Sensex, Nifty seen higher as crude drops 5% on truce

Global cue: relief rally after US-Iran deal framework

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 were set for a firm start on Monday as global markets rallied on signs of de-escalation in West Asia. The trigger was optimism after the United States and Iran agreed on a framework for a deal to end their war in the region. Reports also indicated that final points of an initial peace deal had been approved, with details on a signing ceremony expected shortly. The shift in tone reduced immediate worries around energy supply disruptions. For equity markets, the clearest transmission channel was crude oil, which fell sharply and eased broader inflation concerns. That combination supported risk appetite across Asia and carried into Indian pre-market indicators.

GIFT Nifty points to a gap-up start

Early indicators were constructive. GIFT Nifty traded around the 23,400 zone in early morning trade in one update, implying a gap-up opening of more than 200 points for the spot Nifty. Another update showed GIFT Nifty at 23,945, up 254 points or 1.07%, also signalling a strong opening. While the prints differed across snapshots, both pointed to the same direction: a positive open backed by global cues and lower oil. The pre-market strength mattered because it arrived after a sharp move in the prior session, suggesting optimism had carried over rather than faded.

Friday’s surge: best single-day gain in over two months

Domestic markets had already logged a strong rally on Friday as investors reacted to falling crude prices and hopes of a US-Iran agreement. The Sensex jumped 1,695.40 points, or 2.30%, to close at 75,527.95, while the Nifty 50 gained 461.30 points, or 1.99%, to end at 23,622.90. Separate reporting described these as the strongest single-day gains for both indices since April 8. The move was broad-based, with wider indices also participating. Nifty Midcap 100 rose 1.35% and Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 1.55%, while Nifty 100, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 advanced more than 1%.

Early trade snapshots: benchmarks extend gains

Market strength was visible in early trade prints as well. In one early session update, the S&P BSE Sensex rose 873.88 points, or 1.18%, to 74,706.43, while the NSE Nifty50 climbed 236.40 points, or 1.02%, to 23,398.00. Another early Monday update put the Sensex up 908.98 points at 76,317.85 and the Nifty up 262.65 points at 23,977.70. Around 9:30 am in another snapshot, Sensex was up nearly 855 points near 76,270 and Nifty50 gained 251 points to around 23,971, moving closer to the psychological 24,000 mark. These figures highlighted continued follow-through buying as oil cooled and global sentiment improved.

Crude oil slides: the key macro lever for India

The biggest stated trigger across reports was the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Several readings were cited as the situation evolved. Brent crude was reported down 3.95% to $13.88 a barrel in one update, while US WTI fell 4.68% to $10.91. In a separate Friday context, Brent was reported down 1.59% at $18.94 per barrel and WTI down 1.47% at $16.42. In Monday-related updates tied to peace optimism, Brent futures were reported down 4.55% at $18.83 and WTI down 4.73% at $12.03, with other prints showing Brent around $18.31, $17.76 or $17.69 and WTI around $11.30 or $11.04. Despite differences across timestamps and sources, the common message was clear: oil moved lower meaningfully, including a drop below the $100 mark in multiple updates.

Why Strait of Hormuz headlines moved markets

A core reason oil reacted was renewed confidence that supply routes would remain functional. The proposed interim peace agreement was expected to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Comments attributed to US President Donald Trump were central to the shift in sentiment. Reports said he indicated Washington could sign a peace agreement with Iran as soon as the weekend and that he had cancelled planned military strikes against Tehran due to progress in negotiations. Later updates also said a memorandum of understanding had been “largely negotiated.” With the threat of a major supply disruption reduced, oil prices eased and equity risk appetite improved.

Market impact: inflation, rupee sentiment, and breadth

Lower crude is closely watched in India because it can influence inflation expectations and the import bill. Reports explicitly linked the fall in oil to easing concerns over inflation and the impact of expensive energy imports on the Indian economy. On Monday, broad-based buying across sectors was reported, alongside references to easing volatility and a stronger rupee adding support. The move also lifted the tone across market capitalisation segments, with midcap and smallcap indices rising more than 1% in the session described.

Key numbers at a glance

Levels traders cited: 24,000 on Nifty in focus

The 24,000 zone on Nifty featured repeatedly as a near-term psychological level. One trading view noted that Nifty could move toward 24,000, while also highlighting that sustainability above the previous week’s high would be important for bullish momentum. The same view cited immediate support around 23,600 to 23,500. For Bank Nifty, a level of 54,400 was highlighted as a threshold, with 55,000 mentioned as a potential next zone if strength sustains. These were presented as technical reference points rather than forecasts.

Conclusion: peace optimism and oil remain the pivot

The market’s near-term direction in these updates was driven largely by geopolitics and crude oil. Optimism around US-Iran talks improved global risk appetite and pulled oil lower, supporting Indian equities in both pre-market indications and regular trading updates. With reports suggesting final details of an initial peace deal were approved and a signing ceremony announcement could come shortly, traders were likely to continue tracking official developments alongside crude price moves and global cues.