Eternal, Swiggy: BNP Paribas sees 39-48% upside

BNP Paribas trims assumptions, keeps bullish view

BNP Paribas has reiterated a positive stance on India’s online food delivery platforms, even as it reduced valuation assumptions and trimmed earnings estimates to reflect higher macro risk. In its latest note, the brokerage said it still sees meaningful upside in both Eternal Ltd and Swiggy Ltd. The upside call remains despite lower target multiples, which BNP Paribas said were adjusted to better reflect peer valuations. The brokerage also stated a preference for Eternal.

The note adds to a broader set of mixed but largely constructive broker views on the sector, where the core debate increasingly centres on quick commerce execution. For both companies, the quick commerce arms are widely tracked as the next key profit pool, with Eternal’s Blinkit and Swiggy’s Instamart central to the investment narrative.

Target prices cut: what BNP Paribas is now factoring in

BNP Paribas lowered its target prices for both stocks. For Eternal, it cut the target price to ₹380 from ₹420 earlier. Based on Friday’s closing price of ₹257.35, the new target implies a 48% potential upside.

For Swiggy, BNP Paribas reduced the target price to ₹400 from ₹490 earlier. The target implies a 39% upside over Swiggy’s prevailing price of ₹287.30, as cited in the note.

BNP Paribas targets and implied upside

Latest prices and recent performance snapshot

A separate price snapshot in the provided data lists Eternal’s latest trading price at ₹256.75 as of 24 Apr 15:30. It also lists Swiggy’s stock price at ₹287.35 as of April 24, 2026.

Over the past 12 months, Swiggy has underperformed Eternal, delivering a return of -13% compared with Eternal’s +10% growth. This relative performance is frequently cited in brokerage notes as part of the “turnaround versus stability” framing for investors looking at the two names.

Valuation and multiples: what changed, what stands out

The data also includes a P/E change for Eternal: its P/E ratio moved from 455.9 in March 2024 to 347.4 in March 2025, representing a CAGR of -12.71% over two years. For Swiggy, the P/E ratio is shown as 0 on March 2021 and 0 on March 2025.

In a separate valuation comparison, Swiggy is shown with an intrinsic value of ₹316.88 and “undervaluation 7%,” alongside a referenced price of ₹295.8. Eternal is shown with an intrinsic value of ₹214.52 and “overvaluation 18%,” alongside a referenced price of ₹260.09. These figures are presented as part of a DCF and multiples-based framework in the supplied dataset.

Why quick commerce is now the core debate

Across broker commentaries in the provided text, the sector’s “stable duopoly” narrative in food delivery remains intact, but the primary growth catalyst is increasingly identified as quick commerce. Eternal’s Blinkit and Swiggy’s Instamart are repeatedly highlighted as the key drivers that could shape profitability paths and valuation re-rating potential.

Some brokerages have trimmed target prices to account for heightened competition, but the overall stance described remains largely positive. The same dataset notes that analyst sentiment is “largely positive,” with recommendations varying by risk appetite and strategic focus.

Eternal: profitability track record and Blinkit’s lead

Eternal is described as a more stable investment in the provided material, supported by existing profitability and the market leadership of Blinkit. The text also notes Eternal’s inclusion in the NIFTY50 index.

In Q2FY26, Eternal reported a sequential revenue jump of 89.7% to ₹13,590 crore and a net profit increase of 160% to ₹65 crore. Another brokerage view cited in the text (HSBC) notes that Blinkit maintains a significant lead over Instamart in both growth and profitability.

Swiggy: turnaround focus and margin recovery

Swiggy is framed as a turnaround story with significant upside potential, with the core monitoring points being cost control and improving unit economics. The text cites that strong cost discipline and optimised incentives helped reduce cash burn by 50% QoQ in 2QFY26.

It also states that management expects Instamart to achieve breakeven by 1QFY27, supported by improved dark-store throughput and higher average order value (AOV). Separately, the text flags that improving AOVs, throughput, and take rates are among the operating metrics that could support a profitability-led re-rating.

Q4FY26 preview: growth strong, margins diverge

Preview estimates included in the provided data point to strong year-on-year growth for both companies in Q4FY26, with different margin trajectories.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Eternal to report revenue of around ₹17,600 crore (up 7.9% QoQ and 201.7% YoY), with EBITDA estimated at ₹478 crore and EBITDA margin expected at 2.7%. For Swiggy, Nuvama expects revenue of about ₹6,555 crore (up 6.6% QoQ and 48.6% YoY), with EBITDA losses narrowing to about ₹(675.6) crore and EBITDA margin improving to -10.3% from -12.7%. Adjusted losses are estimated at ₹(814.8) crore.

Elara Securities’ preview estimates are similar in direction: Eternal revenue around ₹17,598 crore (up 203.4% YoY), EBITDA about ₹474 crore and EBITDA margin at 2.7%, with recurring PAT projected at ₹124.9 crore. For Swiggy, Elara expects revenue of about ₹6,421 crore (up 45.6% YoY), EBITDA losses of about ₹(758) crore, EBITDA margin of -11.8%, and recurring losses at ₹(814.8) crore.

Where broker targets cluster right now

Several broker targets and ratings are listed in the provided text. Motilal Oswal, Nomura, Citi, UBS and JM Financial are among those cited, with most ratings shown as ‘Buy’ except JM Financial’s ‘Reduce’ on Swiggy.

Market impact: what investors are reacting to

The immediate market relevance is that BNP Paribas reduced target prices but still indicated 39-48% upside, signalling that it sees valuation and/or earnings power remaining supportive even after macro-risk adjustments. The same set of notes also shows how investors are being asked to balance two profiles: Eternal’s profitability and Blinkit leadership versus Swiggy’s turnaround and improving margins.

The data also reflects that price references can differ across sources and dates (for example, Swiggy at ₹287.30, ₹287.35 and ₹295.8; Eternal around ₹256.75, ₹257.35 and ₹260.09). For readers, this matters mainly for interpreting upside percentages and valuation comparisons in context of the specific reference price used.

What to watch next

Near-term focus is likely to stay on the upcoming Q4FY26 results and the operating metrics highlighted in preview notes, including EBITDA trends and margin movement. For Eternal, investors will track whether profitability continues to scale alongside quick commerce expansion, and how the inventory-led model and contribution margins progress.

For Swiggy, the key monitorables remain the pace of narrowing EBITDA losses, execution in Instamart, and progress toward the breakeven timeline mentioned for 1QFY27. Broker notes in the dataset consistently point to quick commerce unit economics and operating leverage as the central swing factors.

Conclusion

BNP Paribas has cut target multiples and target prices for Eternal and Swiggy to reflect peer valuations and macro risk, but still sees 48% and 39% upside respectively, and prefers Eternal. With multiple broker targets clustered well above current prices in the provided data, the next major checkpoint is Q4FY26 performance and the pace of profitability improvement, especially in quick commerce.