Vedanta Q4 Results 2026: Profit Seen Up 135% YoY

What is driving attention on April 29

Vedanta Ltd is scheduled to announce its Q4FY26 results on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, and expectations are elevated after the company flagged record production in its quarterly business update. The earnings are also the last set of results for Vedanta as a consolidated listed entity before its restructuring. With the demerger record date fixed for May 1, the market is tracking both operating performance and clarity on the separation timeline. Analysts broadly expect profitability to improve on the back of firm metal prices, especially in aluminium, zinc, and silver. At the same time, commentary on costs remains important, as some estimates flag potential pressure from supply constraints. The stock has been active into the event, reflecting both commodity-led momentum and the approaching corporate action.

Q4 production update: record output across businesses

Vedanta’s Q4 operational update pointed to strong volumes across key segments. Aluminium production for the quarter stood at 613 kilotonnes, up 2% year-on-year, which the company attributed mainly to operational efficiencies. Alumina production was the highest ever on both a quarterly and yearly basis at 882 kilotonnes, up 104% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. Zinc India reported its best-ever mined metal production at 315 kilotonnes, up 2% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, supported by higher ore production and improved grades. Saleable silver production was reported at 176 metric tonnes, up 11% quarter-on-quarter, in line with lead production.

Street view on revenue and profit: wide range, same direction

Brokerage and consensus estimates indicate a strong year-on-year jump in profit, though the revenue range varies by source. Some experts expect consolidated revenue to rise 20% to 24% year-on-year to about ₹48,750-₹49,940 crore, while net profit is estimated to jump 128% to 135% year-on-year to about ₹7,950-₹8,190 crore. For context, Vedanta reported revenue of ₹40,455 crore in Q4FY25 and net profit of ₹3,483 crore in that quarter.

Kotak Institutional Equities has pencilled in revenue of ₹51,119 crore, up 26.4% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter. Kotak’s EBITDA estimate is ₹18,260.4 crore, up 59.3% year-on-year, with EBITDA margins seen at 35.7%, higher by 481 basis points sequentially. Kotak’s adjusted net profit estimate is ₹7,934.6 crore, up 127.8% year-on-year.

Systematix Institutional Equities estimates revenue of ₹47,810 crore, up 18% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with EBITDA of ₹17,750 crore and margin of 37.1% (up 407 basis points quarter-on-quarter). Systematix’s net profit estimate is ₹6,130 crore, up 132% year-on-year. Nuvama Institutional Equities estimates revenue of ₹48,624.6 crore, EBITDA of ₹18,219.5 crore, and adjusted net profit of ₹8,108.9 crore.

Commodity prices, costs, and what the market will listen for

The central operating driver highlighted across estimates is favourable metal pricing, particularly for aluminium, zinc, and silver. Some notes also point to easing alumina costs as a supportive factor, though hedging is cited as a partial offset in certain segments. However, there is also a cost watch. One set of expectations flags that production costs could rise during the quarter due to supply constraints. As a result, management commentary on input availability, power costs, and the extent of benefit from metal price moves could shape the market’s reaction as much as the headline profit number.

Demerger: record date, ex-date, and investor eligibility

The results come just ahead of Vedanta’s planned restructuring into multiple listed entities. Vedanta has fixed May 1, 2026 as the record date for the demerger, and April 30 will be treated as the ex-date, as markets will be closed on May 1 for Maharashtra Day. April 29 is the last day for investors to buy Vedanta shares if they want to be eligible to receive shares in the demerged entities, given India’s T+1 settlement cycle. Investors buying on or after April 30 will not be eligible for the demerger benefits described in the scheme.

Under the exchange filing, eligible shareholders will receive one share each of Vedanta Aluminium Metal (VAML), Talwandi Sabo Power (TSPL), Malco Energy (also referred to as MEL in some references), and Vedanta Iron and Steel (VISL) for every one Vedanta share held. Vedanta’s demerger plan was approved by the NCLT in December 2025. The company will hold a special price discovery session on April 30 from 9:15 am to 9:45 am, after which normal trading will begin at 10 am.

When will the new entities list

While the record date sets eligibility, listing timelines can extend well beyond it. The listing of the demerged entities is expected to happen later, and timelines may vary from a few weeks to several months depending on regulatory clearances and operational requirements. Each of the demerged companies will have to complete separate approval processes before listing. Separately, Vedanta expects to complete its demerger by the end of September 2026, a timeline attributed to CFO Ajay Goel in the provided information.

Stock and derivatives cues into the event

Ahead of the Q4 result announcement, Vedanta shares closed 0.4% lower at ₹739. The stock opened at ₹749.85 on Wednesday, up 1.45% for the day, with total market capitalisation reported at ₹2.93 lakh crore. Vedanta has gained over 22% so far in 2026 amid a rise in precious and base metal prices in global markets. The stock hit a 52-week high of ₹794.90 on April 21, 2026.

Derivatives positioning is also in focus. The at-the-money strike for Vedanta’s 26 May expiry was 740, with a combined option premium of ₹16, implying that the market was pricing a move of about ±2.2% from the April 29 closing price.

Technical setup described by market watchers

Technical commentary provided indicates the stock is in a short-term consolidation phase after a sharp upmove. Price was described as pulling back from the ₹795 zone and finding support near the 20-day EMA. The broader structure was characterised as constructive, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting the primary trend remains intact despite profit booking.

Key numbers at a glance

Broker ratings and target prices cited

Brokerage views referenced remain mixed but skew positive. Systematix Institutional Equities has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of ₹898. Kotak Institutional Equities also has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of ₹890. ICICIDirect Research has a ‘hold’ rating with a target price of ₹820. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a ‘neutral’ rating with a target price of ₹750.

Why this result matters for shareholders

This earnings release sits at the intersection of two market drivers: commodity-linked profitability and a major corporate restructuring. If Vedanta delivers the profit improvement suggested by estimates, it would reinforce the operating leverage investors expect during strong metal price cycles. At the same time, the demerger mechanics make trading dates and eligibility crucial, because the corporate action creates additional listed exposures beyond the current consolidated company. With the ex-date on April 30 and record date on May 1, investor positioning around settlement timelines is likely to remain a key near-term factor.

What to track next

The immediate next steps are the Q4FY26 results and any accompanying management commentary, followed by the April 30 special price discovery session and the May 1 record date. Beyond that, investors will watch for regulatory clearances and the separate listing processes for the demerged entities, as timelines can differ by business. Vedanta has indicated an end-September 2026 target for completing the demerger, making subsequent filings and approvals the next checkpoints.