SBI Life Q4 FY26: Broker targets up to ₹2,550

What put SBI Life shares in focus

SBI Life Insurance Company is set to remain in focus after reporting its Q4 FY26 earnings, released after market hours on Wednesday. The insurer posted a marginal year-on-year decline in quarterly profit, but premium growth stayed strong. Brokerages largely retained positive recommendations, pointing to steady operating indicators and the company’s track record across a challenging regulatory phase for life insurance. The results also kept attention on near-term softness in annualised premium equivalent (APE) and value of new business (VNB). Even as some metrics came in below expectations, the Street commentary remained tilted towards resilience and longer-term visibility.

Q4 FY26 headline numbers

For the January to March quarter of FY26, SBI Life reported net profit of ₹804.64 crore, down 1% YoY. Net premium income rose 16% YoY to ₹27,684 crore, with the company citing demand across segments after GST reforms. APE increased 5.5% YoY to ₹5,750 crore, but this was noted as below expectations. VNB declined to ₹1,630 crore from ₹1,670 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Operating solvency remained comfortable, though it moderated from last year’s level.

Premium growth versus softer APE

The quarter showed a clear divergence between headline premium income and APE momentum. Premium growth of 16% YoY indicated continued policy inflows and demand, supported by changes following GST reforms mentioned by the company. But APE growth at 5.5% YoY was flagged by brokerages as a softer print relative to what the market was building in. Nuvama, in particular, described total APE growth as muted. The split between individual and group segments was also a key part of how brokerages interpreted the quarter.

VNB and margin trends in Q4

SBI Life’s VNB in Q4 FY26 fell to ₹1,630 crore versus ₹1,670 crore a year ago. Margins weakened in the quarter, with VNB margin contracting to 28.4% from about 30.5% in Q4 FY25. The margin movement was an important input for brokerage notes, especially around the impact of GST-related input tax credit (ITC) and product mix. While Q4 showed contraction, Nomura highlighted that the overall FY26 VNB margin stood at 27.5%. Nomura also noted that this was 10 basis points ahead of its estimates and at the upper end of SBI Life’s 26-28% guidance.

Solvency and operating indicators

The solvency ratio stood at 190% in Q4 FY26, compared with 196% a year earlier. Broker commentary also referenced experience metrics such as mortality and persistency. Nomura pointed to better-than-expected mortality and persistency trends supporting a positive operating variance for FY26. HDFC Securities highlighted return on embedded value (RoEV) of about 20%, supported by favourable experience variance. These operating indicators helped brokerages stay constructive despite the quarter’s softer APE and VNB.

Nomura: Buy maintained, target trimmed

Nomura maintained a ‘Buy’ rating but reduced its target price to ₹2,440 per share from ₹2,445. The revised target implied an upside potential of more than 29% from the previous closing price of ₹1,884.80 on the NSE. Nomura said SBI Life managed well in a tough year and deserves a premium valuation for delivering stable performance through disrupted times. It also referenced a challenging regulatory landscape since FY23. Nomura noted SBI Life delivered 14-16% APE-VNB CAGRs and average RoEVs of 20.9% over FY22-26, and compared this with HDFC Life and Axis Max Life over the same period. The target cut, according to Nomura, was driven by a 3% miss on economic variance.

HDFC Securities: Buy as margins face GST ITC impact

HDFC Securities maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹2,400 per share, implying an upside potential of more than 27% from the previous close. The brokerage said APE and VNB growth came in at 13% and 14% YoY respectively, slightly below expectations. It flagged a margin impact of around 150 basis points due to GST input tax credit, partly offset by a higher non-par product mix. HDFC Securities also noted that the ULIP mix continues to decline as the company shifts towards higher-margin traditional products. It reiterated SBI Life’s distribution advantage through SBI. The brokerage revised growth estimates to a 14-15% CAGR over FY26-28 and referenced valuation at 2.1x March 2028 estimated embedded value.

Nuvama: Buy, but flags weaker group trends

Nuvama maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on SBI Life with a target price of ₹2,390 per share, implying nearly 27% upside from the previous closing price. It said Q4 FY26 performance was muted as total APE growth was only 5.5% YoY. Nuvama noted individual APE grew 7.8% YoY, while group APE declined 13.8% YoY. It also said VNB was below estimates, against expectations of 3.3% growth. The brokerage highlighted that group protection fell around 54% YoY, weighing on overall group business growth.

How other broker notes frame the broader setup

Beyond the Q4 read-through, earlier brokerage notes also kept SBI Life on radar. Morgan Stanley, in a separate note linked to December-quarter performance, raised its price target to ₹2,550 from ₹2,510 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing consistent VNB growth supported by improving margins and product mix. It said the ₹2,550 target implied around 24% upside and valued the stock at 17x FY28 embedded value and VNB. Around Q3 FY26 results, reports also noted SBI Life’s shares slipped 3.3% intraday to ₹1,984.65 on the BSE and traded at ₹2,018.25 at 10:54 AM, down 1.67%, while the Sensex was down 0.51% at 81,922.43.

Key numbers and brokerage targets at a glance

Market impact and what investors are tracking

The immediate market setup is shaped by a small profit decline, strong premium growth, and mixed new-business indicators. Brokerages are focusing on whether the Q4 margin pressure linked to GST ITC remains contained and how product mix shifts play out, especially the move towards higher-margin traditional products and lower ULIP mix referenced by HDFC Securities. Investors are also likely to track the APE trajectory, given that Q4 APE growth of 5.5% YoY was repeatedly described as below expectations. Segment trends flagged by Nuvama, including weaker group APE and a sharp drop in group protection, may remain a near-term monitoring point. At the same time, Nomura’s comments on operating variance supported by mortality and persistency trends, along with RoEV around 20% referenced by HDFC Securities, form the base of the constructive stance.

Conclusion

SBI Life’s Q4 FY26 results showed a marginal YoY dip in profit to ₹804.64 crore, while net premium income grew 16% YoY to ₹27,684 crore. APE and VNB were softer than some expectations, and VNB margin fell to 28.4%, but brokerages broadly retained Buy recommendations. Nomura, HDFC Securities and Nuvama kept targets clustered around ₹2,390-₹2,440, while Morgan Stanley’s earlier note carried a ₹2,550 target. The next set of updates investors will watch are the trajectory of APE, the mix shift towards non-ULIP products, and the extent of GST-related margin impact reflected in subsequent quarters.