BHEL share price up 42% in April: targets, Q4 preview

Momentum returns to BHEL as brokerages stay constructive

State-run capital goods major Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) remained in focus as brokerage firms reiterated largely positive views on the stock, pointing to a strong order book and improving financial trajectory. JM Financial raised its upside target price for BHEL by 14 percent, even after a sharp rise in the stock during April. The brokerage’s updated stance comes as investors weigh the pace of execution in legacy projects and the scope for margin improvement. The attention is also building ahead of BHEL’s upcoming quarterly results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026, even as the company has not yet announced a results date through exchange filings.

Where the stock closed and what changed in April

Shares of BHEL settled at Rs 347.45 on April 27 (Monday). The stock had hit a 52-week high at Rs 341 on April 23 (Thursday), as cited in the provided information. BHEL’s total market capitalisation stood above Rs 1.21 lakh crore on April 27. The stock has gained nearly 42 percent from its close of Rs 245.50 on March 30, highlighting how quickly the rally unfolded over the month.

Why JM Financial increased its target price

JM Financial said BHEL’s order book “has not yet peaked” given an 18/14 GW pipeline and improving non-thermal visibility. It also highlighted the commissioning of 8.9/10 GW of legacy projects as a driver of better execution and margins. In valuation terms, JM noted that the stock is trading at 27 times FY28E EPS (consensus), alongside a Q4 FY26E EBITDA margin of 11 percent (consensus).

JM also listed specific levers it believes can support profitability over the next two to three years. These include permission to import from China, changes in the product mix in non-thermal orders, indigenisation of supercritical, and operating leverage. It added that easing of working capital stress is likely, considering large customer advances and the commissioning of legacy projects.

Margin and return assumptions underpinning the revised call

JM Financial said it expects a “beat on margins”, which could justify an earnings upgrade and re-rating. The brokerage’s base case assumes revenues compound at 20 percent over FY25-28E while EBITDA margin expands to 11.2 percent and RoE improves to at least 15 percent by FY28E. On that basis, it values the stock at a P/E of 32 times and revised its target price to Rs 393, maintaining a ‘buy’ rating.

Q4 FY26 results date and dividend visibility

As per recent exchange filings referenced in the provided content, BHEL has not disclosed the date and time for announcing its results for the quarter and financial year ending March 31, 2026. It is also not clear whether the company will announce any dividend for shareholders for the period.

Q4 FY26 preview: Kotak’s estimates

Kotak Institutional Equities expects BHEL’s revenue at Rs 10,520.9 crore, up 17 percent YoY and 24.2 percent QoQ. EBITDA is seen at Rs 914.7 crore, up 10 percent YoY and 67.7 percent QoQ, with margins at 8.7 percent, up 225 bps sequentially. Net profit is estimated at Rs 627.9 crore, up 24.6 percent YoY and 64.2 percent QoQ.

Kotak said it sees a 17 percent YoY improvement in revenues driven by Power and Industrial segments, while factoring a low single-digit impact on overall execution. It also expects a 56 bps YoY contraction in EBITDA margins despite 160 bps YoY improvement in gross margins over a weak base, driven by its expectation of steady increases in employee costs YoY for the second consecutive quarter.

Q4 FY26 preview: PL Capital’s estimates and order win highlight

PL Capital expects revenue at Rs 11,358.5 crore, up 26.3 percent YoY and 34.1 percent QoQ. EBITDA is pencilled at Rs 1,185.2 crore, up 59.8 percent YoY and 120 percent QoQ. Adjusted net profit is estimated at Rs 797.2 crore, up 58.2 percent YoY and 108.4 percent QoQ.

PL Capital expects BHEL to report revenue growth driven by strong execution in the Power segment, while EBITDA margin is likely to expand by 120 bps YoY led by execution ramp-up. It also noted that during the quarter, BHEL received a Rs 13,500 crore main plant package order for 3×800 MW Telangana Stage-II STPP, along with some other Industry segment orders.

InCred’s view on FY26 update and longer visibility

InCred Capital said BHEL’s FY26 business update missed consensus revenues by about 4 percent, implying 21 percent YoY growth for Q4 FY26 revenue of Rs 10,880 crore. It added that this may not account for other operating income and therefore expects Q4 to be largely in line versus the street’s expectations.

InCred also noted that the street has cut its FY26F EPS by 45 percent versus the start of the year. It argued that order intake growth rate could slow on a high base plus limited thermal visibility as focus increases towards renewables including nuclear. It said a backlog of Rs 2.4 lakh crore lends visibility for the next 5 to 6 years.

Broker targets diverge sharply across the Street

Alongside JM Financial’s revised target of Rs 393, other brokerages cited in the provided content have varied views. Antique Stock Broking has a ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 345, while ICICIDirect has a ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs 343. PL Capital has a ‘hold’ with a target of Rs 245. Kotak Institutional Equities has a ‘sell’ rating with a target price of Rs 115.

Key numbers at a glance

What investors will watch next

Near-term focus remains on the timing of the Q4 FY26 results announcement, since BHEL has not yet disclosed the schedule in exchange filings cited in the text. The market will also track whether the company announces any dividend alongside the results. On operating performance, investors are likely to compare reported revenue, EBITDA, margins, and profit against the range of expectations laid out by Kotak Institutional Equities and PL Capital. Order execution progress in Power and Industrial segments, and any updated commentary on working capital and customer advances, are also central to the broker thesis outlined by JM Financial.

Conclusion

BHEL’s April rally has been accompanied by higher target prices from some brokerages, led by JM Financial’s revised Rs 393 valuation, supported by margin and return assumptions through FY28E. At the same time, estimates for Q4 FY26 financials vary across brokerages, and the company has not yet disclosed its result date or dividend stance for the year ended March 31, 2026. The next concrete trigger will be BHEL’s official results announcement and any accompanying operational commentary on execution, margins, and order book visibility.