Bajaj Auto Q4 FY26 preview: dividend and buyback watch

What investors are tracking on May 6

Bajaj Auto Ltd is set to announce its results for the quarter and financial year ended March 31, 2026 (Q4FY26 and FY26) on Wednesday, May 6. Alongside the earnings, the company’s board is scheduled to consider and approve an interim dividend for FY26. The board will also consider a buyback of the company’s equity shares. For shareholders, the day matters not only for the operating performance update but also for capital return decisions that can influence near-term sentiment.

In recent sessions, investors have increasingly focused on how cash-rich manufacturers deploy surplus funds. In Bajaj Auto’s case, the meeting agenda explicitly includes both dividend and buyback, putting capital allocation at the centre of attention. The company is also scheduled to host a conference call on May 6 at 7:15 PM IST to discuss the Q4FY26 financial results.

Board agenda: interim dividend and share buyback

The company has indicated that its board will consider an interim dividend for FY26. It will also take up a share buyback proposal, described in market coverage as the first buyback consideration in about two years. While the final decision and terms will only be known after the board meeting, the presence of both items on the agenda makes May 6 a key date for long-term shareholders and income-focused investors.

For context on payouts, Bajaj Auto had declared a dividend of ₹210 per share (2,100%) for FY25, as reported with its FY24-25 results. That historical payout sets a reference point for how the company has rewarded shareholders in the recent past, although FY26 decisions will depend on board approval.

Street expectations for Q4FY26: three sets of estimates

Brokerages have published differing expectations for Bajaj Auto’s Q4FY26 performance, reflecting variation in assumptions on volumes, mix, and margins. Estimates in circulation point to a strong year-on-year revenue rise, with EBITDA margins around the 20% level in some forecasts.

Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities has pencilled in revenue at ₹15,531.5 crore for the quarter, up 27.9% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter. It estimates EBITDA at ₹3,170.5 crore, up 29.4% year-on-year and flat sequentially, with EBITDA margin at 20.4%. Net profit is estimated at ₹2,541.1 crore, up 24% year-on-year but marginally lower quarter-on-quarter.

YES Securities expects revenue of ₹16,048.4 crore, up 32.1% year-on-year and 5.4% quarter-on-quarter. It sees EBITDA at ₹3,190 crore, reported as down 30% year-on-year and 89% quarter-on-quarter in its preview, and net profit at ₹2,626.6 crore, up 28.2% year-on-year and 3.1% quarter-on-quarter.

Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates estimates sales at ₹15,899.7 crore, up 30.9% year-on-year and 4.5% quarter-on-quarter. It sees EBITDA at ₹3,266.7 crore, up 33.3% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, with EBITDA margin at 20.5%. Net profit is estimated at ₹2,602.3 crore, up 27% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter.

Key estimates snapshot (Q4FY26)

Q3FY26 base: the most recent reported quarter

Ahead of the Q4 update, Bajaj Auto’s Q3FY26 numbers provide a reference for the company’s recent trajectory. The company reported a 23.1% year-on-year rise in consolidated total income to ₹16,640.49 crore in Q3FY26, compared with ₹13,516.41 crore in Q3FY25. Profit after tax (PAT) grew 25.2% year-on-year to ₹2,749.82 crore from ₹2,195.65 crore.

Separate market coverage also cited EBITDA of ₹3,160 crore for the December quarter of FY26, up 23% year-on-year from ₹2,581 crore in Q3 FY25. These figures have shaped expectations that profitability could remain resilient, even as investors look for clarity on product mix, export momentum, and cost trends.

FY24-25 results recap: what the latest annual report showed

Bajaj Auto’s consolidated financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2025 showed a strong topline expansion, while profit was impacted by specific provisions and losses. Annual revenue for FY25 was reported at ₹50,994.55 crore, up 13.6% year-on-year from ₹44,870.43 crore. PAT for FY25 was ₹7,324.73 crore, down 5% year-on-year from ₹7,708.24 crore.

For Q4 FY25 (as reported in that release), revenue from operations stood at ₹12,646.32 crore versus ₹11,554.95 crore in Q4 FY24. Total income was ₹13,038.55 crore versus ₹11,914.94 crore. EBITDA (as estimated in that report) was ₹2,749.98 crore.

Earnings day context: 60-plus companies also report on May 6

Bajaj Auto’s results land on a busy day in the earnings calendar. Over 60 companies are set to announce Q4FY26 results on May 6, according to market schedules. Key names mentioned for the day include Shree Cement, Godrej Consumer Products, Polycab India, and One 97 Communications (Paytm), among others.

A heavy results calendar can influence intraday liquidity and attention, especially for index constituents and high-volume names. For Bajaj Auto, the addition of dividend and buyback considerations could keep the stock in focus even amid a crowded news flow.

Conference call details: what to expect

Bajaj Auto has scheduled a conference call for analysts and institutional investors on May 6, 2026, at 7:15 PM IST. The call is slated to discuss the company’s Q4FY26 financial results. The key participants listed include Executive Director Rakesh Sharma and Chief Financial Officer Dinesh Thapar.

Such calls typically help investors parse quarterly drivers beyond headline numbers, including margin movement, segment performance, and management commentary on demand conditions. With capital return items also on the board agenda, commentary on cash position and payout approach will be closely monitored.

Stock check and immediate market cues

A market update cited Bajaj Auto shares at ₹10,046, down ₹86 (0.84%) as of May 5, 2026. While one-day moves do not explain the full picture, the data point captures positioning ahead of the results and the board’s capital allocation decisions.

The combination of earnings and potential shareholder returns can shape near-term trading behaviour. But the final impact will depend on the reported numbers, the dividend decision, and whether a buyback is approved and on what terms.

Why this event matters: earnings plus capital allocation

For a mature two-wheeler manufacturer, the earnings print answers the standard questions on growth, margins, and profitability. The added significance here is capital allocation: interim dividend and a buyback consideration on the same day. These actions can signal management’s stance on cash generation, reinvestment needs, and shareholder return priorities.

On the fundamentals side, the range of brokerage estimates highlights two areas investors will likely scrutinise. One is the sustainability of revenue growth levels implied by the year-on-year comparisons. The other is operating profitability, with margins around 20% in some estimates and conflicting EBITDA trend assumptions in others.

Conclusion

Bajaj Auto’s May 6 board meeting combines Q4FY26 and FY26 results with decisions on an interim dividend and a potential share buyback. Brokerages are modelling revenue in a range of about ₹15,531.5 crore to ₹16,048.4 crore for the quarter, with net profit estimates clustered around ₹2,541.1 crore to ₹2,626.6 crore. Investors will also look to the 7:15 PM IST conference call for management’s explanation of quarterly drivers and any detail shared on shareholder payout decisions after the board deliberations.