India’s fixed-broadband gap points to 110-126 million users

India’s fixed-broadband gap is reflected in penetration below 5% of population in CY24, even as subscriptions are projected to rise from 46.5 million in FY26 to 110-126 million by FY31. The forecast depends on fibre deployment, last-mile connections and alternatives such as Fixed Wireless Access where wireline installation is difficult.

Why is India’s fixed-broadband penetration below 5%?

India’s fixed-broadband penetration is below 5% per 100 people because wireline networks require expensive physical infrastructure, lengthy installation work and permissions for rights of way. India’s CY24 rate was below Brazil’s 24%, Russia’s 27%, the US’s 39%, China’s 47% and France’s 49%. Penetration measures subscriptions per 100 people, rather than the number of internet users.

Mobile broadband has also met many connectivity needs that could otherwise have required household fixed lines. India’s mobile-broadband penetration increased from 3.1% in CY13 to 61.9% in CY24, while China reached 131.8% in CY24. A rate above 100% indicates multiple mobile subscriptions per person across devices, but India’s 61.9% mobile rate remains far above its fixed-broadband rate of below 5%.

Last-mile connectivity, the final network link to a home or business, remains difficult in dense urban areas and remote rural locations. The source identifies high fibre-installation costs, complex permits and infrastructure gaps as barriers, while providers tend to focus on high-density areas. Smaller internet service providers, or ISPs, also face competition from Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel when extending fixed networks beyond urban centres.

How quickly could India’s fixed-broadband subscriber base expand?

India’s fixed-broadband subscriber base could more than double by FY31, with projections of 110-126 million subscriptions from 46.5 million in FY26. That outlook implies a 19-22% compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, between FY26 and FY31, compared with the 14.2% CAGR recorded from FY19 to FY26. CAGR is the annualised rate linking a starting value and an ending value over a stated period.

Fixed-broadband subscriptions increased from 18.4 million in FY19 to 46.5 million in FY26, a gain of 152.7%. Mobile-broadband subscriptions increased from 544.9 million to 1,019.4 million, or 87.1%, over the same period. Fixed subscriptions therefore expanded faster from a smaller base, while mobile subscriptions were about 22 times the fixed total in FY26.

The projected acceleration requires faster connection deployment than in FY19-FY26. Fibre-to-the-home, or FTTH, provides a fibre link to premises, while Fixed Wireless Access, or FWA, uses wireless technology for the final connection. The source identifies 5G-based AirFiber and other FWA offerings as ways to reduce lead times compared with traditional fixed-line installation, particularly where fibre access is limited.

What investment does India’s fixed-broadband gap require?

India’s fixed-broadband gap requires estimated combined private and government investment of Rs 4 lakh crore by CY30 to connect about 24 crore households with high-speed broadband. The source states that about 4 crore households are currently connected. The estimate therefore links the subscriber forecast to physical network construction rather than service-plan sales alone.

Fibre deployment is allocated 65-68% of the Rs 4 lakh crore requirement, the largest category in the stated investment mix. Passive infrastructure, the physical assets supporting networks, accounts for 20-22%; satellite broadband is allocated 5-7%; Wi-Fi and in-building solutions 2-4%; and data centres 1-2%. Continued fibre deployment must therefore account for most spending if the CY30 connection objective is to be met.

India had deployed 4.3 million route-kilometres, or RKm, of fibre-optic cable by December 2025. Bharti Airtel expanded its fibre network from about 0.3 million RKm in FY20 to about 0.4 million RKm in FY25. Fibre-optic cable transmits data using light and supports FTTH, mobile-network backhaul and high-capacity data links.

What is driving India’s fixed-broadband demand?

India’s fixed-broadband demand is rising because fixed connections carry substantially more data per subscription than mobile connections. Average monthly fixed-broadband usage increased from 13.0 gigabytes, or GB, in CY17 to 213.7 GB in CY23. Mobile usage increased from 4.7 GB per subscription in CY17 to 20.1 GB in CY24, making the reported CY23 fixed-broadband average more than 10 times the CY24 mobile average.

The source links this usage to remote work, online entertainment, gaming, cloud services and Internet of Things, or IoT, devices. It also distinguishes technical requirements: CAT5 networking cable can provide speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second, or Gbps, while CAT7 can provide about 10 Gbps. The source says CAT5 can suit home broadband, whereas offices and data centres usually use CAT7.

Rural broadband is another expansion channel, although the rural figures include more than fixed connections. Rural broadband subscribers rose from 227.0 million in FY19 to 440.9 million in FY26, representing a 9.9% CAGR, compared with 6.9% in urban areas. Local cable operators are identified as partners for extending FTTH and FWA into remote locations.

Which policies and technologies could narrow India’s fixed-broadband gap?

India’s disclosed programmes could narrow the fixed-broadband gap by expanding rural fibre networks and last-mile access. BharatNet had connected about 0.2 million gram panchayats with about 0.7 million kilometres of fibre-optic cable by December 2025 and had commissioned 1.4 million FTTH connections. The amended programme targets about 47,000 uncovered gram panchayats, about 0.4 million villages on a demand basis and about 15 million rural FTTH connections.

The National Broadband Mission targets about 5 million kilometres of fibre route length and fibre connectivity for about 70% of telecom towers. Tower fibreisation is the connection of mobile radio sites to fibre backhaul, which carries traffic from the tower into the wider network. India had achieved about 46% tower fibreisation in FY25, leaving a stated gap to the 70% target.

Fibre-led demand also dominates the associated cable market. Fibre-optic cables represented about 74.5% of India’s Rs 14,090 crore broadband-cables market in FY26, compared with 25.5% for networking cables. The overall market is projected to reach Rs 31,750 crore in FY31, while fibre-optic cables are projected to increase from Rs 10,500 crore in FY26 to Rs 23,310 crore in FY31.

Conclusion

India’s fixed-broadband opportunity arises from the difference between penetration below 5% in CY24 and the projected 110-126 million fixed subscriptions in FY31. Achieving that expansion requires fibre-led networks, FWA in difficult last-mile locations, local operator participation and sustained demand for data-intensive household and enterprise uses.

The next measures to watch are execution against disclosed targets. BharatNet’s goal of about 15 million rural FTTH connections, the National Broadband Mission targets of about 5 million kilometres of fibre and 70% tower fibreisation, and the Rs 4 lakh crore CY30 investment estimate will indicate whether network capacity can support projected subscriber growth.