OneSource FY28: $400m Semaglutide Ramp, 40% EBITDA

What changed this quarter

OneSource Specialty Pharma’s latest commentary and reported Q3FY26 numbers show a business working through near-term disruptions while holding firm to medium-term targets. Management said the quarter included a few days after “pattern expiry”, but shipments on GLP products began, supporting expectations of better quarterly performance ahead. The company also reiterated its long-term FY28 guidance of $100 million organic revenue with around 40% EBITDA margin, and separately referenced $160 million EBITDA as the implied outcome of that margin profile.

The near-term discussion was dominated by semaglutide, where customer approvals in Canada were delayed during the quarter, affecting revenue recognition. Even so, management pointed to approvals and launches progressing across markets, and described capacity expansion as on track to match expected demand.

Q3FY26 performance and the reported drag

OneSource reported Q3FY26 revenue of ₹2,903 million, down 26% year-on-year, and attributed the decline primarily to delayed customer approvals for semaglutide in Canada. EBITDA was ₹173 million for the quarter, as cited in the same results summary. Another report referenced a sharp stock reaction after the company posted a net loss of ₹470 million (₹47 crore) for the December quarter, compared with a profit in the prior year, alongside a 26% revenue drop.

Management also referenced a 47% sequential growth driven across service offerings, supported by an India semaglutide commercial launch toward the end of the quarter. On a full-year basis, the company reported ₹14,216 million revenue, a 2% decline year-on-year, in the cited commentary.

Semaglutide as a core driver across regulated and emerging markets

Management positioned semaglutide as a key contributor to the FY28 plan and said OneSource is the first and only CDMO partner for the first three generic semaglutide approvals in highly regulated markets, specifically the US and Canada. In Canada, management said shipments have commenced to both partners, and that partners are preparing to bring generic semaglutide to patients.

The company described Canada as the largest market outside the US and said approvals there validate the capability of the generic industry to get a complex peptide approved in a major regulated market. Market sizing referenced in the commentary included IQVIA data of about 12 million units for Canada, and a statement that Dr. Reddy’s indicated the market can absorb roughly 12 million pens in the first year.

Management also said that post Indian approval, several emerging markets are expected to grant approvals to partners over time. It added that volume uptake is expected to be serviced in line with capacity expansion, with the company “fully committed” to capacity for GLP opportunities.

Capacity expansion: lines, throughput, and the $100 million capex plan

OneSource said its capacity expansion is progressing on track. Management noted that a “second line” is now at site, undergoing engineering and qualification trials, with availability expected in Q2 to meet increasing demand from emerging markets.

On current operating capability, management said it can do 50,000 to 60,000 units per day, and that expanding batch size could raise output to about two to two-and-a-half times. It also said capacity is planned to expand four to five times over the next 12 to 18 months.

A separate capacity snapshot cited OneSource operating capacity of 40 million cartridges and 38 million pre-filled syringes (as of Sep’25). The same document described an expansion roadmap funded by $100 million over four years, including:

• Cartridges capacity from ~40 million to ~220 million
• Pre-filled syringes capacity from ~38 million to ~50 million
• Vial capacity from ~28 million to ~50 million
• Microbial capacity from 1 KL to 6 KL

The report also stated that GLP-1 capacity has been fully booked by customers via take-or-pay contracts or reservation fees, and that the company has relationships with 20 customers for commercial quantities of semaglutide.

FY28 guidance: what the company is sticking with

Management reiterated FY28 guidance multiple times, stating $100 million in organic revenue with around 40% EBITDA margin. In the semaglutide discussion, the FY28 guidance was also framed as $100 million revenue and $160 million EBITDA, consistent with a ~40% margin.

Alongside this, the company also referenced a higher FY28 revenue number when including proposed acquisitions. The results summary stated guidance of $100 million including recently proposed acquisitions, with an EBITDA margin outlook of around 40%, subject to shareholder approvals.

Inorganic growth and revised scale targets

One report said the board approved acquisitions in 2QFY26, including intellectual property assets and manufacturing facilities in Poland of Steriscience, and a vertically integrated anti-infectives manufacturing facility of Brooks Steriscience Ltd. The same source said that upon integration, the two plants are expected to contribute incremental revenue of $100 million and $16 million to $10 million in EBITDA by FY28.

Management also indicated it would continue to evaluate opportunities to progress beyond the FY28 baseline guidance, but suggested reassessing certain strategic options in about two years.

Stock reaction and broker commentary

A reported market update said OneSource shares plunged 18% after the company reported the December-quarter loss and revenue decline linked to delayed semaglutide approvals in Canada. Despite the weak quarter, management reaffirmed FY28 targets in the same set of reports.

Broker notes cited in the provided text included a “BUY” recommendation with a target price of ₹2,060 (from a cited price of ₹1,792, implying 14.9% upside over 12 months). Another cited note from ICICI Securities maintained “BUY” with a target price of ₹2,475, and highlighted a potential delay of about one quarter in the Canadian launch timeline for generic semaglutide approvals.

Key numbers at a glance

What investors will watch from here

Near-term performance will likely hinge on how quickly customer approvals and launches translate into steady dispatches, particularly in Canada and other emerging markets referenced by management. The company has tied its confidence in a “strong FY27” to visible demand and a commercial ramp-up throughout FY27, while simultaneously bringing additional lines through engineering and qualification.

Investors will also track whether expanded capacity comes online in the timelines described, especially with management stating that volume uptake is expected to be aligned with capacity expansion. On guidance, OneSource has reiterated FY28 targets even after the weaker quarter, and has also discussed a higher revenue ambition when including proposed acquisitions, subject to approvals.

Conclusion

OneSource’s Q3FY26 narrative is a mix of delayed approvals affecting near-term revenue and a reaffirmed FY28 roadmap built around semaglutide-led growth and capacity expansion. The next set of milestones will be customer launch timing in Canada and approvals across emerging markets, alongside execution of the stated capacity additions and integration steps tied to proposed acquisitions.