Reliance Industries Q3 FY26: EBITDA up 6.1%, Jio hits 250m

Reliance’s Q3 FY26 print sets the tone

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) reported its December quarter (Q3 FY26) numbers at a time when the stock has swung sharply between optimism on telecom triggers and concern around retail momentum. The quarter was marked by a consolidated EBITDA increase, but investors and analysts focused on the divergence between businesses. Reliance Retail’s comparatively weaker performance was a recurring theme in brokerage notes, even as the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and digital businesses were cited as offsets. Alongside the results, developments around Jio tariffs and the proposed Jio listing stayed in the spotlight. Brokerages framed 2026 as a year when multiple levers could influence RIL’s valuation, including monetisation and new energy ramp-up.

Consolidated EBITDA rises 6.1% YoY

For Q3 FY26, RIL reported consolidated EBITDA of ₹50,932 crore, up 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and up 6.1% year-on-year. A key drag highlighted by analysts was Reliance Retail, where gross revenue growth was described as muted at 8.1% YoY. Retail EBITDA grew 1.3% YoY to ₹6,915 crore, which contributed to the view that the consumer side was softer than expected in the quarter. Management, as cited in market coverage, downplayed near-term weakness and indicated confidence of returning to double-digit retail revenue growth. Systematix said consolidated EBITDA and PAT were largely in line with its estimates, with retail underperformance offset by strong profit from O2C and Digital Services. The split in segment momentum has been central to how brokerages have presented RIL’s near-term setup.

Jio’s operating metrics: subscriber additions and broadband growth

Brokerage commentary on Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd (RJIL) pointed to operating resilience even without immediate tariff hikes. BNP Paribas noted that Jio Platforms’ performance met expectations, helped by subscriber growth and upgrades to higher-value plans. RJIL revenue increased 11.8% YoY, while adjusted EBITDA rose 14.6% YoY. During the quarter, RJIL added 89 lakh users, including 25 lakh broadband subscribers. Total broadband users were cited at around 2.5 crore. Separately, the broader news flow around RIL’s quarter referenced Jio’s 5G subscriber base crossing 250 million.

Tariff changes and brokerage triggers in focus

RIL shares also reacted to telecom pricing news and brokerage calls during the period. Market coverage noted the stock rising nearly 3% on Jio tariff changes alongside positive brokerage commentary, with the price moving as high as ₹1,413.60 on the NSE in one session. The role of tariffs in lifting ARPU expectations continues to be a core part of the investment case presented by analysts. One report cited Jefferies projecting 13% consolidated EBITDA growth in FY27, with Jio expected to do the heavy lifting, and Jio revenue growth expected at 22% YoY in FY27 supported by tariff hikes and home broadband momentum.

Jio IPO timing: “on track” but dependent on norms

The Jio IPO timeline was repeatedly linked to government norms and minimum float rules for large listings. Management was cited as saying the Jio IPO was on track, unless the finance ministry notification on large IPO minimum float norms is significantly delayed, according to JM Financial Institutional Securities. Another set of coverage suggested a Jio listing of $1.0-4.5 billion could be slated for the first half of 2026, subject to finalisation of government norms. Jefferies also flagged a delayed Jio tariff hike and the likelihood of a Jio IPO postponement as reasons to cut its target price in one note. Despite the timing uncertainty, brokerages consistently treated the listing as a meaningful catalyst for the stock.

Stock moves: sharp swings around earnings and headlines

RIL’s price action reflected changing narratives through early 2026. In one session following the December quarter results, the stock fell 3.72% to an intraday low of ₹1,403.30 and later closed at ₹1,413.25, down 3.04%, with the market capitalisation down ₹60,016.30 crore for the day. Separately, coverage noted that in January, RIL’s market price declined 9.5% month-to-date and corrected 12% from its all-time high of ₹1,611.20 touched on January 5, 2026. Another update showed the stock up 0.66% to ₹1,362.10 versus the previous close of ₹1,353.30, with 1-week return at +1.34% and 1-month return at -3.7%.

Russian crude report denial and O2C disruption tailwinds

One bout of volatility came after Reliance denied a report about Russian crude shipments allegedly headed to its Jamnagar refinery. Around that period, the stock declined as much as 5.18% to ₹1,496.30 on January 6, a day after it hit a record high of ₹1,611.80. On the business side, Jefferies also highlighted gains for O2C amid Middle East supply disruptions that were described as supporting refining and petrochemical margins. This interplay between headline risk and segment fundamentals has shaped the stock’s near-term trading behaviour.

Brokerages: targets cluster, but with different reasons

Brokerage targets and ratings remained broadly constructive across reports, though assumptions differed. Citi cited triggers including a higher valuation for Jio, raising its implied enterprise value to $145 billion from $135 billion, and said it saw up to 17% upside for RIL. Jefferies reiterated a Buy with a target price of ₹1,600 in one note, and in other coverage was cited with targets of ₹1,750 and ₹1,830. BNP Paribas reiterated an Outperform rating with a target of ₹1,855, implying 31.14% upside at the then market price of ₹1,414.50. JM Financial reiterated Buy with a revised target price of ₹1,730, pointing to comfortable valuations after the correction and projecting a 14-16% EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years. Nuvama suggested Buy with a target price of ₹1,808, PL Capital retained Buy with ₹1,683, and ICICI Securities retained Buy while revising its target to ₹1,740.

Capital-raising, new energy timelines, and block trades

Reliance also approved a plan to raise up to ₹25,000 crore through issuance of non-convertible debentures, as referenced in Q4 results coverage. On the capex side, Systematix said RIL is expected to commission its fully integrated 10 GWp annual solar giga factory by end of FY26, and also flagged Jio’s IPO as a trigger in early FY27. Another brokerage note referenced valuing the New Energy business at 15 times FY30 to arrive at a valuation of ₹120 per share. Market activity included a reported block deal of 67 lakh RIL shares sold in large trades, estimated at over ₹890 crore.

Key facts snapshot

What matters for investors from here

The data points in circulation show a market balancing three threads: retail execution, the timing and impact of Jio tariffs, and the sequencing of a potential Jio IPO under evolving listing norms. The Q3 FY26 EBITDA growth of 6.1% YoY indicates resilience at the consolidated level, but the market has reacted quickly when retail numbers disappoint. At the same time, Jio’s subscriber additions, broadband scale and EBITDA growth have helped support the view that telecom can carry a larger share of growth if pricing improves. New energy milestones, such as the expected commissioning of a 10 GWp annual solar giga factory by end-FY26, remain another part of the longer-term narrative cited by analysts.

Conclusion

Reliance’s Q3 FY26 outcome reinforced a mixed picture: steady consolidated EBITDA growth and strong telecom operating metrics, alongside softer retail profitability. Near-term attention is likely to stay on tariff actions, clarity on the Jio IPO framework, and progress on stated new energy timelines that brokerages have already built into their valuation frameworks.