US-Iran peace deal lifts futures, oil at 3-month low

Markets open to a risk-on tone

Stock-index futures rose while oil prices dropped after the United States and Iran confirmed they have finalized a deal aimed at ending an almost four-month conflict. The move set up financial markets for what traders described as a stronger start to the week, following heightened volatility tied to energy-supply disruption fears. The announcement came ahead of a shortened holiday week, amplifying attention on Sunday evening price action. A signing event is anticipated on Friday in Switzerland, with multiple reports pointing to Geneva as the venue.

The agreement also includes plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East shipping route that has been largely inaccessible since the conflict began in February. Markets have treated the strait as the central risk point, given its role in global oil flows and the potential for disruptions to ripple through inflation expectations and growth assumptions.

What the US and Iran said about the deal

President Donald Trump said on social media that the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran was “now complete.” He also said he would authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the United States naval blockade, tying the reopening to formalization later in the week. Trump later noted that additional time would be required to clear mines from the narrow passageway.

On the Iranian side, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said on state television that Iran had reached a peace agreement with the US and that it includes a cessation of all conflict fronts. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed the news on X, posting that an “agreement reached.” The deal was described in one report as an “immediate and permanent” end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Signing, location, and the role of mediation

Multiple updates pointed to Friday as the key date for the formal signing. One report said a signing event is expected on Friday in Switzerland, and another specified Geneva. Trump also said the strait would officially reopen on Friday upon signing.

Pakistan was cited as a mediator during the negotiations, with one update stating that the two countries would electronically sign the agreement later that day. Separately, Gharibabadi said discussions for a final, enduring deal would begin within 60 days, according to Reuters.

Stock futures jump across major indices

Equity futures moved higher shortly after the weekend peace agreement was confirmed. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were up about 1% in one update, while riskier segments such as the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap Russell 2000 were described as posting even larger gains.

Other snapshots showed similar momentum: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by about 267 points (0.52%) in one report, while another said Dow futures were up more than 300 points (around 0.5%). S&P 500 futures were cited up 0.79% to 0.8%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.26%, with Nasdaq-100 futures referenced up about 1.2%.

Oil prices fall as supply fears ease

Crude prices dropped sharply as the deal reduced immediate concerns about prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell about 4% to around $13.78 per barrel, described as the lowest level since March. Another print showed Brent down 3.95% at $13.88, and another showed Brent at $14.35 (down 3.4%).

WTI, the US benchmark, also declined steeply. One report cited WTI down 4.68% at $10.91, while another said US oil futures fell 3.8% to $11.65, and another said WTI fell more than 5% to nearly $10 a barrel. Across reports, the common message was consistent: energy markets quickly priced in a reduced risk premium.

Strait of Hormuz: why the route matters to traders

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime route in the Middle East and has been central to market pricing since the conflict began in late February. Restrictions and uncertainty around access have supported oil prices and increased sensitivity to headlines. The prospect of reopening, paired with references to removing a naval blockade, was treated as a direct relief to the energy-supply disruption narrative that had roiled markets.

Even with the agreement, operational details still matter. Trump’s comment that extra time is needed to clear mines indicates that reopening is not only a political decision but also a logistics and security task, which can influence near-term shipping expectations.

Broader asset moves: Asia, Treasuries, dollar, and Bitcoin

Beyond US futures and crude, other asset classes reacted in a classic risk-on pattern. A gauge of Asian shares jumped 2.8% in early trading. Stocks and Treasuries were described as rallying, while oil fell to a three-month low.

Currency and crypto markets also moved. The US dollar declined against its major peers in one update, while Bitcoin climbed more than 2%. These moves aligned with easing geopolitical stress and a market shift toward higher-risk assets.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact and why the shift matters

The price action reflected a re-pricing of geopolitical risk rather than a change driven by company earnings or macroeconomic data. Falling oil prices can reduce immediate inflation pressure in market narratives, while rising equity futures typically signal improved risk appetite. The combination of higher stock futures and lower crude highlighted how central the Strait of Hormuz had become to global risk sentiment during the conflict.

At the same time, the market is reacting to headline clarity and a scheduled signing, not the full operational reopening of the strait. Comments about mine-clearing and the timing of formalization later in the week show that implementation steps remain part of the near-term focus.

What to watch next

The next clear milestone is Friday’s expected signing in Switzerland, cited as Geneva in some reports. Markets will also track confirmation of when the Strait of Hormuz becomes fully accessible again, including any updates tied to clearing mines. Separately, investors will watch for progress on the longer track referenced by Iran’s deputy foreign minister, who said talks for a final enduring deal would start within 60 days.

Conclusion

US and Iran confirmation of a peace agreement pushed stock futures higher and pulled oil prices down to levels described as the lowest since March. The planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the market reaction, with a formal signing expected on Friday in Switzerland. Attention now shifts to the signing, operational steps for reopening, and the follow-on negotiations timeline outlined by Iranian officials.