NSE IPO DRHP: BSE Valuation Risks and Metrics in 2026

NSE’s DRHP filing puts focus back on exchange valuations

BSE’s share price has come under pressure after the National Stock Exchange (NSE) filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), marking the approach of a direct, publicly traded comparable for India’s older listed exchange. The key shift is not operational but valuation-based. Once NSE lists, investors will be able to choose between two listed exchange stocks in the same market, creating a clearer head-to-head valuation contest.

The expected timing is also central to the market’s framing. NSE’s listing is expected before December 2026, and the period until then is likely to keep attention on relative profitability, growth, and multiples across both businesses.

What NSE filed, and where the shares are expected to list

NSE filed a 607-page DRHP with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the BSE on Wednesday. The proposed listing is set to take place on BSE, mirroring the existing cross-listing dynamic where BSE’s own shares trade on NSE.

The filing is important because it turns a long-running market expectation into a formal process. The DRHP creates a clearer framework for investors to evaluate the eventual public price against unlisted market trading levels and other valuation markers that have circulated ahead of the filing.

Offer structure: an OFS-led IPO

According to the provided details, the NSE IPO is entirely an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 149 million equity shares. That means the transaction, as described, involves selling shareholders reducing stakes rather than the exchange raising fresh capital.

In the syndicate of 20 investment bankers, Kotak Mahindra Capital Co. and Morgan Stanley India Co. are among the book-running lead managers. The DRHP filing and the banker line-up underscore that the transaction is now in an active execution phase, even as key commercial terms will ultimately depend on regulatory review and market conditions.

Issue size expectations: large by Indian capital markets standards

Market participants, using NSE’s unlisted market valuation of around ₹5 lakh crore, estimate an issue size of about ₹30,000 crore. That scale would place the deal among the largest IPOs in India’s capital markets since the Hyundai Motor India listing in 2024.

Separately, the IPO is also described as being expected to value the share sale at approximately ₹29,780 crore (over $1 billion), based on indicative grey market prices where the stock is said to trade at at least ₹2,000 a share. Taken together, these figures highlight both the size of the proposed transaction and the role of pre-IPO price discovery in shaping expectations.

The valuation debate: a direct comparable arrives for BSE

The fundamental concern flagged for BSE is the valuation comparison that will become unavoidable after NSE lists. The article data points to NSE having superior profitability metrics than BSE, with PAT margin at 62.9% versus BSE’s 52.3%, and EBITDA margin at 76.5% versus 64%.

This matters because exchange businesses are often valued on a mix of earnings quality, market share durability, and operating leverage. If a higher-margin, higher-profit peer lists at a lower valuation multiple, it can compress the premium commanded by the incumbent listed name. The same comparison could also strengthen the broader “exchange theme” if investors decide both deserve premium valuations, but the near-term read-through for BSE has been framed as a potential pressure point.

What the market is assuming about NSE’s valuation

The expected NSE IPO valuation is described in a wide range: approximately ₹4.7 lakh crore to ₹6 lakh crore, based on institutional share transfers and grey market trades ahead of the DRHP filing.

Using a midpoint issue size assumption of ₹21,000 to ₹25,000 crore and expected equity dilution of 4% to 5%, the implied valuation range is stated as roughly ₹4.2 lakh crore to ₹6.25 lakh crore. This range becomes the anchor for “listed vs unlisted” comparisons and a reference for how BSE’s market capitalisation might be judged once investors can price both exchanges in the public market.

BSE’s current market value and the scale of the gap

For comparison, BSE’s market capitalisation at a share price of ₹3,985 is described as approximately ₹56,000 to ₹58,000 crore. Against the NSE valuation expectations quoted above, the valuation gap is large.

The article data also notes that BSE shares have surged 48% this year, which means part of the current debate is whether BSE can sustain earnings growth to justify its market valuation when a larger peer becomes investable in public markets.

Earnings, market share, and the profitability gap

Operationally, NSE is described as bigger than BSE in business, finances, and market share. NSE reportedly dominates with more than 75% market share across most categories, particularly in equity and derivative trading operations.

The profit comparison is explicit: NSE reported profit of ₹10,302 crore in FY26, almost four times BSE’s FY26 profits of ₹2,334 crore. The profitability comparison is reinforced by the margin data (PAT and EBITDA) cited earlier, which is a key input in how investors compare quality of earnings.

How analysts are framing multiples: P/E, PEG, and growth

Analysts cited in the article are divided on BSE and NSE. One view is that BSE has run ahead of fundamentals, while another points to strong earnings and market share gains as justification for further upside. Gaurav Sharma of Globe Capital Market is cited as preferring NSE for risk-reward, pointing to stronger earnings, dominant share in revenue-generating turnover, and a potential re-rating catalyst from the IPO.

On valuation multiples, BSE is described as trading at 69x/50x FY26/FY27E P/E, with a likely 29% EPS CAGR between FY26 and FY28. For NSE, assuming an IPO price band of ₹1,600 to ₹1,800, it is described as trading at 38x to 43x FY26 P/E, which is presented as cheaper than BSE.

A separate framework is also provided using PEG. NSE is cited at 1.82x based on 18% growth, and BSE at 1.98x based on 26% growth. The same source notes global peers trading at PEGs between four and five, positioning both Indian exchanges as relatively reasonable on that lens.

Key data points at a glance

What SharesNservices said: fair value markers and premium risk

SharesNservices draws a distinction on growth, stating BSE has a higher growth profile than NSE, though the gap is expected to narrow as BSE’s base scales up. On valuation, it put NSE’s base-case DCF at ₹1,908 and blended fair value at about ₹1,715. Adding a 20% IPO premium, it arrived at around ₹2,058 against a current market price of ₹1,900, which it described as essentially fair.

For BSE, it put base-case DCF at ₹3,885 and blended fair value at about ₹2,971, implying the current market price trades at a 23% premium. The same source said NSE offers the stronger risk-reward due to pricing close to fair value, best-in-class margins, zero debt, a large cash balance, a P/E of 32.7 times at a PEG of 1.82 times, and a potential IPO listing catalyst in FY27. For BSE, it noted earnings momentum and market-share gains support current pricing, while adding that most of the re-rating appears priced in.

Market impact: why BSE’s price is reacting now

The pressure on BSE shares is being framed as a response to the arrival of a “direct and publicly traded exchange comparable.” Until NSE lists, BSE has had limited direct listed peer comparison in India for investors focused purely on domestic exchange operators. A listed NSE creates a clearer relative valuation debate that can influence how investors justify BSE’s premium.

At the same time, the article data flags a two-sided possibility: the gap in profitability and profit scale could compress BSE’s valuation premium, but it could also validate interest in exchange businesses as a category. For investors, the immediate question becomes whether BSE’s recent momentum and projected earnings growth can remain strong enough to support current multiples when NSE’s listing establishes a liquid benchmark.

Conclusion: a valuation contest now has a timeline

NSE’s DRHP filing moves the long-awaited IPO from expectation to process, and the expected listing before December 2026 sets a clear window for markets to reassess exchange valuations. The metrics cited so far show NSE with higher profits, higher margins, and dominant market share, alongside valuation assumptions that could look cheaper than BSE on P/E.

For BSE shareholders, the next phase is likely to revolve around whether the company sustains its earnings trajectory and justifies its current valuation as the NSE listing approaches and the market shifts from estimates to an actual listed price.