Q4 FY26 Results Preview: Banks, Airtel Lead Watchlist

Why this results week matters

India’s Q4 FY26 earnings season is set to pick up pace with major lenders and index-heavy names in focus, even as global uncertainty keeps risk appetite fragile. Brokerages are largely pencilling in steady, mid-single-digit growth for large banks, with close attention on margins, deposit trends, and asset quality. A separate Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) preview also points to a wider set of sectoral drivers for Nifty earnings, where financials and telecom are expected to do much of the heavy lifting.

For investors, the immediate test is whether large banks can defend profitability as rate transmission and funding costs pressure net interest margins (NIMs). And beyond banks, the market will track whether telecom’s profit jump and metals’ rebound are enough to offset softer pockets like capital goods and consumer durables.

Motilal Oswal’s Nifty and universe earnings snapshot

MOFSL estimates its coverage universe and Nifty-50 earnings to grow 10% and 6% year-on-year (YoY), respectively, in Q4 FY26. Ex-financials, it expects earnings growth of 9% for its universe and 4% for Nifty-50. Ex-metals and oil and gas, the brokerage projects earnings growth of 9% for its universe and 5% for Nifty-50 in the quarter.

For the full year, MOFSL expects FY26/FY27/FY28 earnings to grow 13%/14%/18% YoY for its coverage universe and 6%/17%/15% YoY for the Nifty-50. Ex-financials, FY26/FY27/FY28 earnings for its universe are projected to rise 14%/12%/17% YoY. Ex-metals and oil and gas, the brokerage projects FY26/FY27/FY28 earnings growth of 9%/20%/18% YoY for its universe.

Sector drivers: where the incremental growth is expected

MOFSL expects overall earnings growth to be anchored by a cluster of sectors. It flags financials led by NBFC-lending (+30% YoY) and private banks (+12% YoY), metals (+27% YoY), telecom (an 11x YoY jump in profit driven by Bharti Airtel and reduced losses at Vodafone Idea), technology (+11% YoY), and automobiles (+12% YoY). It also expects retail (+47% YoY), EMS (+17% YoY), and consumer (+10% YoY) to post healthy double-digit growth.

The brokerage says these sectors are likely to contribute 80% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. In contrast, utilities (+5% YoY), oil and gas (+3% YoY), real estate (+2% YoY) and healthcare (+1% YoY) are expected to deliver low single-digit growth.

MOFSL also flags a few pockets that may hurt aggregate earnings: capital goods (-6% YoY), consumer durables (-5% YoY), and cement (-1% YoY). It adds that automobiles, capital goods, logistics, technology, and utilities contributed to the majority of the reduction in its FY26 earnings estimate.

Banks kick off the earnings season on April 18

HDFC Bank has said its Board of Directors will meet on Saturday, April 18, 2026, to consider and approve audited standalone financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026. The bank will also likely recommend a dividend for FY26 and fix a record date.

A separate market note also indicates HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank will release Q4 FY26 earnings on April 18. Investor attention is elevated after the Nifty Bank index fell 12.1% over the past three months, making commentary on margins and asset quality particularly relevant for near-term sentiment.

HDFC Bank: what brokerages are modelling for Q4 FY26

Brokerage estimates cluster around modest profit growth, with NII seen rising at a mid-single-digit pace. Nomura projects Q4 net profit at INR 18,900 crore (7% YoY), with NII at INR 33,400 crore (4% YoY). It expects loan growth around 12% YoY and deposits nearly 14% YoY, aided by end-of-quarter accretion. Nomura also sees NIM moderating by 4 basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 3.4% due to the full transmission of a December 2025 rate cut.

MOFSL expects net profit of INR 19,200 crore (up 9% YoY and 2.9% QoQ) and NII of INR 33,660 crore (up about 5% YoY and 3.2% QoQ). It estimates advances at INR 2,928,000 crore (about 12% YoY) and deposits at INR 3,018,000 crore (up 11.2% YoY). It also pegs gross NPA and net NPA at around 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively, and credit costs at 42 bps.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan forecasts net profit of INR 19,070 crore (up 8.2% YoY) and NII of INR 33,770 crore (up 5.3% YoY). It expects loan growth of 12.1% YoY and deposit growth of 14.4%.

Margins, deposits, and asset quality: key monitorables

Across brokerages, the most consistent debate is around NIMs. One preview puts NIM at 3.39% versus 3.46% and expects gross NPA at 1.2% versus 1.24% QoQ. The same set of estimates pegs net interest income at INR 33,665.77 crore versus INR 32,070 crore and provisions at INR 3,448.35 crore versus INR 3,193.05 crore.

Brokerages also highlight deposit mobilisation trends as a core variable for FY27. Management commentary on margin outlook, deposit growth strategy, and credit demand is expected to influence market reaction after the results.

Market backdrop: uncertainty and what it means for lenders

Another brokerage note highlights a challenging operating environment for Indian banks amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia, citing elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures. It also flags potential strain on household cash flows, especially in rural and lower-income segments.

Even so, Systematix Institutional Equities expects limited impact on Q4 FY26 performance, with loan growth forecast at about 14% YoY, and asset quality expected to stay stable overall. It adds that NIMs may remain flat or slightly decline for large banks, while smaller and mid-sized banks could see expansion.

Key numbers at a glance

What investors typically watch on results day

For HDFC Bank and peers, the first scan is usually the NII trend relative to NIM movement, because that combination shapes operating leverage in a quarter. The second is deposit growth and mix, since funding cost and liquidity conditions are central to margin guidance. Asset quality indicators and provisioning behaviour also matter, especially in a backdrop where brokerages are monitoring household cash flows.

Dividend-related announcements may add another layer of interest, since HDFC Bank’s board agenda includes a likely dividend recommendation for FY26.

Conclusion

Q4 FY26 expectations point to steady banking earnings with margin pressure still a live issue, while MOFSL’s broader preview keeps financials and telecom at the centre of Nifty earnings delivery. The next clear catalyst is April 18, when HDFC Bank is scheduled to consider audited results and a possible FY26 dividend recommendation, alongside other key bank results expected the same day.