Diamond-studded gold jewellery market projected to grow 16.2%

India’s diamond-studded gold jewellery market is projected by CareEdge Research to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% from CY25 to CY30P. The market is forecast to increase from Rs 48,510 crore in CY25 to Rs 1,02,720 crore in CY30P, supported by branded retail, lightweight designs and retail formalisation.

How fast will the diamond-studded gold jewellery market grow through 2030?

The diamond-studded gold jewellery market is projected to grow faster in CY25-CY30P than it grew in CY20-CY25, with its CAGR rising from 15.3% to 16.2%. CAGR is the annualised rate of growth over a multi-year period, while “P” denotes a projected calendar year. CareEdge Research estimates that the market will add Rs 54,210 crore between CY25 and CY30P, after growing from Rs 23,830 crore in CY20 to Rs 48,510 crore in CY25.

The historical increase of Rs 24,680 crore from CY20 to CY25 is smaller than the projected Rs 54,210 crore increase over the following five calendar years. The projected rate therefore requires demand to persist after the COVID-recovery period and retailers to keep expanding access to the category. CareEdge Research attributes the CY25-CY30P outlook to premiumisation, meaning a shift towards higher-value products, and to greater market formalisation.

Why is the diamond-studded gold jewellery market growing faster?

The diamond-studded gold jewellery market is being supported by demand for branded, design-led jewellery that CareEdge Research says consumers perceive as more premium than plain gold pieces. The source identifies young urban consumers and working women as important buyers of lightweight and trend-led designs. Weddings, anniversaries and self-purchase occasions are also raising buying frequency beyond traditional bridal demand.

Branded retailers are widening the customer base through certification, lightweight designs and financing plans, according to CareEdge Research. These mechanisms matter because diamond prices, gold prices and import duties can affect the final consumer price. The 16.2% projection depends on retailers continuing to convert demand through these offerings while consumers retain confidence in branded products and certified jewellery.

Urbanisation, rising disposable incomes and increasing brand awareness are extending demand beyond metropolitan markets into Tier II and Tier III cities. Organised players are adding stores, marketing and omnichannel access, meaning a retailer uses both physical and digital customer touchpoints. E-commerce provides another route to compare designs and prices, while customisation serves affluent customers seeking individual designs.

How does organised retail affect the diamond-studded gold jewellery market?

Organised retail has room to capture incremental growth because it represented 36.7% of India’s retail gold jewellery market in CY25, while the unorganised segment held 63.3%. The wider market remains fragmented because small retailers and manufacturers often supply gold to karigars, or artisans, who make the finished jewellery for labour charges. That decentralised model supports customisation but can produce variability in quality and limit scalability.

For the diamond-studded gold jewellery market to maintain its forecast growth rate, formal retailers must translate certification, transparency and a consistent shopping experience into purchases. Mandatory hallmarking of gold jewellery, introduced in January 2021, increased the focus on certified products. Hallmarking verifies gold purity, while transparent billing and buyback policies are among the features CareEdge Research identifies as drawing consumers towards branded stores.

The shift is not automatic because local jewellers retain cultural ties, customer relationships, rural reach and flexible payment arrangements. CareEdge Research notes that some local retailers allow delivery before payment in instalments. Organised chains are responding with company-owned and franchise stores in Tier II and Tier III cities, as well as loyalty programmes and omnichannel retail; their share of incremental growth depends on continued expansion and consumer acceptance.

What supply and policy factors could change the outlook?

The diamond-studded gold jewellery market is exposed to imported inputs because India processes about 90% of the world’s rough diamonds by volume, while rough stones are principally sourced from mining hubs including Russia, Botswana and Canada. India’s cut-and-polished diamond exports were Rs 1,12,420 crore in FY25 and accounted for 47% of total gems and jewellery exports. Volatility in rough-diamond prices, imported raw-material dependence and competition from synthetic diamonds are therefore relevant risks for the domestic category.

Lab-grown diamonds are gaining acceptance because the source describes them as a more affordable and sustainable alternative to natural stones. This can broaden choice for consumers but also changes competitive conditions for natural-diamond jewellery. International traceability and ethical-sourcing requirements are another consideration for the industry, particularly because export competitiveness remains important to India’s diamond-processing value chain.

Policy changes can also alter jewellery costs. In July 2024, customs duty on gold and silver was cut from 15% to 6%; in May 2026, it was raised to 15%, comprising 10% Basic Customs Duty and 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess. CareEdge Research says the May 2026 increase is expected to raise jewellery prices and working-capital requirements for manufacturers and retailers, though it may encourage gold recycling within the organised sector.

Conclusion

The diamond-studded gold jewellery market forecast combines a rise from Rs 48,510 crore in CY25 to Rs 1,02,720 crore in CY30P with a projected 16.2% CAGR. The estimate depends on premium, lightweight and branded jewellery reaching more consumers through organised retail, certification, financing and omnichannel distribution, while weddings and self-purchases continue to support demand.

The next point to watch is whether retail formalisation advances from the CY25 base, when organised retailers held 36.7% of the broader retail gold jewellery market. CareEdge Research’s projection also remains exposed to gold and diamond price movements, imported raw-material dependence, lab-grown diamond competition and the May 2026 restoration of 15% customs duty on gold and silver.