Zomato vs Swiggy: ICICI Targets and Q2FY26 Outlook

Why Zomato and Swiggy remain the sector’s key bellwethers

India’s food delivery and quick-commerce market continues to be defined by two leaders: Zomato and Swiggy. Channel checks and brokerage commentary in recent weeks have focused on how market share, discounting discipline, and profitability improvements are shaping investor sentiment. ICICI Securities has kept a ‘Buy’ rating on both companies, arguing that valuations look attractive on a one-year view and that the sector is moving away from heavy discounting.

Zomato is also described as leading on most headline financial metrics, including revenue, growth, profitability, and market share. Current estimates cited for market share place Zomato between 55% and 58%, while Swiggy is seen at 42% to 45%. In the market, both stocks have been part of a broader rally in India’s internet and consumer-tech names over the last few months.

Market share snapshot and what it signals

Market share expectations are central to how investors read the competitive balance. The estimates of Zomato at 55% to 58% and Swiggy at 42% to 45% suggest the market remains largely a two-player structure in food delivery. But competition is still rising, and ICICI Securities has flagged that this is limiting margin expansion in food delivery.

In quick commerce, leadership is increasingly discussed through the performance of platforms such as Eternal’s Blinkit and Swiggy’s Instamart. Another data point referenced in the same context is that Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto together control around 88% of India’s quick-commerce market share, based on data compiled by JM Financial.

ICICI Securities: target prices and the discounting shift

ICICI Securities reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on both stocks and published target prices that imply different upside profiles. The brokerage set a target price of ₹740 for Swiggy, implying a 127% upside, and ₹310 for Zomato, implying a 40% upside. The stated rationale includes a strategic shift away from heavy discounting as valuations normalise and discounting pressures ease.

The same framing also explains why investor positioning can change quickly in consumer internet stocks. When discounting intensity reduces, near-term unit economics can become easier to track. But ICICI’s notes also keep attention on margin constraints in food delivery due to competition.

Q2FY26 channel checks: e-commerce growth picks up

ICICI Securities said its channel checks suggest e-commerce growth in India accelerated to 15% to 20% year-on-year in Q2FY26. The drivers cited include income tax cuts, GST reductions, and strong festive demand. This matters because faster e-commerce volumes can directly support logistics and delivery ecosystems, along with quick-commerce platforms that depend on frequency and basket expansion.

Within its preferences, ICICI Securities named Delhivery and Swiggy as top picks in the broader space, reflecting the view that logistics could benefit if e-commerce volume growth stays strong.

Quick commerce projections: Blinkit vs Instamart

In quick commerce, ICICI Securities expects Eternal’s Blinkit to sustain a strong trajectory with 26% to 27% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth. It also expects Swiggy’s Instamart to accelerate sequentially with 24% QoQ growth, alongside improving profitability.

These are growth expectations, not guarantees, but they provide a benchmark for how the market might judge quarterly execution. Importantly, the quick-commerce push is still being evaluated against profitability progress, because high growth has historically come with high operating costs.

Eternal (Zomato parent): Q2FY26 numbers in focus

ICICI Securities projected Zomato’s gross order value (GOV) to grow 6.2% QoQ and 18.0% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of ₹460 crore and an EBITDA margin of 4%. For Blinkit, the brokerage sees GOV rising 26.5% QoQ and 143.9% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA at -₹100 crore and an EBITDA margin of -0.7% (up 67 bps QoQ).

On an overall basis, ICICI expects Eternal’s adjusted revenue growth of 49.4% QoQ or 120.4% YoY, adjusted EBITDA of ₹230 crore, and consolidated profit after tax (PAT) of ₹21.10 crore.

Swiggy: food delivery steadier, Instamart still loss-making

For Swiggy, ICICI Securities sees food delivery GOV growth of 5.5% QoQ or 18.6% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of ₹210 crore and a margin of 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV is expected to grow 24.3% QoQ or 107.9% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of -₹890 crore, improving from -15.8% in Q1FY26.

Overall, the brokerage projected adjusted revenue growth of 7.1% QoQ or 46.8% YoY and adjusted EBITDA of ₹800 crore. Separately, another set of estimates referenced Swiggy’s Q4 FY25E adjusted EBITDA at -₹770 crore (converted from -₹7.7 billion), versus -₹490 crore in Q3 FY25 and -₹360 crore in Q4 FY24, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of -17.4% as a proportion of adjusted revenue.

Nykaa: Q2FY26 revenue and profitability expectations

ICICI Securities expects Nykaa’s beauty revenue to rise 6.8% QoQ and 23.8% YoY to ₹2,110 crore, and fashion revenue to grow 17.4% QoQ or 20.9% YoY to ₹200 crore. Consolidated revenue growth is pegged at 7.6% QoQ or 23.6% YoY.

On profitability, ICICI projected EBITDA at ₹150 crore (6.7% margin) and PAT at ₹39.80 crore. These numbers are being tracked closely because profitability trends across internet platforms have become a key driver of relative valuations.

Market performance: internet stocks outpace the broader index

Over the past three months, Nifty India Internet stocks outperformed the broader market, even as the Nifty dipped 1.4%. Among the best performers cited, Ixigo gained 81% (with 73% revenue growth and 26% profit growth), while CarTrade Tech rose 45% (with 22% revenue growth and 105% profit growth). Other notable performers included Zomato up 34% and Nykaa up 30%.

Swiggy was also cited as up 12% over three months, while some names lagged, including EaseMyTrip (-18%) and RattanIndia Enterprises (-23%). In another time window referenced, Swiggy shares rose 20% in June, while Eternal gained 11%, both outpacing the Nifty 100.

Key data points table

What investors are likely to watch next

The immediate focus remains on whether quick-commerce growth can stay strong while losses narrow, and whether food delivery can protect margins despite competitive intensity. ICICI’s commentary repeatedly highlights discounting discipline as a key swing factor for near-term profitability trends.

Upcoming quarterly prints will also be judged on how closely they match the GOV and adjusted EBITDA expectations outlined by brokerages. For Swiggy and Blinkit in particular, the market is likely to compare growth momentum with the pace of profitability improvement, since both platforms still carry sizeable cost structures.

Conclusion

The latest brokerage updates keep Zomato and Swiggy at the centre of the consumer internet narrative, with ICICI Securities maintaining ‘Buy’ ratings, updated targets, and detailed Q2FY26 expectations for GOV and profitability. With channel checks pointing to stronger e-commerce growth and quick-commerce scaling, the next results cycle should provide clearer evidence on whether improved discipline on discounting is translating into more stable margins.