Waaree Energies: 2026 Target Cuts on US Tariff Case

Why Waaree Energies is back in focus

Waaree Energies has come under sharper scrutiny after multiple brokerage updates and a US trade-related development triggered fresh volatility in the stock. The key trigger was a finding by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) related to alleged tariff evasion on solar cell imports. Against that backdrop, at least one domestic brokerage cut its target price but maintained its rating, while others stayed positive on longer-term growth.

At the same time, the broader Street remains divided. Some analyst models still imply meaningful upside versus recent trading levels, while cautious notes highlight the company’s exposure to US trade actions and the concentration of orders linked to the US market.

The US CBP finding and the tariff-evasion allegation

Shares fell about 5% in one trading session after US CBP found that Waaree Energies evaded tariffs placed on solar cells from Vietnam and Malaysia between 2021 and 2026. One report cited US CBP’s view that Waaree had a “four-year history of reporting the wrong country of origin,” a point that brokerages flagged as carrying reputational weight.

This development matters because the US is a major market for Waaree. Separately, it was stated that in FY24, 57% of Waaree’s revenue came from the US. The combination of a regulatory finding and a high US contribution to revenue means trade actions can quickly become material to sentiment and, potentially, business mix.

JM Financial cuts target, keeps ‘Add’ rating

JM Financial reduced its 12-month target price for Waaree Energies to ₹3,185 from ₹3,509, citing the US-side allegation on tariff evasion. The brokerage maintained an ‘Add’ rating despite the cut.

Using a cited prevailing price of ₹2,954, the revised target implied potential upside of about ₹231, or 7.8%. Another reference in the provided data also mentioned JM Financial cutting the target price to ₹3,185 but cited a different earlier target of ₹3,009.65. Across both references, the consistent point was that JM Financial stayed constructive on rating but marked down valuation expectations after the US CBP development.

The same note flagged that reputational issues could impact a significant part of 65% to 70% of Waaree’s total order book, which was cited at ₹53,000 crore.

Q4FY26 margin miss adds to volatility

In a separate move, Waaree Energies shares fell 10.9% after a Q4FY26 margin miss, with the stock declining over 10% on the BSE following a sharper-than-expected contraction in margins for the January to March quarter of FY26. The stock dropped 10.6% to settle at ₹3,130, after recovering from an intraday fall of 11.5%.

Despite the near-term earnings miss, MOFSL retained a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of ₹3,503. That contrast highlights how the market can punish near-term margin disappointment even while some brokerages stay optimistic on the medium-term story.

Stock moves and key price levels cited

The stock has seen sharp day-to-day swings across the updates. One data point noted Waaree Energies fell 4.89% to ₹2,862.50 on BSE, with the move described as erasing its 2026 gains fully. In another trading update, the stock closed at ₹2,954, up 2.35%.

Over longer periods, the stock was described as roughly flat over six months and down about 6% over one year. The 52-week range was cited at ₹2,403 to ₹3,865. Market capitalisation was stated at ₹84.71 thousand crore.

Where analyst targets stand: wide range, mixed calls

The compiled target-price picture remains wide. One set of projections from 15 analysts put the average 12-month target at ₹3,577.07, with a high estimate of ₹4,400 and a low estimate of ₹2,395. That dataset also cited a potential upside of +22.38% based on the average target.

Separately, another consensus number in the provided data cited an average target price of ₹3,422.73 with a consensus view described as ‘Outperform’. Nuvama analysts were said to have maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of ₹3,867, implying 21.4% upside. Nomura and UBS were referenced with ‘Buy’ ratings and targets of ₹3,710 and ₹4,400, respectively.

On the cautious end, Jefferies was described as maintaining a neutral stance while reiterating an ‘underperform’ call in one update and cutting its target to ₹2,185 (from ₹2,295), implying 17% downside. Another Jefferies note cited a downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘hold’ with a target of ₹2,100 (from ₹2,030) after a roughly 25% rally.

Competition and capacity buildout in India

The operating backdrop is also shifting as capacity ramps up across the sector. The provided data stated that by FY27, India is expected to have 60 GW of module capacity and 47 GW of cell capacity. It also referenced aggressive moves by large players such as Adani Enterprises and Reliance Industries, potentially raising competitive pressure on market share and margins after FY28.

Global solar module surplus was also flagged as already visible, with the risk that India could see overcapacity by FY27. These factors can influence pricing, utilisation, and profitability across the domestic solar manufacturing chain.

Other risks flagged: US trade duties and Enel arbitration

Beyond the latest CBP development, US trade duties were highlighted as a key risk. The provided data noted that duties imposed in February 2026 led to a direct 15% fall in the share price.

Another overhang cited was an international arbitration case with Enel SpA. Enel’s claim, as described, is that Waaree stepped back from a January 2025 deal, cancelling a plan to acquire Enel’s Indian renewable business, and Enel is seeking damages. The note described potential unknown financial and reputational risks from this legal matter.

Key figures at a glance

Market impact and why the story matters

The immediate market impact has been driven by two forces: regulatory headlines tied to US trade actions and earnings-related margin pressure. Both events can change how investors price risk, especially when a large share of revenue is tied to a single geography and policy regime.

Brokerage reactions show the balance investors are being asked to weigh. On one side, bullish targets from firms such as UBS (₹4,400) and Nuvama (₹3,867) reflect confidence in demand and execution. On the other, Jefferies’ lower targets and underperform stance reflect concerns around export volatility, order-book concentration, and potential anti-dumping and countervailing duty implications.

What to watch next

Investors will likely track follow-through actions and clarifications linked to the US CBP finding, given the direct link to exports and order flows. Another monitorable area is how the company’s geographic revenue mix evolves, especially since exports were said to have declined sharply after US tariffs, altering the mix.

The Enel arbitration process is another key variable because it was flagged as a source of uncertain financial and reputational risk. And finally, the pace of capacity additions across India’s solar manufacturing ecosystem could shape margin outcomes as the sector moves toward the FY27 capacity levels cited.

Conclusion

Waaree Energies is navigating a period where regulatory headlines, margin volatility, and shifting industry capacity are intersecting in the stock price. Brokerages have responded with a mix of target cuts, maintained ratings, and wide-ranging valuation outcomes. The next set of developments around US trade actions, order-book visibility, and any updates on the Enel arbitration will remain central to how the market reassesses risk and valuation.