Oil India shares rise as broker target lifts to ₹639 in 2026

Stock move: Oil India trades higher on BSE

Oil India Ltd shares rose as much as 2.80% in Tuesday’s trade to touch an intraday high of ₹496.30 on the BSE. The move came against the previous close of ₹482.75 per share.

The session gain adds to a broader period of active trading in upstream PSU names, where policy signals and quarterly results have been key triggers. Market participants also tracked a fresh round of broker notes that highlighted valuation support and expectations of improving production trends.

HDFC Securities maintains ‘Buy’, raises target to ₹639

Domestic brokerage HDFC Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ recommendation on Oil India in its latest results-update note. It revised the target price to ₹639 per share.

The brokerage said the revised target implies nearly 29% upside from current levels, and linked the change primarily to its operating and pricing assumptions. HDFC Securities stated that the revised target is premised on oil and gas production growth at a 3% CAGR over FY26-28E and higher crude oil price realisation.

What changed in estimates: EPS raised for FY27 and FY28

HDFC Securities also upgraded its earnings view. It increased its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 24.9% and 14.9%, respectively.

Such revisions typically flow into target price calculations through higher forward earnings assumptions, especially when broker models use a multiple-based valuation framework. In Oil India’s case, the brokerage note also disclosed how it breaks up value across the operating business and investments.

Valuation snapshot: standalone business plus investments

HDFC Securities said it values Oil India’s standalone business at ₹368 per share, based on 7x Mar-27E EPS. It values the company’s investments at ₹271 per share.

This split highlights that the target price is not only a function of near-term operating performance, but also of how the market and analysts assign value to holdings and other non-core components.

Other broker calls: Prabhudas Lilladher flags ₹550 target

Another brokerage update cited in the data set is from Prabhudas Lilladher, which said “Accumulate Oil India” with a target of ₹550.

Broker research entries also show multiple recommendation prices and target prices across different dates. The table below compiles the values that were explicitly listed.

Broker targets and recommendation levels at a glance

Q4FY26 results catalyst and the 52-week high print

A separate update in the provided text notes that Oil India rallied up to 5% on the BSE and hit a 52-week high of ₹531 after reporting results for the quarter ended March 2026 (Q4FY26). The company reported 62% year-on-year growth in Q4 consolidated net profit, backed by a 4.4% increase in revenue from operations.

It also stated the stock had rallied 15% in the last five days at that point. In the same stretch, ONGC rose 7%, while the benchmark index fell 2.3%.

The update also noted Oil India surpassed its previous high of ₹524.15 touched on February 4, 2026.

Policy trigger: royalty rationalisation and GST on royalty issue

The provided text attributes part of the momentum in upstream PSU stocks to a policy announcement. It said Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri announced rationalisation of royalty for India’s upstream sector.

It also flagged that if the GST on royalty issue is upheld in favour of ONGC and Oil India, it could be an additional upside risk. Another brokerage view in the text adds that measures such as these, along with the continued absence of any cap on realisations, support earnings prospects, alongside expectations that production performance should pick up over the next 12 to 18 months.

Key price levels, ranges, and return profile

The data set includes multiple price points and range disclosures across sources. One table summarised Oil India’s current price and 52-week band, while another listed multi-period returns.

Analyst positioning: mix of Buy, Hold, and Sell

According to Trendlyne data cited, out of 19 analysts tracking Oil India, 15 have a ‘buy’ rating, two recommend ‘hold’, and two suggest ‘sell’. Another data point in the text shows “Analysts 12-Month Price Target” average at ₹555.11, implying 43.66% upside versus a price shown as ₹386.40 in that snapshot.

The text also includes an investing-style summary line stating the stock is “trading at 19.3% below” an estimate of fair value, and that earnings are forecast to grow 8.84% per year.

Why the updates matter for investors

The latest brokerage revisions highlight how sensitive upstream valuations can be to two variables that were explicitly cited: production growth and crude realisations. HDFC Securities tied its target change to both, while also raising EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28, indicating a material recalibration in its forward earnings view.

At the same time, the policy discussion around royalty rationalisation and the GST on royalty issue remains a key monitoring point for investors following PSU upstream companies. The market reaction described in the text suggests these policy signals, along with quarterly earnings momentum, have been important near-term drivers.

Conclusion

Oil India’s share price action reflected a combination of broker target upgrades, Q4FY26 earnings strength, and policy-related developments for the upstream sector. With multiple broker targets in circulation, the next set of confirmed updates on production performance, crude realisations, and policy outcomes is likely to remain the key focus for the stock.