Bharti Airtel stock: Morgan Stanley lifts PT to ₹2,435

Why Bharti Airtel is back on brokerage radars

Bharti Airtel returned to focus after Morgan Stanley raised its price target and upgraded the stock, helping push the shares higher in early trade. The move comes at a time when Airtel is also being highlighted in multiple market recommendation lists, including daily stock calls from domestic brokerages. Separately, Bajaj Broking Research listed Bharti Airtel and Tata Power Company among its top stock recommendations dated March 6, 2026. Alongside this, other global brokerages have reiterated positive views on Airtel, keeping attention on the telecom sector’s earnings and tariff cycle.

Morgan Stanley upgrades Airtel and raises target price

Morgan Stanley raised its target price on Bharti Airtel by 20% to ₹2,435 from ₹2,035 earlier. It also shifted its stance to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal-weight’, as noted in reports citing the brokerage. Morgan Stanley said the stock should be able to maintain its current one-year forward valuation multiple, with strong EBITDA growth driving potential upside. The brokerage also pointed to a familiar pattern in Airtel’s trading history: the stock has historically performed well ahead of tariff hike events, followed by a consolidation phase.

Stock reaction: Airtel climbs in early trade

Following the Morgan Stanley note, Bharti Airtel shares rose nearly 2% in early trading and touched ₹2,103.50 per share, where it was cited as a top gainer on the Nifty 50 and the Sensex in morning trade. Another report referenced Airtel’s prior close at ₹2,069.70 on the NSE. The revised target price was described as implying nearly 18% upside from the previous close.

Tariff hike expectations shift investor focus to FY27

Morgan Stanley said it sees a tariff hike in Q1 FY27 and expects the stock to start reflecting this in the coming months. A separate market note also referred to a tariff hike expected in the September quarter, highlighting that the market may price in higher tariffs even before any hike occurs. In another Morgan Stanley-linked summary, a 16% to 20% tariff hike was described as expected in FY27. Across these references, the common thread is that tariff action is increasingly central to how analysts frame revenue per user growth and telecom earnings visibility.

ARPU and EBITDA: what Morgan Stanley expects

Morgan Stanley expects multiple levers to drive mid-single digit ARPU growth over the medium term. It said this should support double-digit growth in India business EBITDA. The brokerage also sees room for ARPUs to expand by mid-single digits even without further tariff support post 2026, based on its interpretation of organic drivers. It added that EBITDA in the core mobile wireless business could rise by high single digits to low double digits.

In another articulation of the same thesis, Morgan Stanley expects Airtel’s ARPU to rise to ₹370 to ₹390 by FY32, supported by better data monetisation, a shift towards postpaid, and value-added services such as international roaming. It also said Airtel’s non-mobile businesses could see EBITDA growing at a 20% CAGR, and that it expects 12% plus growth for the overall India business.

Capital intensity and return ratios in the monetisation phase

Morgan Stanley described India as being in a sweet spot in the capital investment cycle. It said capex is likely to be below peak FY24 levels in absolute terms, and as a percentage of revenues it could fall meaningfully compared with the previous cycle as the company moves into a monetisation phase. It also flagged the potential for premium valuation multiples to be sustained if return ratios improve.

On profitability quality, Morgan Stanley said it expects sustainable improvement in the return ratio profile to above 20%, and separately referenced core business return ratios reaching 20% by FY28. These return assumptions, along with the tariff narrative, are central to why the brokerage increased its valuation framework.

How Morgan Stanley explained the target hike

Morgan Stanley said it raised its scenario values by 14% to 21% and increased its price target by 20%. It attributed the change to a combination of factors: higher assumptions for core India business EBITDA (2% to 4% increase), implied one-year forward multiple changes driving 12% to 13% increases, and a 3% increase from the value of subsidiaries and associates. The firm’s commentary underscores that the revised target is not only about tariffs, but also about broader valuation and business mix considerations.

Other brokerages also stay constructive

Apart from Morgan Stanley, other global brokerages have reiterated positive views on Bharti Airtel with targets clustered around the ₹2,380 to ₹2,450 range. Citi reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹2,380. HSBC reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹2,400, while also mentioning Reliance Industries in the same update. These targets add context to how the Street is benchmarking Airtel’s earnings trajectory and potential tariff-led operating leverage.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact and what investors are watching

The immediate market impact was a positive price reaction and higher attention to Airtel’s tariff and ARPU pathway. For investors, the Morgan Stanley call links three moving parts: the likelihood of tariff hikes in FY27, sustained ARPU improvement even beyond the tariff cycle, and operating leverage translating into stronger EBITDA growth. The brokerage also connected the thesis to capital intensity, arguing that capex could be below peak FY24 levels and revenue monetisation could strengthen return ratios.

Conclusion

Bharti Airtel’s rally after the Morgan Stanley upgrade reflects renewed focus on the sector’s repair phase, the next tariff window in FY27, and the company’s ARPU-led growth levers. With multiple brokerages maintaining ‘Buy’ or ‘Overweight’ views and targets around ₹2,380 to ₹2,435, the market’s next cues are likely to come from clarity on tariff timing and evidence of sustained ARPU and EBITDA momentum.