SBI Cards Q4 FY26 preview: profit seen up 19% YoY

Stock rises ahead of earnings announcement

Shares of SBI Cards and Payment Services were trading higher in the afternoon session ahead of the company’s March-quarter and full-year FY26 results, which are scheduled to be announced after market hours. The stock was up 1.55% at Rs 681 compared with the previous close of Rs 670.60. The company’s market capitalisation was about Rs 64,694 crore. The stock has fallen 13% since the Q3 results were announced on January 28, reflecting how closely investors have been tracking asset quality and growth trends in the credit card segment.

Board meeting scheduled for April 27, 2026

In a filing to the stock exchanges, SBI Cards said its Board of Directors will meet on Monday, April 27, 2026. The agenda includes considering and approving the audited financial results for the quarter and the year ended March 31, 2026. With results due after market hours, trading during the day has reflected positioning ahead of the announcement and commentary on growth, costs and credit performance.

Axis Securities: profit growth led by lower provisions

Axis Securities expects SBI Cards’ net profit to rise 18.7% year-on-year to Rs 634 crore in Q4, compared with Rs 534 crore a year ago. The brokerage also sees net interest income (NII) rising 6.7% to Rs 1,728 crore from Rs 1,620 crore in the year-ago quarter. Provisions are expected to decline 7% to Rs 1,158 crore from Rs 1,245 crore. Axis Securities said collective investment fund (CIF) growth continues at 1-2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), spends growth is expected to remain healthy, and receivables growth is likely to stay modest.

Margin and cost expectations: flattish NIM, modest opex

On profitability drivers beyond credit costs, Axis Securities expects net interest margin (NIM) contraction to be contained, with margins likely to remain flattish on a QoQ basis. Operational expenditure growth is expected to be modest, as per the brokerage. For investors, these assumptions matter because in credit cards, a combination of yields, funding costs and operating leverage typically drives earnings momentum, especially when growth normalises.

Motilal Oswal: revenue estimate and EBITDA projection

Motilal Oswal expects revenue at Rs 1,675.4 crore in Q4, implying 3.4% year-on-year growth. The brokerage estimates net profit at Rs 587 crore, up 10% on year. It also pegged EBITDA at Rs 1,946 crore for the quarter, as per the expectations cited in the report. The range of estimates highlights that street models are currently sensitive to small changes in credit cost assumptions, receivables growth and operating expenses.

What investors will monitor in management commentary

Axis Securities listed three key monitorables for the Q4 print: the outlook for new customer additions and spends growth, commentary on the trajectory of credit costs, and the receivables mix along with signs of a growth pick-up. These points have become more important as lenders tighten underwriting and as investors focus on whether growth can recover without weakening portfolio quality.

Q3 snapshot: profit up, spends surged, asset quality tracked closely

In the December quarter (Q3), SBI Cards reported a 45% year-on-year rise in net profit to Rs 557 crore, led by higher spend-based income. Revenue grew 11% to Rs 5,127 crore, and total card spends jumped 33% to Rs 1,14,702 crore. Gross NPAs were reported at 2.86%, while the cost-to-income ratio stood at 56.8%. The Q3 numbers provided evidence of strong spends momentum, but market focus has also remained on how quickly asset quality improves and whether cost ratios trend lower.

RBI underwriting change: credit score threshold and growth impact

The stock fell 4.7% after the RBI issued a circular requiring a minimum 700 credit score for new unsecured credit card issuances, as cited in the provided details. The report said around 28% of SBI Cards’ FY26 new card issuances involved customers with credit scores below this threshold. That implies new card growth could slow significantly under tighter underwriting. At the same time, the report noted the existing base of about 15 million cards and revolve income are unaffected.

Valuation and decision points highlighted in market commentary

The stock was cited at around Rs 680, about 21% below its peak, with an argument that the near-term volume growth could slow due to tighter underwriting. Another point cited was that at around 28x P/E, the stock is not cheap for a single-product financial company with 3.2% GNPA, while tighter underwriting could support a credit quality improvement thesis over about four quarters. The 52-week low was cited at Rs 620, and the report flagged Q2 FY27 NPA data as a decision point for investors tracking credit quality progress.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: what the Q4 outcome could change

Ahead of the results, the stock’s movement has reflected a mix of near-term caution and longer-term expectations on credit quality. The RBI-linked tightening, and the estimate that 28% of FY26 new issuances were below the 700 score threshold, frames the immediate growth debate. For investors, Q4 commentary on receivables growth, portfolio mix, provisions and early-stage delinquencies will likely influence expectations for FY27. The report also cited an analyst consensus 12-month target range of Rs 780 to Rs 900, with catalysts described as NPA improvement below 2.5% and a recovery in receivables growth, while noting these are estimates and not guaranteed.

Conclusion: focus on growth quality, not just growth

SBI Cards heads into its Q4 and FY26 results with the stock higher on the day but still down since the Q3 announcement. Brokerage estimates point to year-on-year profit growth, with provisions expected to soften, while growth indicators remain a key focus. The next immediate milestone is the board meeting on April 27, 2026, when the company is set to publish audited results and provide updates on customer additions, spends, receivables and credit costs.