India defence exports surge 25x to ₹38,400 crore in FY26

Record FY26 exports flagged in Rubix report

India’s defence exports have grown 25 times since FY17 to a record ₹38,400 crore in FY26, according to a Rubix Data Sciences report. The report was released on the first anniversary of ‘Operation Sindoor’, the codename used for targeted strikes by Indian military forces against terrorist outfits in Pakistan. The Rubix note frames the export surge as part of a broader, decade-long structural shift in India’s defence industry.

In the provided material, the FY26 export number is also cited as ₹38,424 crore in one section. The Rubix report headline figure, however, is stated as ₹38,400 crore.

What India is exporting, and where it is going

Rubix says India now exports defence equipment to more than 80 countries. The product mix highlighted includes BrahMos missiles, Akash air defence systems, naval vessels, Swathi radars, and artillery systems. The breadth of platforms listed points to exports spanning missiles, air defence, naval platforms, and surveillance and firepower-related equipment.

The report’s summary positions India as moving beyond a purely domestic procurement cycle and building an export-oriented manufacturing footprint. It also suggests that the country’s export offering is no longer limited to components and spares, with complete systems and platforms increasingly mentioned in the export basket.

Production growth over a decade

Rubix reports that India’s defence production has grown from ₹50,000 crore in FY15 to a record ₹154,000 crore in FY25. It adds that the government is targeting defence production of ₹300,000 crore by FY29. Elsewhere in the provided text, the same FY29 production ambition is also expressed as ₹3 trillion, which is equivalent to ₹300,000 crore.

The report also mentions a 3.2 times jump in production over 10 years. This framing aligns with the FY15 to FY25 production figures cited in the material and supports the claim that output growth has been steady over a multi-year cycle rather than driven by a single large order.

Indigenisation shift: domestic share now at 65%

A key change highlighted in the Rubix note is the domestic production share. Around 65% of India’s defence equipment is now produced domestically, the firm said. This is described as a reversal of the import dependence that defined the sector a decade ago, when imports accounted for about 65% to 70% of requirements.

The shift matters because it changes how defence spending translates into local manufacturing, jobs, and supplier ecosystems. It also affects the competitiveness of Indian suppliers when export opportunities open up, since higher localisation can improve pricing flexibility and supply assurance.

India still imports heavily, but suppliers are changing

Rubix notes that India remains the world’s second-largest arms importer, even as it scales up domestic production and exports. The report adds that India is diversifying its supplier base. Russia’s share of India’s arms imports is said to have declined from 70% in 2011–2015 to 40% in 2021–2025.

In the same period, France is cited as emerging as the second-largest supplier at 29%, followed by Israel at 15%. These shifts suggest a more diversified import mix, even as indigenisation improves across certain categories.

Government targets: ₹50,000 crore defence exports by FY29

The government’s defence export target is stated as ₹50,000 crore by FY29 across multiple sections of the provided material. This target is positioned as a continuation of the export momentum described in the Rubix report.

The text also includes several export milestone references for FY25 and FY24, including exports crossing ₹21,000 crore in FY25, exports at ₹23,600 crore in FY25, a cited record of ₹23,622 crore in FY25, and ₹23,600 crore in FY24 in one brokerage-style reference. These figures are presented in the source material as separate claims from different contexts, while the Rubix-highlighted FY26 record is ₹38,400 crore.

Sector opportunity: ₹15 trillion over five years

One section of the provided material states that India’s defence sector is looking at a ₹15 trillion revenue opportunity over the next five years. In normalized terms, that is ₹1,500,000 crore. The same section links the opportunity to rising government spending, indigenisation, and strong global demand.

It also identifies large listed players such as Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Bharat Electronics (BEL), and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) among those “leading the push,” and notes that export growth is being used as a key pillar in the broader industry narrative.

Companies and stock-market lens in the provided material

The material points to an “opportunity concentrated among five major companies”: Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Dynamics, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Larsen & Toubro’s defence arm. Separately, it lists “Top Defence Stocks” as HAL, BEL, BDL, Zen Technologies, Data Patterns, and MTAR.

It also cites analyst-style expectations for some names. For BEL, the text mentions price targets of ₹393–₹415 and an upside of 27%–30%, alongside a note about potential Q3 earnings risk due to supply chain disruptions. For Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, it mentions growth potential of 20%–25% tied to submarine and destroyer projects in 2026. For Bharat Dynamics, it mentions an estimated 25% upside in one section, but another section states a “Sell” initiation due to margin pressures and limited earnings visibility.

The material also notes that HAL, BEL, and Mazagon Dock have traded at P/E multiples well above 30x in many market conditions in recent periods, reflecting optimism around order book execution and export growth.

Key numbers at a glance

Why this matters for India’s defence ecosystem

The Rubix figures underline that exports and domestic output are rising in parallel, which changes how investors and policymakers track the sector. A higher domestic production share can strengthen supply chains and reduce vulnerability to external procurement shocks, while a broader export footprint can help manufacturers smoothen revenue cycles that are otherwise driven by lumpy domestic ordering.

At the same time, the report’s comment that India remains the world’s second-largest arms importer highlights the transition is still underway. The changing supplier shares, with Russia’s portion declining and France and Israel gaining share, suggests the import story is evolving even as indigenisation expands.

What to watch next

The key near-term monitorable in the provided material is the government’s stated target of ₹50,000 crore in defence exports by FY29 and the production ambition of ₹300,000 crore by FY29. Readers will also track how the product set mentioned by Rubix, including missiles, air defence systems, naval platforms, and radars, translates into repeat orders across the more than 80-country buyer base.

Another focal point is how listed defence companies execute on order books and manage supply chains, given that the material itself flags possible disruptions in at least one company context. Any further updates tied to Defence Acquisition Council approvals and subsequent contracting will also be relevant to the domestic manufacturing pipeline.