Knowledge and Human Development Authority freezes Dubai school fees

Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) froze Dubai private-school tuition fees at Academic Year 2025-26 levels for Academic Year 2026-27. The 0% school-fee increase, announced on 22 May 2026, removes price-led revenue growth while GEMS Education reported softer admissions after the 28 February 2026 conflict escalation.

Why did KHDA freeze Dubai school fees for 2026-27?

KHDA froze private K-12 tuition fees to support family retention during conflict-related uncertainty. The 22 May 2026 measure requires schools to maintain Academic Year 2025-26 fee levels throughout Academic Year 2026-27, after the escalation involving Iran, the United States and Israel on 28 February 2026 increased uncertainty across the United Arab Emirates.

KHDA’s decision suspends the usual inspection-linked pricing mechanism for one academic year. Under that framework, the Education Cost Index, or ECI, guides permitted fee increases: schools with unchanged ratings may raise fees by the ECI, while schools with a rating upgrade may raise fees by 1.5 to 2.0 times the ECI in the upgrade year. Schools with downgraded ratings cannot raise fees.

The freeze changes a recent pattern of tuition growth. Average Dubai private-school tuition rose at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 2.8% between Academic Year 2020-21 and Academic Year 2024-25, but Academic Year 2026-27 has an explicit 0% fee-growth assumption. Operators must therefore depend on student volumes, new seats and school mix rather than higher published tuition fees.

How dependent are Dubai schools on expatriate admissions?

Dubai private schools are highly dependent on expatriate household movements because expatriates accounted for 92.2% of Dubai’s population in Calendar Year 2024. About 98.0% of expatriate students attended private schools in Academic Year 2021-22, compared with 57.1% of Emirati students, making delayed overseas relocations directly relevant to private-school admissions.

GEMS Education, identified as Dubai’s largest operator, reported softer Academic Year 2026-27 admissions because families delayed moving to Dubai from abroad. At the peak of the conflict, about 1,500 to 1,600 GEMS students, representing roughly 1.0% to 1.5% of its student base, temporarily relocated. A substantial share of those students subsequently indicated plans to return.

The available evidence describes operational disruption rather than a confirmed structural fall in enrolment. KHDA reported that most students had resumed in-person teaching by mid-2026 after a brief return to remote learning. However, third- and fourth-quarter Calendar Year 2026 expatriate-flow data were still pending, leaving the duration of any admissions effect unresolved.

How does the KHDA fee freeze change revenue growth?

The KHDA fee freeze means private-school revenue growth in Academic Year 2026-27 must come principally from enrolment rather than tuition pricing. The report forecasts tuition revenue growth at a 3.1% CAGR from Academic Year 2024-25 to Academic Year 2027-28, while applying 0% fee growth in Academic Year 2026-27. Its frozen-fee-year revenue growth is therefore volume-led.

The forecast is more cautious than an outlook based only on earlier population expansion. Dubai’s population increased from 2.606 million in Calendar Year 2015 to 4.185 million in Calendar Year 2024, a 5.4% CAGR, and the expatriate population reached 3.864 million in 2024. The report nevertheless assumes below-trend economic conditions during 2026, with recovery beginning from the fourth quarter only if hostilities cease.

The economic assumptions behind the education forecasts have changed materially. ICAEW and Oxford Economics forecast a 2.4% contraction in Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product in 2026, compared with a pre-war forecast of 4.6% growth. The report says its enrolment, tuition-revenue and infrastructure estimates would require downward revision if conflict persists or regional recovery is materially delayed beyond 2027.

Can new capacity offset softer admissions?

New capacity can support later enrolment growth, but it cannot restore the tuition increases prohibited in Academic Year 2026-27. GEMS announced a June 2026 programme to add around 20,000 seats. KHDA also recorded six new private schools opening in Academic Year 2025-26 and reported more than 30 further applications under review.

Dubai’s starting private-school base was 227 schools serving 387,441 students at the end of 2025, or 90% of total school enrolment. Education E33, Dubai’s education strategy, targets at least 100 new private schools and 49,000 affordable seats by Calendar Year 2033. The revenue contribution from that capacity depends on household arrivals, school-age demand and completed admissions rather than announced construction alone.

School ratings remain relevant once the temporary freeze ends because they determine access to the ECI-based fee mechanism. In Academic Year 2024-25, 85 of 227 private schools, or 37.4%, were rated Good, while 48 schools, or 21.1%, were Very Good and 23, or 10.1%, were Outstanding. Those inspection outcomes do not create a fee-rise entitlement during the 2026-27 freeze.

Conclusion

KHDA’s Academic Year 2026-27 tuition freeze supports family retention during conflict-related uncertainty but removes a source of price-led revenue growth for Dubai school operators. The effect is amplified by the sector’s expatriate exposure: expatriates formed 92.2% of Dubai’s population in Calendar Year 2024, and about 98.0% of expatriate students used private schools in Academic Year 2021-22.

The next evidence will be third- and fourth-quarter Calendar Year 2026 expatriate-flow data, the return rate of temporarily relocated students and progress toward a ceasefire. The report assumes recovery from the fourth quarter of 2026 and normalised growth from 2027; failure of those conditions would require lower enrolment, revenue and infrastructure forecasts despite planned school capacity additions.