BNP Paribas trims targets, sees 39-48% upside in 2026

What changed in BNP Paribas’ view

BNP Paribas said it continues to see “strong upsides” in India’s listed online food delivery and quick commerce platforms, even after lowering target multiples and trimming earnings estimates. The brokerage attributed the cuts to a mix of peer valuation benchmarking and “increased macro risk.” Despite the more conservative assumptions, BNP Paribas maintained that the risk-reward remains attractive for both Eternal Ltd and Swiggy Ltd. It also stated a preference for Eternal.

Revised targets: Eternal and Swiggy

BNP Paribas reduced Eternal’s target price to ₹380 from ₹420 earlier. Based on a Friday closing price of ₹257.35, the revised target implies a 48% upside. For Swiggy, BNP Paribas cut the target to ₹400 from ₹490 earlier. Against Swiggy’s prevailing price of ₹287.30, the target indicates 39% upside.

The note’s message is that valuation caution has increased, but the brokerage still expects meaningful appreciation potential if operational execution stays on track.

Latest prices cited across sources

The article references multiple price points, reflecting different timestamps and datasets. It lists Eternal’s latest trading price as ₹256.75 as of 24 Apr 15:30. It also states that as of April 26, 2026, Eternal was at ₹256.75, while Swiggy was at ₹287.35. Separately, a valuation comparison table shows Swiggy at ₹295.8 and Eternal at ₹260.09.

These differences matter when readers interpret “upside,” because brokerage targets are typically compared with a specific closing or prevailing price.

Key valuation and fundamentals mentioned

Some high-level financial indicators included in the data snapshot show how the market has been pricing the two stocks. Eternal’s P/E ratio is shown as falling from 455.9 in March 2024 to 347.4 in March 2025, described as a -12.71% CAGR over two years. The article lists Swiggy’s P/E ratio as 0 in both March 2021 and March 2025.

On market capitalisation, Eternal’s market cap is shown rising from ₹64,786 crore in March 2022 to ₹1,94,454 crore in March 2025, a CAGR of 31.62% over four years. Swiggy’s market cap is listed as ₹75,431 crore in March 2025.

For profitability, the snapshot states Swiggy’s net profit moved from ₹-611 crore to ₹-1,065 crore over seven quarters, described as a CAGR of 37.37%.

One-year stock performance comparison

The article also compares the last 12 months of returns for the two counters. It says Swiggy underperformed Eternal, delivering -13% versus Eternal’s +10% growth over the same period. This divergence is relevant because much of the current debate is around the pace of profitability improvement versus growth spending, especially in quick commerce.

What other analysts are watching in FY26

Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, said he expects both Swiggy and Eternal to report healthy GOV and NOV growth in Q4 FY26 across food delivery and quick commerce. He added that food delivery should continue to grow at 15-20%. He also said an increase in platform fees should partially offset the impact of trimmed menu offerings due to curtailed cooking gas supply at restaurants.

On quick commerce, Agrawal described the total addressable market as “humungous” and pointed to rapid dark store expansion as a key driver for incumbents. He also flagged a shift from marketplace to inventory-led models as a potential margin lever and said both companies should be able to adhere to their guided path to profitability in quick commerce. He added that after the correction, investors can add both names, with Eternal as the relatively preferred bet.

Valuation comparison data cited

A separate valuation comparison section lists Swiggy with an “Intrinsic Value” of 316.88 INR and “Undervaluation 7%,” alongside a price of ₹295.8. It lists Eternal with an “Intrinsic Value” of 214.52 INR and “Overvaluation 18%,” alongside a price of ₹260.09. The tables shown do not provide DCF values or multiples-based values for either stock.

Brokerages: targets, ratings, and the quick commerce lens

The article cites a wide range of brokerage views, reflecting how central quick commerce has become to the investment case. It notes UBS cut targets “this month” to ₹310 for Eternal and ₹390 for Swiggy while keeping ‘Buy’ on both, and it also includes a separate compilation table with different UBS targets (Eternal ₹375, Swiggy ₹510). It says JM Financial downgraded Swiggy to ‘Reduce’ with a target of ₹270, and raised concerns that Instamart faces a growth-versus-profitability trade-off.

It also mentions Goldman Sachs with a ‘Buy’ on Eternal and a ₹350 target, and BofA Global Research targets of ₹320 for Eternal and ₹360 for Swiggy.

Key operating metrics highlighted for Eternal and Swiggy

For Eternal, a section in the article notes a 90% Q-o-Q and 183% Y-o-Y jump in net revenue, attributed to full-value recognition of goods sold under an inventory-led model rather than only commissions. It also notes Blinkit’s 137% Y-o-Y increase in monthly order value in Q2 FY26, contribution margin improvement from 3.9% to 4.6%, and that inventory ownership accounts for about 80% of order value.

For Swiggy, the article notes a 50% QoQ reduction in cash burn in 2Q FY26, and management’s expectation that Instamart can hit breakeven by 1Q FY27. It also cites non-grocery categories at 26% of GOV and references a planned ₹100b fundraise.

Market impact: how targets and multiples shape sentiment

BNP Paribas’ downgrade in target multiples and reduction in earnings estimates signals a more cautious stance on sector valuation under higher macro risk. Yet the brokerage’s projected upside, 48% for Eternal and 39% for Swiggy, indicates it still sees room for rerating or earnings delivery to support higher prices. The broader sell-side picture in the article remains constructive, with many ‘Buy’ ratings, but the spread in targets shows investors are weighing different paths to profitability and the cost of scaling quick commerce.

Summary table: key numbers mentioned

Brokerage targets cited in the article

Conclusion

BNP Paribas’ latest stance combines caution on valuation multiples with continued confidence in upside potential for both Eternal and Swiggy. The targets were cut, but the brokerage still sees 39-48% upside and prefers Eternal. Across the street, the debate remains anchored on quick commerce execution, cost discipline, and the timing of profitability milestones such as Instamart’s breakeven guidance for 1Q FY27. Investors will likely track upcoming quarterly updates for GOV and NOV momentum, contribution margin trends, and any follow-through on the ₹100b fundraise referenced for Swiggy.