Indian Diamond-Studded Gold Wholesale Market Is 54.50% Unorganised

Indian diamond-studded gold wholesale market is projected to remain majority unorganised through CY30P despite a gain in organised manufacturers’ share. IMARC Group and CareEdge Research estimate that unorganised manufacturers will account for 54.50% of a Rs 87,906 crore market in CY30P, compared with 57.34% of Rs 40,280 crore in CY25.

Why will the diamond-studded gold wholesale market remain 54.50% unorganised by CY30P?

The diamond-studded gold wholesale market will remain majority unorganised because unorganised manufacturers are projected to grow in value even while losing 2.84 percentage points of share. Their value is forecast to rise from Rs 23,094 crore in CY25 to Rs 47,909 crore in CY30P, while their share declines from 57.34% to 54.50%. The projected share change therefore represents a redistribution within an expanding market rather than the replacement of unorganised production.

Unorganised manufacturers benefit from lower overhead costs, traditional craftsmanship and knowledge of local consumer preferences, according to the market assessment. These features can support competitive pricing and personalised designs for budget-conscious customers. Partnerships with local retailers and e-commerce platforms may also extend their availability in a market where weddings and festivals remain material sources of jewellery demand.

The projection does not imply that organised manufacturers will stand still. Organised manufacturers are forecast to increase their share from 42.66% in CY25 to 45.50% in CY30P, and their value from Rs 17,184 crore to Rs 39,997 crore. That 2.84-percentage-point gain, however, is not sufficient to end the unorganised majority within the forecast period.

How fast is the diamond-studded gold wholesale market expected to grow?

The diamond-studded gold wholesale market is projected to grow from Rs 40,280 crore in CY25 to Rs 87,906 crore in CY30P at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.89%. CAGR is the annualised rate of growth over a stated period, rather than a requirement that every calendar year grows at the same rate. The CY30P estimate is more than twice the CY25 market value.

The CY25-CY30P projection is marginally faster than the market’s reported CY20-CY25 CAGR of 16.65%. The difference of 0.24 percentage points means the forecast assumes demand growth will continue at broadly the pace recorded in the preceding five years. The CY25 value of Rs 40,280 crore was reached after the reported CY20-CY25 expansion.

The stated demand drivers include a growing middle class, higher disposable income, branded-product preference, design innovation, customisation and online access. India is described as the world’s second-largest consumer of diamond jewellery, accounting for 11% of global consumption. For the 16.89% CAGR to be achieved, these demand channels must continue while manufacturers and retailers manage product affordability and availability.

What will change between organised and unorganised manufacturers?

The projected change is a modest move toward organised manufacturing, not a reversal of market leadership. Unorganised manufacturers are forecast to add Rs 24,815 crore in value between CY25 and CY30P, compared with Rs 22,813 crore for organised manufacturers. Because unorganised manufacturers begin from the larger CY25 base, they are projected to remain Rs 7,912 crore larger in CY30P.

Organised manufacturers are expected to pursue innovative designs, customisation, designer collaborations and expansion in Tier II and Tier III cities. The assessment identifies 3D printing as a method that can produce intricate jewellery designs efficiently and cost-effectively. Ethical sourcing and environmentally friendly practices are also cited as purchasing factors for some consumers.

Mandatory hallmarking is a separate formalisation mechanism, though the source does not link it to a specific CY30P market-share outcome. The Bureau of Indian Standards made gold hallmarking mandatory from June 2021, while gold jewellery products from July 1, 2021 required a Hallmark Unique Identification, or HUID, mark. The six-digit alphanumeric HUID is traceable and accompanies the Bureau of Indian Standards logo and purity information.

Which factors could affect the CY30P projection?

Weddings, festivals and urban demand provide a substantial demand base for the diamond-studded gold wholesale market. India hosts more than one crore weddings annually, while bridal jewellery accounts for at least half of the gold jewellery market. The source also states that an average of 40 to 60 tonnes of gold is sold during Diwali and Akshaya Tritiya, two major buying occasions.

Gold prices and household purchasing power could affect discretionary jewellery demand. Gold peaked at USD 4,135.24 per troy ounce at the end of CY25, which the source says dampened discretionary purchases and increased old-gold exchanges. Higher food and fuel inflation, as well as erratic rainfall that reduces crop yields, can limit rural post-harvest purchasing power.

Imported raw materials create another operating constraint. India imports more than 90% of its gold requirement, and gold imports totalled Rs 6,39,522 crore in FY26, up 30.58% from the previous year. Rough diamonds accounted for 46% of gems and jewellery imports and totalled Rs 92,217 crore in FY26, with about 66% to 68% imported mainly from the United Arab Emirates.

Laboratory-grown diamonds may change the product mix without independently determining the manufacturer-share forecast. Laboratory-grown diamonds have the same chemical, thermal, optical and physical properties as mined diamonds, according to the source, and avoid mining-related costs. Their acceptance, together with younger consumers’ preference for lightweight designs, may affect demand across diamond-studded jewellery categories.

Conclusion

The combined evidence points to substantial market expansion alongside only gradual formalisation in manufacturing. The diamond-studded gold wholesale market is projected to add Rs 47,626 crore between CY25 and CY30P, while organised manufacturers gain 2.84 percentage points of share. Unorganised manufacturers nevertheless remain the largest category because their projected Rs 47,909 crore value exceeds the organised segment’s Rs 39,997 crore.

The next issue to watch is whether the stated plans and trends in Tier II and Tier III expansion, customisation, 3D printing, certified products and digital sales channels produce a faster organised-share gain than projected by CY30P. The principal unresolved variables are elevated gold prices, reliance on imported gold and diamonds, and potential pressure on rural discretionary spending, all of which could affect the assumed 16.89% CAGR.