Petrol, diesel prices: Review possible in 2-3 months (2026)

What the oil minister signalled

Union petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri has indicated that state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) could review petrol and diesel prices over the next two to three months, but only if international crude prices remain subdued and stable. Speaking at a press briefing in New Delhi, Puri said OMCs have absorbed much of the recent surge in global crude prices linked to the conflict in West Asia. He framed any discussion on retail price cuts as contingent on the current softness in crude lasting long enough to change the effective cost of what is being refined and sold. In his words, companies are still carrying inventory bought at higher prices, along with higher insurance and freight. That lag, he suggested, is why the recent fall in crude has not immediately translated into lower pump prices.

Why prices may not fall immediately

Puri repeatedly pointed to the time gap between buying crude and selling retail fuels. He said India is currently using crude stock bought about two months earlier, when prices were higher due to the West Asia situation. Because of this, a near-term cut in petrol and diesel prices is “not anticipated” based on the minister’s remarks, even if spot crude prices appear lower. Puri described the possibility of a reduction as a “hypothetical situation” unless the lower price environment persists for two to three months. The underlying logic is that only when lower-priced crude purchased recently reaches Indian refiners and is processed, the average cost base could ease enough for a retail review.

OMCs’ role in absorbing crude volatility

The minister’s comments also highlighted that OMCs did not fully pass through the sharp movement in global crude prices to consumers. He said they absorbed much of the increase instead of transferring the entire burden to retail customers, limiting the increase in pump prices. This approach, while supportive for consumers, also raises questions around the financial pressure on the state-run retailers when input costs rise. The government’s messaging remains focused on stability of prices and supplies, even as the international market remains sensitive to geopolitical risk.

A separate caution: price hikes not ruled out if losses persist

In another set of remarks at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026, Puri did not rule out a fuel price hike if financial stress on OMCs continues. He said the government is monitoring the situation as public sector oil firms face rising costs while keeping retail fuel prices stable. He also flagged the need to assess how long retailers can sustain losses from selling petrol, diesel and LPG below cost. While he refused to speculate on the timing of any hike, the direction of travel, as presented, depends on crude trends, fiscal considerations and inflation management priorities.

What the data points in the statements show

The article text includes several specific figures on retail prices, under-recoveries, and per-unit losses borne by oil companies. Puri stated that petrol and diesel prices have not increased over the last four years, even after a reported 50 percent surge in input crude prices. Petrol and diesel were cited at Rs 94.77 a litre and Rs 87.67 per litre, respectively. Domestic LPG prices were raised in March by Rs 60 per cylinder, but were still described as below cost.

OMCs’ losses were described as significant if elevated crude prices persist while retail prices remain unchanged. The combined under-recovery on petrol, diesel and LPG for the current quarter was stated at about Rs 1.98 lakh crore, with the “actual loss” about Rs 1 lakh crore. The article also reports per-unit losses of Rs 14 per litre on petrol, Rs 42 a litre on diesel and Rs 674 a litre on LPG.

Supply position: inventories and reserves cited by the government

On supply, Puri said there was “absolutely no cause for anxiety” and that there were “no shortages anywhere”. He cited inventory cover across fuels, stating India holds around 60 days of crude oil supplies, 60 days of LNG inventories and 45 days of LPG reserves. Elsewhere in the text, New Delhi was also described as having oil and gas reserves sufficient for 76 to 80 days. The messaging in both versions is consistent on the central point: supply is positioned as adequate, even as global energy flows face disruption.

Possible competitive spillover to private fuel retailers

The minister’s signal that state-run OMCs could review prices if crude remains stable may also influence private retailers. The text notes that any decision could put pressure on rival private retailers to revisit their own prices if international oil markets remain stable. This matters because retail price moves by the large state-run networks often shape broader market pricing behaviour. However, the minister’s position remains conditional and tied to sustained crude stability and the pass-through lag from inventory already in the system.

Key figures at a glance

Market impact: what the statements imply

For consumers, the immediate takeaway is that a near-term cut is unlikely on the minister’s own logic, because the system is still processing higher-cost crude bought earlier. For investors and the energy sector, the more material issue is the pressure on OMC profitability while retail prices remain controlled. The loss and under-recovery figures cited in the article illustrate the scale of stress that can build in a volatile crude environment.

For the broader fuel retail market, the conditional possibility of a review in two to three months sets an expectation framework. If crude remains stable and lower-priced barrels feed into refineries, OMCs may have room to adjust retail prices, which could force private peers to respond. Conversely, if the West Asia crisis escalates further, the minister also cautioned the situation could become “concerning”, which would keep the focus on supply continuity and cost management.

Why this matters: policy and timing, not just crude levels

The comments underscore that pump prices do not move one-for-one with daily crude swings. Timing is shaped by inventory cycles, freight and insurance costs, and the policy choice to smooth consumer prices during geopolitical shocks. The statements also reflect a balancing act: protecting consumers from volatility while managing the financial health of state-run fuel retailers.

Conclusion

Hardeep Singh Puri’s message is that any petrol and diesel price review depends on sustained softness in global crude for the next two to three months and the arrival of cheaper crude into the refining system. Separately, he has also flagged that prolonged losses at OMCs could eventually force a reconsideration of retail pricing. In the near term, the government’s stated priority remains stable supply, supported by the inventory cover figures cited, while the next key checkpoint is whether crude stays low long enough for OMCs to reassess retail rates.