Delhivery stock: Motilal sees ₹580 target post Q4 earnings

Stock reaction: decline despite bullish notes

Delhivery Ltd shares closed 4.20% lower at ₹455.70, compared with the previous close of ₹475.70, even as broker commentary after earnings stayed positive. In a separate market update referenced in the same information set, the stock was also described as slipping nearly 6% despite a strong quarter and margin expansion. The mixed tape highlights a familiar pattern in results season: price action can diverge from analyst targets, especially when valuations and near-term expectations are debated. What stood out in this case is that multiple brokerages continued to project meaningful upside even after the drop.

Motilal Oswal: Buy rating and ₹580 target

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) reiterated a BUY rating on Delhivery with a revised DCF-based target price (TP) of ₹580. The brokerage framed the call around continued momentum in core transportation businesses and a clear focus on profitability. MOSL also said it expects Delhivery to sustain service EBITDA margins in the 16%-18% band over the next two years. Alongside this, MOSL expects Delhivery to deliver a CAGR of 13% in revenue and 33% in EBITDA over FY26-28E.

What MOSL is watching inside the business

MOSL highlighted Express Parcel and PTL (part truck load) as the key segments delivering strong volume growth and healthy service EBITDA margins. The thesis is that scale in transportation, combined with cost control, can keep profitability improving without relying on one-off levers. MOSL also pointed to improved industry structure in B2C logistics as a valuation support. It referenced Delhivery’s balance sheet at ₹4,200 crore for FY26.

Integration and product additions referenced by analysts

In the analyst commentary included, MOFSL said the integration of “Ecom Express” is expected to enhance network efficiency and reduce capital intensity. The same note cited new services such as “Delhivery Direct” and “Rapid” as longer-term growth options in on-demand and time-sensitive logistics. These remarks were presented as strategic drivers rather than near-term quantified impacts. The emphasis remained on network efficiency, asset optimisation, and acquisitions supporting profit-accretive growth.

Other brokerage targets: ₹590 and ₹600 also on the table

The information set also referenced a buy call from ICICI Securities with a target of ₹600. Another analyst note raised a March 2027 target to ₹590, citing lower capex than earlier estimated and valuing the stock at 32x FY28 adjusted EBITDA. Together, these targets frame a broad bullish range around the ₹580-₹600 level. At the same time, one MOFS update after Q1 results mentioned a target price being raised to ₹500 from ₹480, while retaining a Buy rating, indicating that targets can vary across reports and time periods.

Recent performance markers cited in the reports

Delhivery shares were described as up 23% year-to-date and up 41% over the last three months, while still down 32% over the past three years. The company’s market capitalisation was cited at ₹32,092 crore. These figures underline a recovery phase in the stock, but also show that longer-term returns have been uneven. For investors, that backdrop helps explain why margin durability and execution on integration are being closely tracked.

Financial snapshot mentioned: 1QFY26 growth and margins

One part of the provided text reported that Delhivery’s revenue rose 6% year-on-year to ₹2,290 crore in 1QFY26. EBITDA for the quarter was reported at ₹150 crore, up 53% year-on-year, with EBITDA margin improving to 6.5%. Adjusted PAT was cited at ₹91.1 crore, also up 53% year-on-year, supported by margin expansion and disciplined cost management. Separately, another update said the company posted a 68.5% year-on-year rise in net profit to ₹91 crore for the June quarter, indicating a broadly consistent profit number in rupee terms.

Forecasts and margin trajectory referenced across notes

MOSL stated that Delhivery clocked EBITDA of ₹764 crore in FY26, and reiterated that 16%-18% service EBITDA margins could be sustained over the next two years. In a separate MOSL initiation-style table included in the text, EBITDA estimates were presented in a different series (for example, FY26E EBITDA shown as ₹560 crore), which suggests the data points are drawn from different reports or periods. Another MOSL note projected EBITDA margin expansion from 4.2% in FY25 to 7% by FY28, supported by scale efficiencies and a better segment mix, especially PTL.

Key numbers at a glance

MOSL forecast table cited (converted to ₹ crore)

Market impact and what investors are likely to track next

The immediate market impact was a decline in the stock price even as analyst commentary stayed constructive, suggesting that the results, guidance interpretation, or valuation expectations may have been priced in. For fundamentals-focused investors, the core variables highlighted in the notes are volumes in Express Parcel and PTL, service EBITDA margin stability, and the pace of network and integration benefits. The brokerage commentary also repeatedly referenced capital intensity and capex assumptions as key valuation inputs, which can directly influence DCF-based targets. Going forward, investors will likely watch whether quarterly profitability continues to improve in line with the margin expansion narrative cited across the reports.

Conclusion

Delhivery’s post-results move shows that price action can remain volatile even when brokerages reiterate buy calls and raise or maintain targets. MOSL’s reiterated BUY with a ₹580 target rests on transportation-led growth, improving profitability, and expectations of sustained service EBITDA margins. Other targets cited, including ₹590 and ₹600, reinforce the view that analysts are focused on medium-term margin and efficiency improvements. The next set of quarterly updates should clarify whether growth in Express Parcel and PTL and the integration-led efficiency claims continue to show up in reported margins and profits.