Nifty 27,000 in Sight: Bolinjkar’s 2025-26 Stock View

Market setup: optimism despite global uncertainty

Indian equities have traded in a relatively tight band even as global uncertainty has stayed elevated. Yet Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, argues the market has already absorbed several headline risks and remains positioned for higher levels. Speaking to ET Now, he said the market is “well positioned to hit 27,000 from current levels.”

Bolinjkar’s core argument is that a mix of positive triggers is aligning at once. He points to trade-related developments, including signed free trade agreements (FTAs), and an earnings season that has delivered encouraging signals. In his view, the market has “climbed every wall of worry,” and the broader setup still supports a fresh leg of the rally.

What is driving the bullish view on Nifty

Bolinjkar’s optimism is framed as fundamentals-led rather than sentiment-led. He links the market’s resilience to developments after tariffs, progress on FTAs, and quarterly results that suggest a “very strong growth trajectory going ahead.” With earnings season largely behind investors and trade-related positives increasingly reflected in prices, the immediate question becomes whether momentum can hold.

His answer is yes, with “new highs” still possible. The call matters because it comes at a time when the market has already moved meaningfully, and investors are debating whether a consolidation phase is the start of fatigue or simply a pause.

Metals in focus as Nifty Metal hits 12,000

A key sector in the current rally narrative is metals. The Nifty Metal Index touching 12,000 and Tata Steel hitting a 52-week high have drawn attention to the strength in the trade. Bolinjkar’s view is that the move is not finished and that the broader trend remains supportive.

He said the “trend towards purchasing of hard metal currencies is going to continue and they are only going to get stronger,” and added that any sideways correction should be treated as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. That framing is important for investors trying to decide whether the sector is overheated or still riding a durable cycle.

Hindustan Zinc: preferred pick tied to silver prices

Within metals, Bolinjkar identified Hindustan Zinc as his top pick. His rationale is directly linked to rising silver prices, which he expects to support earnings per share and overall profitability. The thesis is straightforward: if silver prices stay firm, profitability tailwinds can flow through to reported performance.

The broader metals view also ties into other supportive elements referenced in the commentary, including commodity price tailwinds for miners and regulatory protectionism in steel.

Paytm: sum-of-the-parts target of ₹1,800 to ₹2,000

Bolinjkar also outlined a bullish case on Paytm, pointing to a sum-of-the-parts valuation that implies a target range of ₹1,800 to ₹2,000 over the next 12 months. The stock has seen fresh institutional attention after a bullish note from Macquarie, and he believes the upside is still meaningful.

He anchored the thesis to two operating levers: double-digit revenue growth and disciplined cost management. In his words, “Double-digit growth is very much for the asking and that coupled with its very disciplined cost measures is going to add to the margins.” For investors who missed the earlier move, his view is that the value-unlock journey still has room to play out.

Cigarette stocks: tax hikes seen as a speed bump

The commentary also touched on cigarette stocks, where an additional indirect tax burden has unsettled some investors. Bolinjkar’s position is that the concern is manageable and that past patterns support the idea that tax hikes may not permanently derail the sector’s investment case.

He characterised the impact as a “speed bump” rather than a structural roadblock. The key takeaway is that the market may be reacting to near-term uncertainty even if longer-term demand and pricing dynamics can adjust.

Pharma: a note of caution

While the stance on metals and Paytm is constructive, the tone on pharma was more guarded. The text flags “a word of caution” on the sector without detailing specific triggers. Investors typically interpret such caution as a reminder to be selective and to avoid assuming broad-based sector strength.

Given the larger message in the commentary, the caution fits a theme of staying focused on earnings momentum and valuation discipline even in a rising market.

Technical levels and near-term market behaviour

Separate market commentary highlighted that domestic benchmarks recovered on Thursday, extending a winning streak to three sessions, even as trading started cautiously ahead of the Union Budget scheduled for the weekend. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the Nifty 50’s ability to hold the 25,150 to 25,200 band, aligned with the 200-day exponential moving average, reinforced near-term stability.

He also described intraday action as constructive, with a “higher-low and higher-high structure” after an early dip, indicating buying interest at lower levels. Another view cited a potential upside toward 25,575 for Nifty and 83,000 for Sensex, while warning that below 25,200 for Nifty and 82,000 for Sensex, sentiment could change and traders may prefer to exit long positions.

Volatility signals: India VIX targets referenced

The text also referenced India VIX moving toward earlier targets, noting that 12 was “almost achieved,” and that there may be “much more room” to reach 13 as a next target. While volatility measures do not dictate direction on their own, they are closely watched for cues on market stress and positioning.

Longer-horizon targets: 2026 forecasts in the mix

Beyond the near-term 27,000 discussion, the broader narrative includes multiple longer-term projections. Emkay has set a Nifty 2026 target at 29,000, and Nomura expects Nifty 50 to reach 29,300 by end-2026, as cited in a Reuters-quoted note. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, sees the Sensex at 107,000 by December 2026, with valuations and macro factors highlighted as key.

These targets reinforce that the market debate is shifting from “whether” India can make new highs to “how quickly” and “which segments” may drive returns.

Key numbers and levels at a glance

What this means for investors

Across the different viewpoints in the text, a common message emerges: stay selective. Bolinjkar’s framework emphasises trade agreements, regulatory protectionism in steel, commodity tailwinds for miners, and a recovering platform economy as forces “pointing in the same direction.”

At the same time, the technical discussion suggests the market’s near-term posture depends on holding specific support bands, particularly around 25,150 to 25,200 and the broader 25,000 area referenced as important for consolidation. The overall guidance in the text is not to confuse short-term consolidation with a trend reversal, especially when the market is responding positively to earnings signals and trade developments.

Conclusion

The market narrative in the text is a mix of macro optimism and stock-specific themes. Bolinjkar’s call for Nifty at 27,000 sits alongside a constructive view on metals, a defined 12-month target range for Paytm, and a tempered stance on sectors like pharma and cigarettes where policy or other headwinds can influence sentiment.

With the Union Budget approaching and global cues still in play, the next phase is likely to be shaped by whether key support zones hold and whether sector rotation toward cyclicals continues, as highlighted in the commentary.