Eternal Q3 Preview: Blinkit's Growth to Fuel 193% Revenue Surge

Introduction to Eternal's Q3 Expectations

Eternal Ltd, formerly Zomato, is poised to announce strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, ending in December. Market consensus and brokerage reports indicate a period of substantial growth, primarily fueled by the aggressive expansion of its quick commerce division, Blinkit. Analysts project a massive year-on-year consolidated revenue surge of approximately 193%, with profit after tax also expected to rise by over 50%. This performance is largely attributed to Blinkit's transition to a first-party (1P) business model and its continued momentum in capturing the quick commerce market. While the headline numbers suggest a robust quarter, investors will be closely monitoring the underlying profitability, especially the persistent losses in the Blinkit segment and the performance of the core food delivery business.

Brokerage Projections: A Snapshot

Leading financial institutions have released their estimates for Eternal's Q3 performance, painting a picture of strong top-line growth. While specific figures vary, the overall sentiment is bullish on revenue and net profit. The significant increase in sales is a recurring theme, though it is partly inflated by the accounting changes from Blinkit's 1P model transition.

Here is a summary of projections from various brokerages:

These forecasts highlight the market's confidence in Eternal's ability to scale its operations, but the focus remains on how this growth translates into sustainable profitability.

Blinkit: The Primary Growth Engine

Blinkit is undeniably the star performer and the main catalyst for Eternal's anticipated growth. The quick commerce segment is expected to report a year-on-year increase in Net Order Value (NOV) between 122% and 123%. This expansion is supported by a rapid increase in its network of dark stores. Kotak Equities estimates that Blinkit added around 284 new stores during the quarter, bringing its total to approximately 2,100 outlets. This physical expansion allows for greater market penetration and higher order density. However, analysts note that recent GST rate revisions could impact Net Merchandise Value (NMV) growth by 3-4%.

The Profitability Challenge in Quick Commerce

Despite its impressive top-line growth, Blinkit's path to profitability remains a central concern for investors. The segment is expected to continue reporting losses at the adjusted EBITDA level. Nuvama projects an adjusted EBITDA loss of around ₹130 crore, while Kotak Equities models a loss of ₹140 crore. MOFSL anticipates an adjusted EBITDA margin of minus 1.3% as a percentage of NOV. While these figures represent a slight sequential improvement due to better take rates, they underscore the high operational costs associated with rapid expansion and intense competition in the quick commerce space. Management's commentary on a clear timeline to profitability for Blinkit will be a key focal point during the earnings announcement.

Food Delivery: A Story of Stable Growth

Eternal's core food delivery business is expected to deliver steady, albeit more moderate, growth. Projections for Gross Order Value (GOV) or Net Order Value (NOV) growth range from 12% to 19% year-on-year. This indicates stable consumer demand but a slower pace of acceleration compared to previous quarters. The segment's profitability, however, continues to improve. Brokerages foresee adjusted EBITDA margins as a percentage of GOV rising, with estimates ranging from 4.5% to 5.5%. This improvement is driven by operational efficiencies and stable take rates, which are expected to hold around 21.5%. The food delivery vertical remains Eternal's most stable and profitable business, providing a crucial financial cushion against the losses incurred by its newer ventures.

Hyperpure and Other Business Ventures

The Hyperpure segment, Eternal's B2B supplies arm for restaurants, is also on a strong growth trajectory. Kotak Equities models a 71% year-on-year growth in Hyperpure's revenues, driven by increased penetration among restaurant partners and scaling of its supply chain. However, losses from Blinkit and other newer businesses like District are expected to weigh on the company's consolidated profitability. Nuvama expects a marginal contraction in the consolidated EBITDA margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis due to these investments.

Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment

Ahead of its Q3 results, the technical structure for Eternal's stock appears cautious. Despite the strong fundamental expectations, the stock has been trading below its key 21, 50, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which is often interpreted as a bearish signal by technical analysts. The stock faces immediate resistance in the ₹295-₹300 zone. A failure to reclaim this level could indicate further weakness. On the downside, the next crucial support level is seen around ₹240-₹245. The overall technical outlook remains negative unless the stock can achieve a decisive close above the ₹300 mark.

Conclusion: Balancing Growth with Profitability

Eternal Ltd is set to report a quarter of remarkable revenue growth, driven almost entirely by the hyper-scaling of Blinkit. While the food delivery business provides a stable and profitable foundation, the company's future trajectory is increasingly tied to the success of its quick commerce ambitions. Investors will look beyond the headline revenue figures to scrutinize the underlying unit economics, margin trends, and management's strategy for steering Blinkit towards profitability. The key challenge for Eternal remains balancing aggressive expansion and market share gains with the imperative of building a sustainable and profitable business model across all its segments.