Petrol, diesel price hike before May 15: Key cues

What is driving the renewed talk of a hike

Petrol and diesel prices in India may be revised before May 15, according to sources cited by India Today TV and Business Today, as global crude prices remain elevated. International crude climbed to around $126 per barrel this week, after being near $10 per barrel last year, before cooling but staying above $110 a barrel in parts of the week. The move has been linked in reports to West Asia tensions, restrictions around ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and fresh uncertainty involving the US and Iran.

Despite the global rise, Indian retail pump prices have largely remained unchanged, with a long freeze in place since early April 2022. In several cities, petrol has been seen around ₹95 per litre without major revision. This gap between global input costs and retail prices has pushed the financial strain onto public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) and, to an extent, the government.

Retail prices have stayed frozen since April 2022

Multiple reports in the provided material state that petrol and diesel prices have remained frozen for nearly four years. During periods when crude fell, state-owned oil firms reportedly made profits that helped offset losses when prices rose later. But with crude now staying above $100 per barrel, the balancing act appears harder.

In Delhi, petrol is currently priced at ₹94.77 per litre and diesel at ₹87.67 per litre, as cited in one report. Industry statements attributed to Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), speaking on behalf of the industry, have said petrol and diesel prices as well as domestic LPG rates are not being increased despite the surge in international energy costs.

Under-recoveries and per-litre losses highlighted by sources

The reported financial pressure on OMCs is central to the expected revision. Business Today cited sources estimating heavy under-recoveries of nearly ₹30,000 crore per month. Separately, a senior oil ministry official was quoted as saying that state-owned fuel retailers were incurring losses of about ₹20 per litre on petrol and roughly ₹100 per litre on diesel during the freeze.

Another source-based claim cited in the material said “the government and OMCs are currently absorbing up to ₹24 per litre on petrol.” Emkay Global Financial Services estimated under-recoveries of approximately ₹18-20 per litre for petrol and diesel at a crude basket price of around $110 per barrel, even after an excise duty cut of ₹10 per litre announced on March 27, 2026.

What kind of hike is being discussed

The potential size and timing of a hike varies by source. One report said petrol and diesel could surge up to ₹5 per litre amid rising global crude rates, based on government sources. Another India Today report indicated petrol and diesel retail prices could rise by ₹4-5 per litre within the next week, along with a domestic LPG cylinder increase of about ₹50.

At the higher end, analysts had earlier flagged the possibility of ₹25-28 per litre increases after the end of polling for assembly elections in West Bengal on April 29. A Kotak Institutional Equities estimate also suggested a ₹25-₹28 per litre hike could be warranted if crude remains at current levels, though the same report indicated the increase is unlikely to be immediate or abrupt and could be phased.

Clarifications, denials, and the rumour check

Alongside expectations of a hike, official messaging has focused on preventing panic buying and countering false claims. PIB dismissed an “order” circulating on social media alleging an immediate hike of ₹10 for petrol and ₹12.50 for diesel, calling it fake and stating the Government of India had not issued any such order.

Separately, in a press briefing, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Petroleum Ministry, said there was “no proposal at present” to increase retail petrol and diesel prices and urged people to avoid panic buying. These statements coexist with other government-source comments in the material saying a hike “cannot be ruled out” in the near future.

LPG and other fuels: changes already visible

While retail petrol, diesel, and domestic LPG were reported unchanged, the material notes that other fuel categories have seen price revisions. State-owned oil firms have increased prices of commercial LPG, industrial diesel, 5-kg LPG and jet fuel sold to international airlines in line with costs.

A specific example cited is the increase in 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder prices by ₹993 effective May 1, and 5-kg LPG prices by ₹261. Government sources also indicated domestic LPG cylinders could become costlier by ₹40-50 per cylinder, with other reports putting the expected rise around ₹50-₹60.

Election timeline and why the May window matters

The timing around elections appears repeatedly in the reports. West Bengal polling ended on April 29, and some reports linked the possibility of revisions to the post-poll window. Another report cited panic buying ahead of elections concluding on May 29, 2026, after which consumers expected a price adjustment.

Within this context, some sources told India Today TV that petrol and diesel prices could be hiked before May 15. The provided material also labels parts of the coverage as a “developing story” with a timestamp of May 8, 2026 (20:57 IST).

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: where the pressure is concentrated

The immediate market impact sits with OMC economics, because retail prices have remained stable while crude has risen. The gap shows up as under-recoveries and per-litre losses cited across the reports, which can influence fuel retailers’ quarterly performance and cash flows.

On the consumer side, the government’s stated objective in these reports has been to limit the inflationary pass-through. Emkay noted that a steeper increase could trigger inflationary pressures and broader macro risks, and suggested a 10% increase in retail fuel prices as a balance between reducing OMC losses and containing consumer impact.

Analysis: what to watch next

Two parallel signals run through the material: public-facing reassurances that there is no proposal “at present,” and source-driven indications that revisions are being considered because the cost pressure is persistent. The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and elevated crude above $100 per barrel form the macro backdrop cited.

Brokerage commentary adds structure to the debate. Emkay expected an initial hike of ₹10 per litre, while also saying it does not see the entire burden being passed to consumers. If crude remains above $100 for the next two to three quarters, Emkay said further calibrated hikes are likely, and retail fuel prices could rise by ₹18-20 per litre over the next three to six months, though it assigned a low probability to a prolonged Gulf stalemate.

Conclusion

Reports and source-based inputs point to a possible petrol and diesel price hike before May 15, while official statements continue to emphasise adequate supplies and caution against rumours. With crude having touched around $126 per barrel and remaining above $100, the pressure on OMC under-recoveries and per-litre losses remains the central driver. The next clear trigger in the reporting is the post-election window, along with any formal communication from the government or OMCs on retail pricing.