Antelopus targets 5,000 BOEPD by FY29 after 2,500 FY27 plan

Antelopus Selan Energy Limited is targeting an exit rate of 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) by FY29, after forecasting a 2,500-BOEPD exit in FY27. Management cited October portfolio production of about 2,000 BOEPD, Bakrol output above 950 BOEPD and a seven-well Karjisan programme as the principal near-term drivers.

What is Antelopus's production target through FY29?

Antelopus is targeting exit production of about 2,500 BOEPD in FY27, 3,500 BOEPD in FY28 and 5,000 BOEPD in FY29. Management presented these as exit-rate goals rather than annual average production, and said the 5,000-BOEPD plan incorporates only subdued contributions from KG Onshore and the separate Cambay field opportunity.

Antelopus reported average output of around 511 barrels in FY23, 740 in FY24, 1,200 in FY25 and 1,355 in FY26. Its stated exit rates were around 982 BOEPD in FY24, 1,200 BOEPD in FY25 and 1,758 BOEPD in FY26, showing that output had risen ahead of the FY27 target period.

October portfolio output was about 2,000 BOEPD, according to the chief executive, while the chief financial officer cited approximately 1,950 BOEPD for the month. Both figures place October output above the FY26 exit rate of around 1,758 BOEPD, though below the 2,500-BOEPD FY27 exit objective.

How will Bakrol support Antelopus's FY27 target?

Bakrol is expected to provide a substantial base for Antelopus's FY27 production target after a 10-well drilling and fracking campaign was completed. Management said Bakrol averaged more than 950 BOEPD in October, after supply-chain constraints had delayed fracking, representing nearly half of the approximately 2,000-BOEPD portfolio rate cited for the month.

Management said one to two Bakrol wells a year may be required to offset field decline, with further wells adding incremental output. It described Bakrol and Karjisan as the backbone of its Cambay Basin operations and said Bakrol could provide net revenue and cash flow for the next three to four years.

Antelopus's capital spending has varied during its production build-out, moving from around Rs 51 crore in FY23 to Rs 160 crore in FY24, Rs 87 crore in FY25 and Rs 220 crore in FY26. Management expects around Rs 250 crore of capital expenditure in FY27, but did not provide a formal expenditure plan for FY28 or FY29.

Why is Karjisan central to Antelopus's 2,500-BOEPD plan?

Karjisan is central because Antelopus said the output from its planned seven new wells is included in the 2,500-BOEPD FY27 exit target. Two wells had been drilled by the October 26 call but were not yet producing, and management said it hoped to start production from one well within five to 10 days.

The company intends to complete the seven-well Karjisan campaign within FY27. Management said Karjisan production had declined during the reported quarter, while Bakrol took longer to complete and frack, leaving total production broadly flat or slightly lower sequentially. It expects the returning rig and the new Karjisan wells to increase output through the remainder of the year.

Karjisan has concessional cess and royalty rates because it remains in the primary term of its production-sharing contract, management said. It estimated that each Karjisan barrel has roughly twice the profit-and-loss impact of a Bakrol barrel, but did not disclose expected production per well or forecast incremental revenue from the campaign.

What do Antelopus's latest financial results show?

Antelopus reported Q2 FY27 revenue from operations of around Rs 121.7 crore and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of Rs 90 crore. EBITDA was almost three times the Q2 FY26 figure and equated to a margin of about 71%, although it included a one-off cash refund of Rs 6.5 crore in other income.

Excluding that refund, management said EBITDA was around Rs 83 crore and the margin was about 69%. Net profit was Rs 57.3 crore in Q2 FY27, compared with Rs 11.8 crore in Q2 FY26, while operating expense and handling costs fell to Rs 6.1 crore from Rs 7.5 crore in Q1 FY27.

For the first half, Antelopus reported average sales of about 1,700 BOEPD, revenue of around Rs 254.8 crore, EBITDA of around Rs 180 crore and net profit of around Rs 112 crore. Depreciation increased to Rs 13.2 crore in Q2 FY27 as new Bakrol wells entered production.

Management said 70% to 75% of its cost base is fixed, so higher Cambay Basin volumes could spread those costs over more barrels. As of September 30, Antelopus had shareholder equity of around Rs 780 crore, no borrowings and roughly Rs 100 crore in cash, bank balances and liquid investments.

What could add to Antelopus's production after FY29?

KG Onshore and the Cambay field could add production beyond the stated plan, but Antelopus has not incorporated major contributions from either into its 5,000-BOEPD target. The company has around nine KG fields, including seven newly acquired discoveries, and said only Mukkamala was producing at the time of the call.

Management said KG Onshore could have a resource base larger than Antelopus's existing offshore portfolio. It plans to formulate an exploitation strategy over the next year or so, initially considering early production from existing wells and then a one-rig drilling approach across the portfolio after further technical assessment.

KG is a high-pressure, high-temperature basin, and management estimated that KG wells could cost about $10 million or more, compared with roughly $1.5 million in Cambay. It said Antelopus would first analyse the assets and obtain a third-party reserve estimate before disclosing a KG resource estimate.

The separate Cambay field covers 160 square kilometres and is held through a 50% joint venture with Synergia. Antelopus plans to drill one or two wells there in late February or early March of FY27; management said the results should indicate whether the field is primarily an oil or gas opportunity and how it should be developed.

Conclusion

Antelopus's stated route to 5,000 BOEPD by FY29 relies principally on its established Cambay Basin operations. Bakrol was producing more than 950 BOEPD in October, while seven planned Karjisan wells are included in the 2,500-BOEPD FY27 exit objective; management then forecasts a further 1,000 BOEPD increase in FY28 and 1,500 BOEPD in FY29.

The next disclosed milestones are initial production from Karjisan's two drilled wells, completion of the seven-well campaign within FY27 and drilling of one or two Cambay field wells in late February or early March. Management also plans to provide a KG resource estimate after technical work and a third-party reserve assessment, while the funding mix for that higher-cost basin remains undecided.