US-Iran ceasefire: Hormuz blockade, talks in 2026

Why markets are watching the Strait of Hormuz again

The United States and Iran have moved between threats, military action and diplomacy, with the Strait of Hormuz emerging as the key pressure point. US President Donald Trump said a US naval “blockade” involving shipping transiting the strait had begun, even as reports also described a temporary ceasefire framework. For investors globally, the strait matters because it typically handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments, making any disruption a direct risk to energy prices, freight costs and supply chains.

At the same time, Tehran has used backchannel routes and intermediaries to keep talks alive. Iranian state media reported that a new proposal for talks with the United States was sent through Pakistan, acting as a mediator, and that it was delivered on a Thursday evening. Details of that proposal were not made public.

Trump’s public stance: no early end, then “conflict terminated”

In one set of remarks, Trump ruled out an early end to hostilities and said he was “not satisfied” with Tehran’s latest proposals. He also rejected the possibility of a cease-fire agreement in that moment, while describing divisions within Iran. Separately, he told reporters there were two paths: diplomacy or escalating to direct military action.

In another development, Trump said the United States went to war with Iran because “lunatics can’t have a nuclear weapon,” and stated that he informed the US Congress that the conflict had been terminated. He claimed US military action prevented Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state and referenced the use of B-2 bombers. He also asserted Iran suffered major losses across naval and air capabilities and said Iran’s leadership had been wiped out.

Pakistan’s mediation and the Islamabad channel

Pakistan’s role appears central in the diplomatic thread running alongside the military escalation. Reports said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif helped mediate and later invited Iranian and US delegations to meet in Islamabad on a Friday. A White House official also said Trump spoke with Sharif and Pakistan Field Marshal Asim Munir to close a two-week ceasefire deal.

Iranian state media separately said Tehran sent a new proposal for talks through Pakistan. With details not disclosed publicly, the headline fact for markets is that the communication line has remained open, and that Pakistan has been presented as an intermediary by multiple parties.

Hormuz and the “blockade”: the immediate flashpoint

Trump said “right now there’s no fighting” and described the situation as a “blockade.” He added that Iran was doing “absolutely no business” and said the blockade would continue “until we get it done.” He also threatened the elimination of Iranian ships if they hinder the blockade.

Iran criticised US plans to blockade its ports and warned that if its maritime security is threatened, “no port” in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman would be safe. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran would stop counter-attacks and provide safe passage through the waterway, in the context of a two-week ceasefire arrangement tied to safe passage.

The two-week ceasefire framework tied to reopening

Reports said the US and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at pausing the joint American-Israeli military campaign, in return for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he agreed to a two-week ceasefire less than two hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the strait or face attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that the ceasefire was “double sided” and linked it to “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of Hormuz. As the deadline approached, reports also said US and Israeli strikes intensified and hit infrastructure including railway and road bridges, an airport and a petrochemical plant, and that US forces attacked targets on Kharg Island, home to Iran’s main oil export terminal.

Iran’s 10-point plan and the nuclear sticking points

The text describes an Iranian 10-point framework that included sanctions relief and acknowledgement of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Separate reporting also listed points including non-aggression, Iran retaining authority over the strait, acceptance of enrichment, lifting primary and secondary sanctions, ending UN Security Council and IAEA Board measures, compensation, US withdrawal of combat forces, and cessation of war on multiple fronts including Lebanon.

But there are clear contradictions across updates on whether the US accepted or rejected the framework at different times. One section states the United States rejected the 10-point framework, while another says Trump called the proposal a “workable basis” for negotiation. A senior US official was quoted saying Iran rejected key US demands in nuclear negotiations, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment and dismantling major enrichment facilities.

US messaging on uranium: “no enrichment” and “taken care of”

Trump was also reported to have said there will be “no enrichment” of uranium in Iran. In a separate exchange reported with AFP, he said Iran’s uranium would be “perfectly taken care of” under the two-week ceasefire deal.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US reserved the opportunity to act if needed regarding buried nuclear material, while also saying Iran’s defense-industrial base was “completely” destroyed and that it could no longer build missiles. In another Pentagon briefing, he said Iran’s defence systems suffered heavy losses and missile capabilities weakened, while assessments indicated it still retained significant operational capacity.

Regional military posture: expedited arms transfers

The US also moved to speed up arms transfers to regional allies. Secretary of State Marco Rubio approved expedited military sales to Israel, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, bypassing a standard congressional review. The State Department agreements were described as nearly $1 billion, including air defense missiles and laser guidance systems, with the total cited as over $1.6 billion.

India-linked comments on shipping and diplomacy

On shipping, Iran’s envoy to India said Iran is in touch with India on ships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz and referred to good relations with the Indian government. India was also reported to have welcomed the ceasefire.

These statements matter for Indian importers and exporters because the strait is a key corridor for energy and freight. Even when fighting pauses, talk of blockades and counter-threats can influence shipping risk perceptions and insurance costs.

Key facts at a glance

Market impact for India: energy, shipping and risk pricing

For Indian markets, the clearest transmission channel is energy and freight. The updates repeatedly centre on the Strait of Hormuz, and any perceived risk to transit can raise uncertainty for crude oil supply routes and shipping. The mention of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, adds focus on oil infrastructure risk in the region.

The second channel is risk sentiment. Rapid shifts between escalation rhetoric, claims of conflict termination, and a time-bound ceasefire can keep global volatility elevated. For Indian investors, such periods typically increase attention on oil-sensitive sectors, logistics-dependent companies, and firms with exposure to Middle East trade routes, without implying any particular price outcome.

What to watch next

The next datapoints flagged in the updates are diplomatic: the proposed meeting in Islamabad, and whether the US participates in in-person talks, which the White House press secretary said had not been decided at one point. Separately, the continuation or extension of the ceasefire remains uncertain, with Trump saying he may not extend it and warning military action could resume if negotiations fail.

Conclusion

The latest US-Iran developments combine a two-week ceasefire framework tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz with parallel claims of an active naval blockade and hard-line positions on uranium enrichment. With Pakistan positioned as a mediator and shipping safety repeatedly referenced, the next confirmed meetings and official clarifications on the ceasefire terms are likely to set the near-term direction of risk sentiment.