standing Facility rate and Standing Deposit Facility rate were also left unchanged at 5% and 5.5%, respectively, as per the update.

Volatility and flows: VIX swings, FIIs sell, DIIs buy

Volatility stayed on the radar. One pre-open technical note highlighted India VIX rising around 8% and moving above the 20 mark, indicating elevated uncertainty. Later data in the weekly wrap showed India VIX fell 7.72% to close at 18.85, signalling reduced volatility, though it also noted volatility remained high amid doubts over the sustainability of the truce. On flows, exchange data cited showed Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 8,692.11 crore on Tuesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors bought stocks worth Rs 7,979.50 crore.

Technical view: key levels traders are watching

Analysts cited in the feed kept the near-term structure constructive but headline-sensitive. Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse said the Nifty supports a buy-on-decline approach as long as it holds above its 21-day moving average at 23,270. A decisive move above 24,000 was flagged as a potential trigger for short covering towards the 24,200-24,400 zone. Other commentary placed Nifty support in the 23,500-23,150 band and resistance in the 24,500-25,000 range. For Bank Nifty, participants cited support at 53,700-53,000 and resistance at 56,700-57,700.

Key numbers at a glance

Weekly wrap: second consecutive week of gains

In the weekly summary dated April 11 from Mumbai, Indian benchmarks closed higher for the second consecutive week amid huge short covering linked to the US-Iran ceasefire. The Nifty rose 5.89% for the week and ended the last trading day up 1.16% at 24,050. The Sensex was up 918 points or 1.20% on the day at 77,550 and gained 5.77% during the week. Bank Nifty outperformed with a weekly gain of 8.47% and closed at 55,912, up 1.99% on Friday. Sectorally on a weekly basis, Nifty realty, capital markets and financial services were up 12.97%, 11.7% and 10.8% respectively, while Nifty Midcap100 gained 7.76% and Nifty Smallcap100 added 7.60%.

What to watch next: geopolitics, oil and volatility

The near-term direction remains closely tied to developments in US-Iran negotiations, the status of the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil’s next move. The updates also referenced talks scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, keeping geopolitics in focus. At home, commentary noted recent inflation has stayed largely under control with limited pass-through from elevated energy prices so far, offering some stability. But with India VIX having shown sharp swings across the same news cycle, traders are likely to monitor whether volatility cools enough to support follow-through above 24,000.