US Fed meeting 2026: India time, livestream, rates

What is happening at the June 16-17 Fed meeting

The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on June 17 after a two-day meeting that began on June 16. Markets and economists broadly expect the central bank to keep interest rates on hold as officials continue to grapple with stubborn inflationary pressures. The June decision is also notable because it is the first policy meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.

At the previous meeting, the Fed left its key interest rate unchanged, with officials assessing the impact of persistent inflation and looking ahead to a leadership transition. That backdrop continues into this week’s meeting, with attention on whether the Fed’s statement and projections signal any shift in how policymakers view inflation risks.

Meeting schedule, decision time, and India timings

The policy meeting is scheduled for June 16-17. The Fed will release its policy statement and rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on June 17. A press conference led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.

For investors in India, the decision is due at 11:30 p.m. IST on June 17. Warsh’s remarks in the press conference are scheduled for 12:00 a.m. IST on June 18, based on the official timetable referenced in the article text.

Where to watch the Fed decision and Warsh press conference

Investors can watch the press conference through official Fed platforms. The Fed’s livestream is available on its website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/. The press conference will also be broadcast live on the Federal Reserve’s official YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/federalreserve.

The article text also notes that the post-meeting press conference will be streamed live on NDTV Profit’s YouTube channel, in addition to the Federal Reserve’s official platforms.

Consensus view: rates likely to stay at 3.50% to 3.75%

Market expectations in the provided text are consistent: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The article describes this outcome as “almost certain,” adding that the range has been maintained through the year.

Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged this week, citing inflation above 4% and a cautious policymaking stance. Another view in the text, from Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager at Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund, also characterises the Fed as being in a “wait-and-see mode” amid mixed economic signals.

Why the June meeting matters: inflation, forecasts, and messaging

While the base case is no change in rates, the meeting still matters because the Fed is set to release its policy statement and updated economic projections. The text highlights the Summary of Economic Projections and the closely watched “dot plot,” which is used to reflect policymakers’ expectations for the path of interest rates.

The most recent dot plot referenced in the article, published after the March meeting, indicated that Fed officials expect only one rate cut in 2026. With inflation described as stubborn and above 4% in the text, investors will pay close attention to how the updated projections align with that earlier signal.

Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair

June is described as Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting as head of the Federal Reserve. The text notes Warsh has long been sceptical of providing forward guidance and may steer the Fed toward a more neutral stance, leaving open the possibility of either rate cuts or hikes depending on incoming data.

The article also frames the meeting as a key early test for Warsh, occurring alongside persistent inflation concerns and pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. In this setting, phrasing in the statement and the tone of the press conference are likely to be parsed closely, even if the rate decision itself is unchanged.

What futures markets are pricing in

Multiple market-based indicators cited in the text point to a very high probability of no change at the June meeting. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders assign a zero percent chance to either a cut or an increase at the June announcement. Another portion of the text says fed funds futures imply 99% odds of no change.

Beyond June, the article points to expectations of limited movement until the final meeting of the year on December 8-9. For that meeting, the text cites a 60% probability of a quarter-point increase. Separately, it notes that as of Tuesday morning there was a 59% likelihood assigned to a 25-basis-point-or-greater increase this year, down from 68% the previous week.

The text also cites Polymarket odds: a 69% chance of rates staying the same this year and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while CME Group’s assessment is stated as showing a 0% probability of cuts this year.

Longer-horizon expectations mentioned in the article

The Reuters-cited section in the provided text says analysts believe interest rates will be on hold through 2026. It also notes UBS forecasts two 25-basis-point reductions in March and June 2027.

These longer-dated expectations matter because they frame why the Fed’s projections and dot plot can influence market pricing even when the current meeting is expected to be uneventful on rates.

Key facts at a glance

Market impact: what Indian investors may track tonight

The immediate market relevance for Indian investors is timing and communication. The announcement arrives late in India at 11:30 p.m. IST, with the press conference at midnight, so reactions can spill into Asian trading hours the next day. The policy statement, updated forecasts, and dot plot are likely to be as important as the rate decision because they can shape expectations about whether the next move is a hike, a cut, or a longer pause.

With the policy rate expected to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%, the most actionable information may come from how the Fed describes inflation risks and whether the projections reinforce the March dot plot’s signal of only one cut in 2026.

Conclusion

The June 16-17 Fed meeting is expected to end with interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the event still carries weight because it is Kevin Warsh’s first decision as Fed Chair and includes updated economic projections. Investors in India can track the policy statement at 11:30 p.m. IST on June 17 and Warsh’s press conference at 12:00 a.m. IST on June 18 via the Fed’s official website and YouTube livestreams.