Stock Market Today: Nifty, Sensex rise as IT leads

Nifty today extended its rebound for a third session, ending up 0.79% at 23,767, while Sensex today rose 0.81% to 76,685. Gains were broad-based, led by information technology and autos, even as the rupee hit a fresh record low and crude oil hovered above $100 a barrel.

A relief rally, but caution under the surface

The day’s move looked like a continuation of a technical recovery after the recent sharp slide, helped by improving risk tone in global equities and cooling domestic volatility. India VIX softened further, signalling reduced near-term fear premiums.

At the same time, traders remained wary of two factors that can quickly swing sentiment: the West Asia conflict’s impact on energy supplies and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later in the day. That mix kept buying selective, with defensives and rate-sensitive pockets showing diverging behaviour.

Global cues: Wall Street steadier, Fed in focus

Global markets were calmer compared with the previous week’s swings. Asian equities tracked mild optimism following a steadier close on Wall Street, but conviction remained limited because oil stayed elevated.

The Fed’s March 17–18 FOMC meeting is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range. Investors were positioned for a “hold” outcome, but the real catalyst is guidance via the dot-plot and commentary on how energy-driven inflation risks could affect the path of cuts. Any hint that rate cuts could be pushed out has implications for global liquidity and foreign flows into emerging markets.

India’s macro tape: rupee pressure offsets equity cheer

The rupee weakened to a record low near 92.6 against the US dollar, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to an oil shock and the risk of a wider current account strain if crude remains high. Currency weakness can be a tailwind for export-heavy IT in the short run, but it also raises imported inflation concerns.

Crude oil remained the single most watched variable. Prices near $103 a barrel followed headlines around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran warning that the route may not return to normal quickly. For India, sustained high crude typically pressures margins for oil marketing companies and fuel-intensive sectors, and it can complicate the inflation and rates outlook.

What worked on Dalal Street

IT was the standout, with Nifty IT up sharply and heavyweight names contributing meaningfully to index gains. The sector benefited from a mix of oversold positioning, a weaker rupee, and brokerage commentary that reduced near-term disruption fears from newer AI tools.

Autos also outperformed, with Nifty Auto rising nearly 2%. The outperformance reflected bargain buying after the recent correction and expectations that domestic demand remains resilient for passenger vehicles and select two-wheeler categories.

Banks added stability, with Nifty Bank up about 0.8%. The sector continues to be treated as a core domestic play, though traders are watching funding costs and deposit competition closely in case oil-driven inflation delays any easing cycle.

Metals were comparatively soft, reflecting uncertainty around global growth and commodity price volatility. FMCG was mixed, as investors weighed defensive allocations against valuation comfort.

Stocks and corporate developments in focus

Adani Enterprises stayed in the spotlight after the National Company Law Tribunal approved its resolution plan for Jaiprakash Associates. The approval clears a major step for Adani’s proposed acquisition and restructuring of the debt-laden group. The deal adds a sizable land bank in Noida and Greater Noida, along with hotels, stalled projects and cement capacity, which could improve Adani’s scale in north India real estate and building materials.

Reliance Industries drew attention after reports said it has begun preparations to file a draft red herring prospectus for a Jio Platforms IPO, potentially by month-end. While timelines and valuations remain fluid, renewed IPO chatter can influence sentiment across telecom, digital ecosystem plays and capital-market intermediaries.

In banking, IDBI Bank remained under pressure in the broader market narrative after the government scrapped the planned strategic sale, with analysts flagging uncertainty on the path ahead. The stock’s sharp fall over recent sessions has made it a key sentiment gauge for disinvestment-related themes.

On the commodities and market infrastructure side, traders tracked developments around exchange products and competition, which kept some exchange-linked names active.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking stock market today moves, the key takeaway is that the rebound is being driven more by positioning and selective comfort in earnings visibility than by a clean improvement in the macro backdrop. The combination of elevated crude and a record-low rupee can quickly tighten financial conditions, especially if global central banks turn more cautious on cuts.

Portfolio approach over the next few sessions is likely to split into two lanes. The first is domestic cyclicals like banks and autos, which can hold up if growth expectations remain intact. The second is exporters like IT, which may benefit from currency moves, but remain sensitive to US demand and guidance from global clients.

Levels and liquidity cues to track next

Near-term, traders will watch whether Nifty can sustain above the 23,700–23,800 zone after the recent recovery. A decisive move higher typically needs confirmation from breadth and continued volatility cooling.

The next set of cues is macro-led:

Fed outcome, crude and the rupee will decide tone

The Fed’s statement and projections will shape risk appetite for emerging markets and influence FII behaviour. Meanwhile, crude’s trajectory remains crucial for India’s inflation expectations and corporate margins.

If oil remains above $100 for longer, market focus could shift quickly to earnings risk for fuel-sensitive sectors and to the policy response on inflation management. If crude cools meaningfully, the current rebound can broaden and sustain, especially as domestic investors continue to provide a stabilising bid.