Oil prices above $100 in 2026 as Hormuz risk rises

What moved crude prices this week

Oil prices rose as markets tracked the Iran war, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and political signals from the U.S. President Donald Trump. Headlines referenced Trump warning “No more Mr Nice Guy” as investors weighed the risk of further escalation. The sharpest moves were tied to supply disruption, not demand data. Reports said the war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency described the situation as the biggest ever oil supply disruption. Against that backdrop, traders pushed Brent back above $100 per barrel in several sessions.

Brent and WTI settle higher amid war-driven supply shock

Crude rallied on Tuesday as supply disruption persisted and Iran denied it held talks with the United States to end the war in the Gulf. Brent futures settled up $1.55, or 4.55%, at $104.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $1.22, or 4.79%, to $12.35. In another update the same day, Brent was quoted at $104.13 and WTI at $12.37 during U.S. hours. Markets also digested the prior day’s volatility, after crude futures had dropped more than 10% on Monday. The price action highlighted how quickly sentiment is shifting on any perceived sign of a ceasefire or renewed attacks.

Trump’s comments and the diplomatic fog

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the United States was talking to “the right people” in Iran and said “we’re in negotiations right now,” while not providing details on envoys or timing. Separate reporting said Iran denied talks with the U.S., contradicting the U.S. messaging that a deal could be reached soon. In a later national address, Trump said the U.S. would escalate its campaign in the coming weeks, and markets reacted with another leg up in crude. Another report said Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. The shifting messaging kept traders focused on headline risk rather than fundamentals.

Strait of Hormuz disruption remains the key variable

Industry sources said transit through the Strait of Hormuz was running at a fraction of its usual volume. A source briefed by Tehran told Reuters Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the strait if a deal was reached to prevent renewed conflict. Even with that conditional signal, markets continued to price in restricted flows. In peacetime, around a fifth of the world’s oil transits through the strait, making any disruption immediately global in impact. The uncertainty is also spilling into liquefied natural gas shipping, compounding concerns for energy importers. This is the core reason crude has repeatedly jumped back above $100 despite occasional pullbacks.

UAE’s reported OPEC exit adds another layer of uncertainty

Headlines also pointed to the U.A.E. exiting OPEC, described as a major blow to the cartel amid a Middle East oil squeeze. The Persian Gulf state reportedly said the move would help it meet changing demand, while analysts framed it as damaging to OPEC cohesion. The reports positioned the development as part of a broader “OPEC fractures” theme. In a market already tight because of war-related disruptions, any perceived weakening of coordinated supply management can amplify price swings. The updates did not provide production targets or timelines, but the signal itself mattered for sentiment.

Stocks, bonds, and India market cues

Risk assets showed mixed reactions as higher energy prices collided with hope for a deal. One session saw the S&P 500 fall 0.5%, the Dow slip 25 points, and the Nasdaq drop 0.9%, with commentary pointing to sinking AI stocks and another climb in oil. In a separate session, the S&P 500 rose 0.80% to 7,022.95 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.60% to 24,016.02, while the Dow fell 0.15% to 48,463.72. U.S. crude in that period settled up 0.01% at $11.29 a barrel, while Brent rose 0.15% to $14.93, supported by a large draw in U.S. weekly crude inventories reported by the EIA. Treasury yields also moved, with the two-year at 3.761% and the 10-year at 4.282% amid caution tied to Middle East hostilities. For India, the feed showed Nifty at 24,042.25, down 50.46, and MCX Gold at Rs 150,436 per 10g, down Rs 1,285, highlighting how risk-off bursts can show up across asset classes.

Key numbers snapshot

Why this matters for energy importers and listed companies

Sustained crude above $100 can tighten inflation math for economies that import a large share of oil, including India, even if domestic retail prices do not move one-for-one. For companies, higher crude can raise input and freight costs across aviation, chemicals, paints, and logistics, while supporting realizations for upstream producers. The rapid swings also complicate hedging decisions for airlines and refiners because daily moves are being driven by geopolitical headlines. Meanwhile, the broader market response suggests investors are weighing two risks at once: war escalation that keeps supply constrained, and sudden ceasefire news that can reverse the crude spike quickly.

Wider corporate and commodity backdrop

Outside oil, the feed also referenced Shell planning to buy Arc Resources to expand in Western Canada, a deal expected to boost production as Canada looks to grow energy exports. It also noted Unity Software reported fourth-quarter revenue of $109 million, up 35% year-on-year, versus a consensus estimate of $162.71 million, while posting a quarterly loss of 66 cents per share. These developments underline the broader theme that energy security and corporate execution are both influencing investor positioning, even as oil dominates macro trading.

Conclusion

Oil’s return above $100 has been driven mainly by the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz and by shifting signals from Washington and Tehran on talks and escalation. Reports of the UAE leaving OPEC added to the sense of instability in supply coordination. Markets are likely to remain headline-led until there is confirmed improvement in shipping flows through the strait or a clearly communicated ceasefire framework. Investors will continue to watch official statements, evidence of transit normalisation, and fresh settlement levels in Brent and WTI for direction.