Oil prices surge 2026 as Hormuz closure risk grows

What triggered Monday’s spike in crude

Global energy prices jumped on Monday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the imminent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC linked the move to what it described as the United States failing to adhere to ceasefire conditions. The Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime route for global oil flows, so any threat to shipping access quickly changes risk pricing in crude.

In a statement cited by CNN, the IRGC said several vessels passed through the strait on Friday. But it alleged that “the American enemy did not lift the naval blockade of Iranian vessels and ports” despite ceasefire conditions. The statement added that the strait would be closed “from this evening” until the blockade is lifted.

Brent and WTI move sharply higher

Early Monday, Brent Crude rose 4.72 percent to USD 94.65 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 5.51 percent to USD 88.47. The jump reflected a fast repricing of supply risk as traders assessed whether the announcement would translate into actual shipping disruptions.

Separate market updates in the same flow of reports also described prices “hovering” around USD 96.50 for Brent and near USD 98.70 for WTI at other points, highlighting the day’s volatility. The broader message from the tape was consistent: crude was being pulled by headlines rather than fundamentals.

Risk-off cues show up in US futures and gold

The oil move weighed on US equity expectations. Dow Jones Futures dropped 367.44 points, or 0.74 percent, in early trade, as higher energy costs can pressure corporate margins and complicate inflation assumptions.

Gold was slightly softer in the same window, trading at USD 4,807.93 per ounce. The mixed reaction across assets underscored that the dominant driver was the uncertainty around shipping access and the durability of the ceasefire.

How the ceasefire narrative has flipped markets repeatedly

The reporting also captured how quickly crude has swung around developments tied to the US-Iran conflict. On Wednesday of the ceasefire news flow, both Brent and WTI were reported to have fallen by more than 16 percent, with Brent dropping below USD 92 a barrel and WTI trading around USD 95. That move was linked to the two-week ceasefire indication and expectations that energy supplies would be gradually restored.

But earlier, on Monday, April 13, prices had surged more than 8 percent as the US Navy moved to block vessels from accessing Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed USD 6.71, or 7.05 percent, to USD 101.91 a barrel, while WTI rose USD 7.59, or 7.86 percent, to USD 104.16.

MCX crude reflects global pressure

In India, crude prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) moved in the same direction as global benchmarks. On April 13, MCX crude surged nearly 7.4 percent to ₹9,830 per barrel. On April 9, MCX crude was reported up as much as 2.62 percent to ₹9,090 per barrel.

A market participant view in the report described MCX crude futures trading near the ₹9,150 zone after a sharp and volatile decline from the week’s high near ₹11,000. The same commentary said prices were oscillating within a ₹8,800 to ₹9,350 range, with resistance at ₹9,350 to ₹9,400. It added that a sustained breakout could push prices toward ₹9,800 to ₹10,000, while immediate support sits at ₹8,850 to ₹8,800 and a stronger base near ₹8,500.

Key numbers at a glance

India market reaction when crude cooled earlier

When ceasefire optimism drove crude lower in a prior session, Indian markets showed a clear relief rally. The Sensex rose 2,946 points, or 3.95 percent, to close at 77,563, its biggest single-day gain since February 1, 2021. The rupee appreciated 0.44 percent to 92.58 per dollar, and the benchmark 10-year government bond yield fell 14.8 basis points to 6.90 percent as Brent crude dropped below USD 90 a barrel, down nearly 11 percent.

Flows were mixed: foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of ₹2,812 crore, while domestic institutional investors posted net inflows of ₹4,168 crore. The India Vix declined 20 percent to 19.7.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for India’s macro

The reports repeatedly linked crude swings to India’s macro risk because India imports about 85 percent to 90 percent of its oil requirements. One segment cited a jump in India’s crude basket from around USD 69 per barrel in February 2026 to about USD 113 in March.

Another data point in the coverage said every USD 10 per barrel move in crude typically impacts India’s current account deficit by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points of GDP and raises CPI inflation by 20 to 30 basis points, depending on pass-through. That sensitivity is why oil headlines tend to move rate expectations, currency sentiment, and equity risk appetite quickly.

Forecast resets and the range traders are watching

The story also noted that Goldman Sachs revised down its second-quarter 2026 price outlook to USD 90 for Brent and USD 87 for US crude, from earlier estimates of USD 99 and USD 91, citing a reduction in the risk premium and oil flows edging up through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, other commentary in the coverage framed the key question as the durability of the ceasefire, with USD 100 described as a psychological mark and USD 105 to USD 110 cited as strong resistance. The day’s jump after the IRGC statement showed how quickly the market can reinsert a geopolitical premium.

What to watch next

The immediate focus is on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains accessible for commercial shipping and whether restrictions vary by country. One report said Iran would not impose restrictions on vessels belonging to five “friendly” countries, including India, allowing them to pass through even as access remains limited for others.

For investors, the next set of decisive signals will come from official operational updates on maritime traffic and any confirmed changes to the blockade and ceasefire conditions that have driven the latest move in crude.