Oil prices jump 2% as Hormuz disruption persists in 2026

Oil prices extend gains on stalled US-Iran talks

Oil prices added to recent gains on Monday, rising nearly 2% as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled. The move came as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight. The reporting linked the price strength to persistent disruptions in a key global shipping chokepoint. Market attention stayed focused on whether flows through Hormuz can normalise and how quickly Gulf production can recover. The renewed focus on supply risks followed a sharp run-up in prices over the previous week. Brent and WTI had already posted their biggest weekly gains since the start of the war, according to the same report.

Brent and WTI: where prices settled in late trade

Brent crude futures rose $1.16, or 2.05%, to $107.49 a barrel by 2346 GMT, and this was cited as the highest level since April 7. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $16.17 a barrel, up $1.77, or 1.88%. The weekly context remained important for traders assessing momentum. Brent and WTI gained nearly 17% and 13% last week, respectively. Those moves were described as the biggest weekly gains since the war began. The combination of tight physical conditions and shifting diplomatic signals has kept volatility elevated in recent weeks.

Strait of Hormuz constraints keep supply fears in focus

The Strait of Hormuz remained central to the supply narrative. The article said Tehran has largely closed the strait while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iran’s ports. Shipping data from Kpler showed that traffic through the strait stayed limited, with just one oil products tanker entering the Gulf on Sunday. With constrained transit, the market has priced a higher risk premium into crude and refined products. The same backdrop has also fed concern about knock-on effects beyond crude, including refined product availability.

Diplomatic setback over the weekend

Hopes of reviving peace efforts faded over the weekend. The report said US President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Pakistan. The sequence reinforced the perception that negotiations were not progressing. With diplomacy appearing to stall, markets reverted to focusing on physical constraints and military risk around key infrastructure and shipping routes.

Goldman flags ‘extreme’ inventory draws and production losses

Goldman Sachs lifted its oil-price forecasts as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to pressure supply. In an April 27 note, analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said Brent is expected to average $10 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from a previous outlook of $10. Goldman also raised forecasts for the current and third quarters for Brent and WTI, according to the report. Separately, the note cited an estimate of 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses. Goldman said those losses were driving global oil inventories to draw at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels a day in April.

Bank forecasts shift as normalisation timeline moves

In a Reuters dispatch dated April 27, Goldman said it expects Brent to average $10 per barrel and WTI $13 in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower oil production from the Middle East. The bank also projected that exports through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise by the end of June, later than its earlier estimate of mid-May. Goldman tied that shift to slower recovery in Gulf oil production and exports. The report also quoted Goldman on broader risks, noting unusually high refined product prices and product shortage risks.

Citi and Morgan Stanley: different paths, same chokepoint

Other banks have also updated views. Citi raised its Brent outlook for the remainder of 2026, with a base case of $110, $15 and $10 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. Under a bull-case scenario, Citi assumes oil flows through the strait remain disrupted through the end of June and sees Brent spiking to $150 a barrel. Morgan Stanley left its Brent forecasts unchanged, expecting futures to average $110 a barrel in the current quarter, $100 in the third quarter, and $10 in the fourth.

India-linked indicators: MCX crude moves and rupee pressure

The broader shock has also shown up in India-linked indicators cited in the provided text. On April 13, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged nearly 7.4% to ₹9,830 per barrel, alongside a sharp global jump that day. Another update for April 9 cited MCX crude up 2.62% to ₹9,090 per barrel as global prices rebounded. The same collection of updates also noted “Rupee slides to record lows as Brent crude stays above $100,” without providing a specific exchange-rate level.

Key numbers to track

Why the price shock matters for markets

The facts laid out in the reports point to a supply-led shock rather than demand-driven strength. With crude production losses cited at 14.5 million barrels a day and inventory draws estimated at 11 to 12 million barrels a day in April, price sensitivity to shipping and production headlines has increased. Goldman explicitly flagged that the economic risks extend beyond crude, given unusually high refined product prices and shortage risks. For investors, the same conditions can affect inflation expectations and growth assumptions, especially when benchmarks remain above $100.

What to watch next

The next major marker in these forecasts is end-June. Goldman’s base case assumes Gulf exports normalise by the end of June, later than its prior mid-May estimate. Citi’s bull case also hinges on whether disruptions persist through end-June. Until there is clarity on shipping flows, production recovery, and the direction of US-Iran talks, price moves are likely to remain tightly linked to verified updates on Hormuz transit and regional output.