Chambal Fertilisers: ₹559.5 Fair Value, Feb 2026 Meet

Analysts keep fair value unchanged at ₹559.50

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals at ₹559.50 per share. The call was based on unchanged assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and the future P/E multiple. The only change flagged was a marginal refresh to discount rate inputs, which did not move the fair value.

The unchanged estimate is being read by bullish analysts as a sign that the company’s earnings profile remains reasonably clear under current assumptions. For investors, the update matters because it indicates that valuation views are being held steady even after tweaks to model inputs such as discount rates.

Why the upcoming results meeting is in focus

The same note points to an upcoming results meeting as a near-term event that could support sentiment. Separately, the company’s earnings calendar data in the provided material shows an earnings date of 10 February 2026 (listed as Q3 FY25-26 | 10th, Feb, 2026). With the fair value held constant, market attention typically shifts to the next set of reported numbers and management commentary.

Operationally, the company has also been discussing segment performance and margin drivers in its communications. That includes questions raised around segment profitability and quarter-on-quarter variations in the profit mix, which investors tend to track closely in a fertiliser business where subsidies, raw material costs, and product mix can materially change quarterly outcomes.

Dividend signal: ₹5 per share announced

Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals has declared a dividend of ₹5.00 per share (face value ₹10) in the current financial year, with the date cited as 11 Nov, 2025 in the provided data. The material also notes:

• Dividend yield: around 2.3% (also shown as 2.35% in key metrics)
• Payout ratio: 21%
• Dividends in the past 12 months: ₹10.00 per share
• Dividend history: 6 dividends since 2023

Dividend visibility is relevant for a stock that is also being discussed through a fair value lens, because the payout can anchor total shareholder returns when earnings are volatile.

TTM financial snapshot in ₹ crore (normalised)

The article data includes an income statement (TTM) with revenue presented in ₹ billions. Normalising into ₹ crore, the headline numbers are:

• Revenue: ₹204.57b = ₹20,457 crore
• Cost of revenue: ₹131.01b = ₹13,101 crore
• Gross profit: ₹73.57b = ₹7,357 crore
• Other expenses: ₹54.42b = ₹5,442 crore
• Earnings: ₹19.14b = ₹1,914 crore

The same dataset shows EPS (TTM) at ₹47.78, gross margin 35.96%, and net profit margin 9.36%.

Quarterly performance highlights referenced

The performance summary in the provided content lists Q3 FY25-26 figures (dated 10 Feb 2026) with:

• Revenue: ₹5,898 crore (QoQ -8.02%, YoY +19.93%)
• Gross profit: ₹732 crore (QoQ -2.93%, YoY +5.48%)
• Net profit: ₹564 crore (QoQ -6.20%)

Another quarterly comparison in the material states that in Q4 2024-2025, revenue was ₹2,534.71 crore and net profit was ₹130.36 crore, with a net profit margin of 5.14%.

FY25 vs FY24: revenue down, profit up

A separate “bundle” section provides a fiscal comparison for the year ended 31 March 2025:

• FY25 revenue: ₹16,646.20 crore
• FY24 revenue: ₹17,966.41 crore
• YoY change: -7.35%

At the same time, management commentary included in the provided text cites full-year profitability improvements:

• FY25 EBITDA: ₹2,838 crore vs ₹2,438 crore
• FY25 PAT: ₹1,657 crore vs ₹1,331 crore

This combination of lower revenue but higher profits is the type of divergence investors typically examine through the lens of subsidy receipts, cost controls, and product mix.

Stock and valuation markers cited in the data

The dataset includes several valuation and market metrics that frame investor expectations:

• P/E: 8.90x
• P/B: 1.91x
• Market cap: ₹16,965.62 crore
• VWAP: ₹422.64
• 52-week high/low: ₹742.20 / ₹399.75

A separate valuation block also references a market price of ₹445.35 (22-Dec-2025) and a target price of ₹601.67, implying 35.1% upside as per that dataset. The same bundle mentions a reported stock high of ₹654.85 in April 2025.

Key data table

Business mix signals from management commentary

The provided transcript excerpts point to growth in the CPCSM business. In Q4 FY25, CPCSM revenues were stated as ₹39 crore compared with ₹15 crore last year. The text also mentions total revenues of ₹926 crore compared with ₹760 crore, and contribution of ₹247 crore compared with ₹175 crore.

The same commentary notes the introduction of 12 new CPC products during FY25, and that 8% of revenue in the referenced CTCSM/CPCSM mix came from biologicals. These details matter because fertiliser companies often try to broaden beyond commodity exposure through crop protection and specialty products.

What the current setup means for investors

With analysts holding fair value at ₹559.50, attention shifts to whether upcoming financial results and management commentary reinforce the same revenue and margin assumptions. Dividend information remains a second anchor, with a ₹5 per share declaration and a dividend yield shown around 2.3% in the data.

The numbers also highlight cross-currents: FY25 revenue declined versus FY24 in the cited fiscal comparison, while other profitability figures show higher EBITDA and PAT year-on-year. Near-term quarterly performance adds another layer, with the referenced Q3 FY25-26 snapshot showing ₹5,898 crore revenue and ₹564 crore net profit, alongside QoQ declines in both.

Conclusion

Chambal Fertilisers is being tracked around two immediate markers: a steady ₹559.50 fair value view and the next results schedule on 10 February 2026 as shown in the data. Alongside this, the ₹5 per share dividend and the company’s margin and mix commentary are likely to remain central to investor focus until the next set of reported numbers and management updates.