US stock futures rise as Iran tensions ease, Oracle slides

Futures rebound after a sharp prior-day drop

US stock futures climbed on Thursday after a steep selloff in the previous session, as investors appeared to downplay the immediate market impact of the latest escalation between the US and Iran. Early moves pointed to a rebound led by technology-heavy contracts, following a session in which risk appetite faded quickly. The tone improved even as headlines continued to track fresh military actions and their implications for energy markets and inflation.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose by more than 1% in early trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up around 0.8% and roughly 0.7% to 0.8%, respectively. The gains came after Wednesday’s broad decline left major indexes sharply lower and investors looking for signs that the conflict would not trigger an extended disruption.

What drove Wednesday’s selloff

On Wednesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% and the S&P 500 slid 1.6%. The declines were linked to rising geopolitical stress around the US-Iran conflict, alongside a fresh inflation read that investors viewed as reflecting war-related pressure on prices.

The risk-off mood was visible in the rotation out of parts of the technology complex and in the heightened focus on oil, a key channel through which Middle East tensions can feed into headline inflation. Market participants also prepared for additional macro catalysts, including an inflation report expected to push the headline rate above 4%.

US-Iran strikes and shifting investor expectations

Thursday’s bounce in futures followed news of further US military action against Iran, with markets weighing whether the situation was moving toward containment. US Central Command called an end to “additional self-defense” strikes about four hours after launching attacks on multiple targets in Iran, according to the information cited in the market updates.

Traders framed the move as potentially reducing the risk of immediate escalation. Some positioning also reflected hopes that talks on a peace deal, along with steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, could get back on track. At the same time, the news flow remained volatile, and earlier reports highlighted fears that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed indefinitely, a scenario that had pushed oil prices higher.

Oil market: calm in one window, volatile in another

Oil prices were mixed across the updates, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted during the conflict. In one trading window, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.8% to $19 a barrel, while Brent crude declined 1% to about $12.20 a barrel. Those moves reflected a calmer immediate reaction to a second consecutive round of US “self-defense” strikes.

But oil also saw sharp spikes around fresh attacks. Brent futures rose as much as 3.4% to above $16 per barrel at one point, while US benchmark WTI jumped as much as 3.8% to above $13 per barrel. The price action highlighted the market’s sensitivity to headlines about supply routes and the broader regional outlook.

Oracle drops despite an earnings beat

In corporate news, Oracle (ORCL) stood out on the downside. The company reported earnings that exceeded expectations, but its stock fell as investors focused on cloud sales that were described as underwhelming.

Oracle shares dropped about 8% in premarket trading after the company reported capital expenditures about $1 billion higher than anticipated. The reaction suggested that investors were reassessing the pace and cost of Oracle’s data-center spending, particularly at a time when markets are scrutinising cash outlays tied to artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure.

AI-linked stocks diverge as positioning shifts

While Oracle fell, other stocks linked to artificial intelligence posted gains in the same window, according to the market summary. The broader backdrop, however, included signs of a shift away from the most crowded AI trades, with commentary pointing to investor unease around large IPOs referenced as AI (AI.P) and Anthropic (ANTH.PVT).

The uneven performance within tech illustrates that “AI” is no longer trading as a single theme. Investors have started separating companies facing near-term spending pressure from those seen as beneficiaries of demand without the same scale of immediate capital intensity.

Politics and policy signals add to uncertainty

Political developments also entered the market narrative. President Trump posted on social media that Iran had “taken too long” to negotiate and that they would “have to pay the price,” according to the updates.

Separately, the House of Representatives voted to terminate the military engagement, described as a rebuke of the president. The combination of military headlines and political pushback added another layer of uncertainty for investors trying to assess the duration and intensity of the conflict.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: what investors are watching now

The immediate market impact has been concentrated in two places: oil-linked inflation expectations and the valuation pressure on tech companies funding major infrastructure builds. The prior-day equity drop, alongside oil spikes above $13 WTI and above $16 Brent in one window, shows how quickly the inflation narrative can shift when energy prices jump.

For equities, the rebound in futures suggests investors are still willing to re-enter risk after sharp declines, particularly if conflict developments appear contained. But the mixed messaging across oil prices and the renewed airstrikes indicates that volatility can return quickly, keeping both equity and commodity traders focused on headline risk.

Analysis: why Oracle’s capex surprise mattered

Oracle’s premarket fall despite an earnings beat highlights how markets are prioritising spending discipline and visibility on returns. With capital expenditures flagged as roughly $1 billion higher than expected, investors responded to the near-term cash impact and the possibility that elevated data-center spending could persist.

The move also fits within the broader market debate on AI monetisation. Companies can be rewarded for revenue momentum tied to AI demand, but they can also be penalised if the cost of building capacity rises faster than investors expected.

Conclusion

Thursday’s rise in US stock futures signaled an attempt to stabilise after Wednesday’s sharp drop, with investors weighing the latest US-Iran strikes, oil volatility, and an inflation backdrop expected to keep pressure on risk assets. Oracle’s 8% premarket slide added a company-specific reminder that spending surprises can outweigh headline earnings beats. The next leg for markets is likely to be driven by further developments in the conflict, upcoming inflation data, and how companies frame the cost of scaling cloud and AI infrastructure.