Infosys Q4 Preview 2026: Guidance, AI and key levels

Why Infosys results matter for the IT pack

Infosys shares traded lower on Thursday as the company prepared to announce its March-quarter earnings later in the day. The stock’s move is being watched closely because Infosys is a bellwether for the Indian IT services sector, and its commentary often shapes near-term sentiment across the space. The broader setup has been cautious, with the Nifty IT Index also trading lower amid mixed results in the sector so far. Traders and long-term investors are focusing not just on the quarter’s numbers, but also on what the company says about demand conditions and client spending.

What happened to the stock ahead of earnings

In Thursday’s trade, Infosys was quoted around Rs 1,251, down about 1.25% from Wednesday’s close of Rs 1,268. Latest NSE data also showed the stock down 1.44% at Rs 1,250.70 in morning trade on April 23. Separate market updates put the stock around Rs 1,250.60, down 1.50%, keeping it close to its 52-week low of Rs 1,215.10. Intraday, the stock moved between Rs 1,265.50 and Rs 1,243. The day’s weakness came alongside broader pressure in IT names, with HCL Technologies and Wipro among the major losers in morning trade.

What the market expects from the March quarter

Brokerage expectations point to a seasonally soft quarter, with revenue seen under pressure due to fewer working days and furloughs. One expectation cited was a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter decline in constant currency, linked to fewer working days and partial productivity pass-through. Kotak Institutional Equities, in its Q4 forecast, said Infosys’ revenue may slip 1% quarter-to-quarter, citing seasonal weakness. Even with revenue pressure, analysts broadly expect margins to hold up, though currency movement and higher visa costs remain on the radar. The market is also tracking whether the company flags any further “AI-led deflation” concerns.

Margins, costs and the buyback-related profit lens

Alongside revenue, investors are scanning for commentary on margins and costs, particularly those linked to visas and currency impacts. Kotak Institutional Equities said it expects stable revenues from the sale of third-party items. The brokerage also flagged that a sharp decline in other income after the completion of a buyback could lead to only moderate net profit growth. Separately, analysts have pointed to the role of wage revisions and visa costs in the near-term margin trajectory, even as cost optimisation remains a support.

Deal wins and TCV: a key metric investors track

Deal wins remain a critical metric into results, and some expectations are already in the market. Kotak Institutional Equities said it expects large deal total contract value (TCV) of US$1.5-2.75 billion, stable on a year-on-year comparison. Investors are also watching for signs of improved deal momentum after Infosys reported US$1.5 billion in total contract value in the December quarter, a 21.9% annual decline. The focus is not only on headline deal signings, but also on whether large deal ramp-ups are progressing.

FY27 guidance, AI roadmap and dividend in focus

Beyond Q4 numbers, attention is on forward guidance and management commentary. Market participants expect FY27 revenue guidance to be a major swing factor for sentiment, especially with the sector facing uncertainty on discretionary spending. Infosys’ AI roadmap and the company’s positioning on client adoption are also under scrutiny, given concerns around pricing and productivity benefits. The board’s decision on dividends is another key item investors are tracking alongside earnings.

Snapshot: key facts in play before results

What was known from the last reported quarter

Infosys reported an 8.9% year-on-year rise in consolidated revenue to Rs 45,479 crore in Q3FY26 from Rs 41,764 crore in Q3FY25. Net profit (after non-controlling interests) declined 2.2% year-on-year to Rs 6,654 crore in Q3FY26 from Rs 6,806 crore in Q3FY25. Those numbers set a reference point for investors heading into the seasonally softer March quarter. The market’s immediate question is whether Q4 softness is largely calendar-driven, or whether it also reflects demand hesitation.

What analysts and market voices are saying on the stock

Equinomics Research Founder and MD G Chokkalingam said he maintains a ‘buy’ recommendation, arguing that a pessimistic outlook for the IT industry is already reflected in the stock price. He also pointed to valuation around 17x P/E as reasonable, and cited dividend yield of around 3.5%. Chokkalingam added that recent AI integration initiatives could help mitigate risk and that an attractive buyback is possible, considering cash on hand and changes related to tax on buybacks. Separately, a media report cited a target price of Rs 1,672, alongside expectations of 3.4% revenue growth in constant currency for FY26, deal wins of US$11.7 billion, and margins around 20.7%.

Market impact: why today’s numbers can move the sector

The immediate market impact is tied to guidance, because the IT sector is already dealing with mixed Q4 prints and cautious positioning. Infosys’ revenue trajectory, deal commentary, and margin stability can influence not only its stock but also sentiment for peers in the Nifty IT basket. With the stock trading near supports such as Rs 1,240 and Rs 1,230, the earnings outcome and FY27 commentary can also set the near-term technical direction. For investors, the key is whether Infosys can show resilience in deal momentum and give clarity on demand trends, while keeping margins stable despite currency and visa-related costs.

Conclusion

Infosys heads into its March-quarter earnings with the stock hovering near Rs 1,250 and the sector on a cautious footing. Revenue softness is expected due to fewer working days and furloughs, while investors are also watching margins, deal TCV, dividend decisions, and especially FY27 guidance and AI commentary. The next clear signal for the stock is expected after the earnings release and the management’s outlook discussion later in the day.