Tata Power FY30 targets: ₹1 lakh cr revenue, ₹10k PAT

Why Tata Power is back in focus

Tata Power is in the spotlight after fresh brokerage commentary and management updates pointed to a defined set of FY30 targets and a larger clean-energy transition plan. Motilal Oswal reiterated a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of ₹500 per share, citing long-term earnings visibility across transmission, renewables and distribution. The company’s internal targets include reaching ₹1,00,000 crore revenue and ₹10,000 crore profit after tax (PAT) by FY30, compared with FY25 revenue of ₹65,478 crore and net profit of ₹4,775 crore. The stock has also been discussed widely due to expected developments around its Mundra plant and the pace of renewable capacity additions. Separately, technical commentary referenced the stock trading near its 52-week high, with support and resistance levels highlighted.

Snapshot of key market metrics provided

As per the data shared, Tata Power’s market capitalisation is ₹1,27,606 crore and the current market price (CMP) cited is ₹399. The 52-week high and low are ₹418 and ₹342, respectively. Valuation and return ratios cited include a P/E of 33.7x, book value of ₹118, ROCE of 10.8% and ROE of 11%. The same dataset notes a five-year profit CAGR of 45.5%, alongside EPS rising from ₹5.45 in FY22 to ₹12.43 in FY25. Working capital efficiency also improved, with debtor days moving from 40.6 to 31.8 days.

FY25 performance and quarterly datapoints mentioned

The article inputs include FY25 revenue of ₹65,478 crore and net profit of ₹4,775 crore. For Q3FY25, one report cited consolidated net profit of ₹1,188 crore, while another mentioned PAT of ₹1,118 crore for the December quarter. Another disclosure referenced consolidated adjusted PAT of ₹1,025 crore, up 14.5% year-on-year, supported by performance in generation, cell and module operations, Odisha discoms and a lower tax rate. It also noted standalone PAT of ₹409 crore, down 52% year-on-year due to lower other income of ₹207 crore. These datapoints show that different profit measures were discussed across updates, reflecting varying scopes (consolidated vs standalone and adjusted vs reported).

Vision 2030: revenue, profitability and EBITDA targets

Multiple notes converge on management’s FY30 financial ambition: revenue of ₹1,00,000 crore and PAT of ₹10,000 crore. Motilal Oswal also highlighted a target to double EBITDA to ₹30,000 crore by FY30. One investor note framed the PAT ambition as a 2.5x increase over FY24, with an additional detail that renewables could contribute ₹5,000 crore, or 50% of FY30 net profit. The same input set suggested the FY30 plan implies an 18% to 19% earnings CAGR from FY25. A longer-dated transition goal was also referenced, with a vision to reach 100% clean energy by 2045, and a lower thermal share in the mix by 2030 (around 30%) as stated in the provided text.

Mundra plant: SPPA discussions and profit sensitivity

A recurring operational catalyst is the Mundra plant. Motilal Oswal said Tata Power was in advanced discussions to conclude a new special power purchase agreement (SPPA) mechanism for Mundra, similar in nature to Section XI, expected to enable power scheduling from January 2026. The inputs also claimed that “Mundra resumption alone” could add ₹400 to ₹600 crore to PAT. Broker commentary linked this to better utilisation and improved earnings visibility for the asset, if the proposed mechanism is finalised and implemented.

Capacity roadmap: renewables, total capacity and revisions

Tata Power’s installed and operational capacity was cited at around 16 GW, including about 7.1 GW of renewable energy. The company’s target is to scale total installed capacity to around 30 GW by 2030, with renewables targeted at around 20 GW. Motilal Oswal flagged that the FY30 operational renewable capacity target was reduced by 13% to 20 GW from 23 GW earlier, and the overall installed capacity target for FY30 was reduced to 30 GW from 33 GW. Management commentary also included a renewed emphasis on captive generation, with an annual capacity addition target of 2 to 2.5 GW starting FY27.

Solar manufacturing, rooftop solar and new technology options

Management commentary referenced a 10 GW wafer and ingot plant proposal, estimated to cost ₹6,500 crore, positioned as backward integration for solar manufacturing. The company also hosted an analyst meet at a 4.3 GW cell and module manufacturing facility in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu. Rooftop solar was discussed with segment margin indicators of 14.5% for smaller systems and 9.1% for large commercial systems, as per the notes. Another target mentioned was installing 1 million rooftop solar systems across Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Nuclear optionality was referenced through exploration of small modular reactors (SMRs) with 20-50 MW capacity.

Transmission and distribution: scale targets and customer base

Motilal Oswal highlighted that Tata Power aims to scale its transmission portfolio to around 10,000 circuit kilometres by 2030 and emerge as a meaningful participant in the HVDC segment. In distribution, the brokerage noted improved payment discipline and said the segment remains a policy focus area for the government. Tata Power’s customer base expansion target was cited at about 40 million by FY30, up from around 12.8 million currently. Odisha discoms were also referenced among the drivers supporting adjusted profitability in the quarter.

Capex plan through FY30 and segment allocation

A capex estimate of ₹1,46,000 crore for FY25-30 was cited, with 60% intended for the renewable business and 27% for transmission and distribution. Separately, an annual capex target was mentioned as being raised to ₹25,000 crore from ₹22,000 crore previously. Another note referenced capex plans of ₹84,200 crore in FY24-27. These figures were presented alongside the FY30 earnings targets to support the company’s build-out across renewables, networks and distribution.

Shareholding and retail participation noted

The shareholding snapshot provided said promoters (Tata Sons) are stable at 46.86%. DIIs were shown increasing from 15.95% to 17.20%, while FIIs were described as stable at around 10%. Separately, retail participation was cited at over 43.36 lakh investors holding the stock as of September 30. These datapoints are often watched for signals on institutional positioning and market breadth in ownership.

What brokerages and technical commentary are saying

Motilal Oswal maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of ₹500 per share. Other views cited in the inputs include Nuvama Institutional Equities with a ‘Reduce’ call and a target of ₹343, while CLSA maintained an ‘Underperform’ with a target of ₹351. Elara Capital stayed with a ‘Buy’ call but reduced its target to ₹488, citing slower-than-anticipated renewable capacity addition. JM Financial maintained a ‘Buy’ with a target of ₹456, and Axis Capital gave a ‘Buy’ call with a target of ₹462. Technical commentary shared alongside the fundamentals cited support at ₹360-380 and resistance near ₹418-420, with RSI described in a 60-72 zone.

Key figures mentioned (₹ crore unless noted)

Conclusion: what to track next

Tata Power’s FY30 roadmap combines a scale-up in renewables, continued network expansion and distribution improvements, alongside a clearer push into solar manufacturing. The near-term developments to watch, based on the inputs, include progress on the Mundra SPPA mechanism expected to enable scheduling from January 2026 and the execution pace of capacity additions from FY27. Investors are also likely to track whether the revised renewable capacity target of 20 GW by FY30 is achieved within the broader 30 GW installed capacity plan. Brokerages remain split on valuation comfort, but the core debate in the material provided stays centred on execution timelines versus the FY30 financial targets.