Vedanta Q4FY26 preview: revenue seen near Rs 57,000 cr

Results day doubles as a key demerger deadline

Vedanta Ltd is set to announce results for the quarter and financial year ended March 31, 2026, with April 29 also flagged as the last day to buy the stock for demerger eligibility. The upcoming print is expected to be the company’s final set of earnings as a consolidated entity before its restructuring takes effect. That combination has kept the stock in focus through the week. Street expectations point to stronger operating performance, supported by firm prices for aluminium, zinc and silver, alongside easing alumina costs. Profit is expected to remain broadly steady around the Rs 8,000 crore mark, based on estimates cited in the reports.

Vedanta share price snapshot ahead of earnings

On Wednesday, Vedanta shares opened at Rs 749.85, up 1.45% for the day. The company’s total market capitalisation was cited at Rs 2.93 lakh crore. The stock has gained nearly 14% over the last month and nearly 45% over the last six months. Vedanta hit a 52-week high of Rs 794.90 on April 21, 2026. Another data point in the coverage noted the stock had surged nearly 30% from a low of Rs 615 touched on March 23, 2026 to this week’s high.

Bloomberg consensus: revenue and Ebitda expected to rise QoQ

A Bloomberg estimate referenced in the coverage pegged Q4 revenue at Rs 57,029 crore versus Rs 46,650 crore in the prior quarter, implying a 22% sequential rise. Ebitda is expected at Rs 18,144 crore compared with Rs 15,170 crore QoQ, up 20%. The margin was pegged at 32% versus 32% QoQ. Profit after tax (PAT) was expected at Rs 8,066 crore versus Rs 7,970 crore QoQ, broadly flat.

What broker models suggest for Q4FY26

Brokerages cited in the preview offered a range of forecasts, with most expecting strong year-on-year growth in operating profit. Kotak Institutional Equities pencilled revenue at Rs 51,119 crore, up 26.4% YoY and 9.6% QoQ, with Ebitda estimated at Rs 18,260.4 crore. Kotak’s Ebitda margin estimate stood at 35.7%, with margin expansion of 481 bps sequentially, and adjusted net profit at Rs 7,934.6 crore, up 127.8% YoY but marginally down QoQ. Systematix Institutional Equities estimated revenue at Rs 47,810 crore, up 18% YoY and 4% QoQ, with Ebitda at Rs 17,750 crore and margin at 37.1%, up 407 bps QoQ. Nuvama Institutional Equities projected revenue at Rs 48,624.6 crore, Ebitda at Rs 18,219.5 crore, and adjusted net profit at Rs 8,108.9 crore.

Segment drivers highlighted by analysts

Kotak said aluminium Ebitda could increase 25% QoQ due to higher aluminium and lower alumina prices, partly offset by hedged quantities. It added that the oil and gas division could see stable Ebitda, while Zinc India Ebitda was expected to rise 23% QoQ due to higher zinc and silver prices, again partially offset by hedges. Nuvama also flagged higher zinc and aluminium prices as the lead driver for consolidated Ebitda. It expected aluminium segment Ebitda to rise 21% QoQ, supported by higher blended aluminium prices but partly offset by higher power costs. Nuvama projected Zinc India’s Ebitda to rise 21% QoQ on higher prices and volume, while Zinc International’s Ebitda was expected to decline 26% QoQ due to lower volume.

Volumes and key monitorables

Systematix said sales volume was seen flat at 613 kt for the quarter. It attributed expected growth to commodity prices, volumes and lower raw material costs, and added that the demerger timeline and reasons for delay were key monitorables. Another factor cited in the Bloomberg-based note was favourable LME prices supporting earnings in the quarter, with average LME zinc and aluminium prices rising 2% and 13% QoQ, respectively.

Demerger: record date, ex-date, and who qualifies

Vedanta has fixed May 1, 2026 as the record date to determine shareholder eligibility for its demerger under the scheme of arrangement. Since stock markets will remain closed on May 1 for Maharashtra Day, April 30 will be treated as the ex-date for the demerger. Under India’s T+1 settlement cycle, shares need to be bought at least one trading day before the ex-date. That makes April 29 the last day to buy Vedanta shares for investors who want to be eligible for the demerger benefits, while investors buying on or after April 30 will not be eligible.

The company said in an exchange filing dated April 20 that, in consultation with VAML, TSPL, MEL and VISL, the board fixed May 1, 2026 as the record date for determining eligible shareholders. Eligible shareholders as on the record date are set to receive one share each in Vedanta Aluminium Metal, Talwandi Sabo Power, Malco Energy and Vedanta Iron and Steel for every one Vedanta share held. Vedanta will also hold a special price discovery session on April 30 from 9:15 am to 9:45 am, after which normal trading will begin at 10 am. The demerger plan was approved by the NCLT in December 2025.

Key numbers at a glance

Broker target prices and ratings in circulation

Systematix Institutional Equities has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 898. Kotak Institutional Equities has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 890 in one estimate, while another note cited Kotak with a target price of Rs 915. ICICIDirect Research has a ‘hold’ rating with a target price of Rs 820. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a ‘neutral’ rating with a target price of Rs 750. Separately, BofA Securities was cited as upgrading the stock to “Buy” from “Neutral” and raising its target price to Rs 840 from Rs 480.

Why this quarter matters for investors

This Q4 print is being watched not only for earnings momentum but also for what it represents in the corporate action calendar. The demerger process creates a clear cut-off for eligibility, making settlement timelines important for retail and institutional investors alike. On the operational side, analysts have linked expected profitability to commodity pricing, hedging impact, and cost variables such as alumina and power. Any commentary around demerger execution, timeline and regulatory steps will likely be parsed alongside the reported numbers.

Closing note

Vedanta’s Q4FY26 results will land amid elevated attention due to the demerger cut-off and the scheduled ex-date mechanics. With May 1 fixed as the record date and April 30 as the ex-date, the next immediate milestones include the April 30 price discovery session and the company’s earnings announcement.