Reliance Industries: Jio IPO by 2026 lifts targets

Stock jumps as Jio files draft IPO papers

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) shares traded firm after Jio Platforms filed draft papers for an initial public offering (IPO), sharpening investor focus on value unlocking. On Monday’s intra-day trade, RIL rose up to nearly 3 percent to ₹1,345.45 on the BSE following takeaways from the group’s 49th annual general meeting (AGM). The progress on the long-awaited Jio IPO was cited as the biggest driver behind the move in the stock.

The proposed listing is expected to offer a clearer market valuation for Reliance’s telecom and digital services business, which brokerages increasingly describe as one of the group’s biggest growth engines. The IPO has also been characterised as India’s largest ever, with the process seen as a potential value-unlocking event for existing investors in Jio Platforms.

What the “largest ever IPO” means for Jio’s global investors

The listing is expected to crystallise returns for several marquee investors in Jio Platforms. Existing shareholders cited in the context include Facebook (Meta), Google, Mubadala, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Silver Lake, among others. They are described as staring at 3-4 times returns over six years if the IPO and valuation expectations play out.

Nomura said Jio Platforms has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), paving the way for a likely IPO by the end of 2026. In the same note, Nomura estimated Jio’s implied valuation at $117-127 billion.

Brokerages stay positive after the AGM

Brokerages remained broadly bullish after the AGM, pointing to multiple growth drivers across telecom, retail, energy and emerging businesses. CLSA maintained its ‘outperform’ rating and set a target price of ₹1,800 per share, saying the target implies upside of more than 34 percent from current levels. Nomura retained a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,640 per share.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on RIL with a target price of ₹1,655 per share, while Nuvama also held a ‘buy’ view with a target of ₹1,765. Emkay maintained a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,680, and Systematix assigned a target of ₹1,700 with the same rating.

Jefferies was also cited with a ‘buy’ rating and a target price of ₹1,675 per share in one post-AGM view.

Jio expected to remain the biggest growth driver

Motilal Oswal expects Reliance Jio to remain the biggest growth driver for RIL. The brokerage said digital services are likely to contribute around 80 percent of RIL’s incremental EBITDA over FY26-28. It also expects an 18 percent reported EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28E.

The drivers listed include wireless tariff hikes, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of homes and enterprise offerings. Motilal Oswal’s model builds in a wireless tariff hike of around 15 percent in 2QFY27.

AI becomes a stated catalyst across the group

Several brokerages highlighted artificial intelligence as a key part of Reliance’s next phase. CLSA said Reliance is positioning AI as a core capability across businesses and expects the first AI compute capacity to be commissioned by the end of 2026.

Nomura pointed to the Jamnagar Sovereign AI Hub, saying it is targeting its first 120 MW capacity by the end of FY26. Separately, another brokerage note said growth of the AI business is tied to a 120 MW milestone by FY26-end. These AI milestones were discussed alongside Reliance’s moves in clean energy and manufacturing.

New energy and manufacturing: revenue expected from FY27

Nomura expects the group’s new energy business to start generating revenue from FY27. It added that solar module and cell manufacturing facilities have already been commissioned.

Jefferies also linked the investment cycle in new energy to monetisation timelines, stating that production of solar modules and energy storage systems is anticipated in FY27. Post the potential Jio IPO, Nomura said new catalysts could come from ramp-up of the new energy business and revenue contribution starting FY27, growth of the AI business, and a potential listing of the retail business.

Retail and FMCG ambitions surface as longer-term triggers

Beyond telecom and energy, brokerages pointed to consumer businesses as important value-creation levers. MOSL said Reliance’s plan to more than double consolidated EBITDA over the next five years is supported by five pillars: oil-to-chemicals (O2C), AI infrastructure, new energy, FMCG and exports.

MOSL also highlighted Reliance Consumer Products’ ambition to scale revenue to ₹100,000 crore by FY30. Jefferies similarly referenced accelerating investments in FMCG, describing a push toward ₹100,000 crore by 2030 in the cited note.

A second Jefferies note flags risks: tariff timing and IPO schedule

In a separate update, Jefferies cut its target price as it pushed out assumptions on a Jio tariff hike and factored in a likely delay in the Jio IPO, while maintaining a ‘buy’ rating. The brokerage flagged two reasons: potential inflation risk from rising energy prices that could affect telcos’ ability to take up tariffs, and the awaited final gazette notification for the minimum 2.5 percent float for large IPOs.

Jefferies said this could potentially delay Jio’s IPO beyond 1HCY26, which in turn could delay tariff hikes. It pegged Reliance’s consolidated equity value at ₹1,750 per share versus its prior target of ₹1,820, and noted RIL was at ₹1,391.10 at the time of the report.

O2C strength and geopolitical supply disruptions enter the narrative

Jefferies also said the drag from Jio was offset by a sharp earnings upgrade for the O2C business. It linked the upgrade to Reliance’s scale and sourcing flexibility amid a spike in refining and petrochemical spreads after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In that assessment, Jefferies said the stock traded 1 standard deviation below its long-term average, suggesting limited downside amid earnings support. It argued that while the Jio IPO overhang and delayed tariff triggers temper near-term upside on the digital side, the O2C windfall and steady growth in retail and upstream keep Reliance positioned defensively in the current environment.

Key numbers and broker targets at a glance

Why the market is watching the next two years

The common thread across the broker commentary is that the Jio IPO has moved from a long-running expectation to a formally initiated process with draft filings. That raises the importance of execution timelines, especially when some broker views point to possible delays linked to regulatory requirements for IPO float and tariff timing.

At the same time, the AGM-led commentary pulled attention toward multiple growth engines running in parallel. Telecom growth assumptions are being tied to tariff hikes, share gains and enterprise scale-up, while AI capacity commissioning and a planned 120 MW build-out are being positioned as group-wide enablers. New energy monetisation from FY27, along with manufacturing commissioning already underway in solar modules and cells, adds another set of milestones investors are likely to track.

Conclusion

Reliance Industries’ stock reaction reflects renewed focus on the Jio Platforms IPO after the DRHP filing, with brokerages also highlighting AI and new energy as the next set of measurable catalysts. The market’s near-term checklist now includes IPO timeline clarity, tariff hike visibility, and execution milestones such as AI compute commissioning by end-2026 and new energy revenue contribution from FY27.