Belrise Industries: Jefferies raises target to Rs 250

Jefferies raises target, keeps Buy

Jefferies’ India autos and auto parts team has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Belrise Industries while revising its price target to Rs 250. The new target implies a 19% upside from the previous close of Rs 210.50. Jefferies said the target upgrade follows an in-line March-quarter performance and a positive medium-term earnings outlook. The brokerage also noted that the valuation looks elevated on some metrics, but argued that the growth outlook and expansion in the business footprint support its stance.

What changed in Jefferies’ view

Jefferies said its revised target price reflects confidence in Belrise’s growth trajectory and expanding addressable markets. The brokerage anchored the Rs 250 target on a 26 times multiple on March FY28 estimated earnings per share, and also noted that the stock trades at 29 times FY27 estimated earnings, which “appears rich”. Even with that caveat, the report reiterated that the combination of healthy growth and a broader operating footprint across segments supports the rating.

March-quarter performance was in line

In the March quarter, Belrise’s EBITDA rose 5% year-on-year and profit after tax grew 17% year-on-year, in line with Jefferies’ estimates. The brokerage cited these results as one of the reasons for its increased target price and continued positive view. While Jefferies did not detail the full quarterly financial breakdown in the note, it positioned the quarter as supportive of its medium-term earnings thesis.

New orders: exhaust systems, fuel tanks, and more

Jefferies highlighted strong new order traction as a key driver behind its positive outlook. Belrise has won two new orders. One order covers exhaust systems and fuel tanks for a top-selling model of a two-wheeler/three-wheeler OEM, which Jefferies believes is from TVS Motor. The second order is for exhaust systems and other components for a Japanese OEM.

The brokerage said these programmes are expected to begin production in 2QFY27 and 4QFY27. On full ramp-up, Jefferies estimates the programmes could add around Rs 300 crore in annual revenue, which it pegged at roughly 3% of FY26 top line.

Diversification beyond two-wheelers

Jefferies also underscored Belrise’s efforts to diversify beyond its core two-wheeler business into higher-value global niches. The brokerage said Belrise has entered the global aerospace components supply chain through two recent acquisitions in France and the UK. In addition, Jefferies wrote that the company has entered into a strategic agreement with an Israeli company to jointly pursue opportunities in defence.

Jefferies expects revenue contributions from aerospace and defence to remain modest in the near term. Still, it said these adjacencies have the potential to meaningfully boost growth over the medium to long term, alongside the company’s auto-focused operations.

Demand outlook: two-wheeler cycle and key risks

On the demand side, Jefferies expects Belrise to benefit from a cyclical upturn in India’s two-wheeler market. The brokerage projects India’s two-wheeler production to grow at a 9% CAGR over FY26–29. It attributed the outlook to the impact of a GST cut in September and a recovery in domestic demand.

At the same time, Jefferies flagged higher retail fuel prices and a weak monsoon as potential headwinds. These factors can influence discretionary spending, rural demand, and usage patterns, which remain important for two-wheeler volumes.

A separate Jefferies note: coverage initiation and growth metrics

In another Jefferies note cited in the same broader coverage, the brokerage initiated coverage on Belrise with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price target of Rs 135, indicating further upside from then-current levels. In that initiation thesis, Jefferies said it expected 12% revenue and EBITDA CAGR and 18% EPS CAGR over FY25–28E, alongside deleveraging.

That note also described Belrise’s position in two-wheeler metal components, highlighting about 24% market share in key product categories such as chassis and exhaust systems. Jefferies added that premiumisation trends could support value growth, citing that chassis value in premium models is 2.2 times that of commuter bikes.

Balance sheet, IPO proceeds, and deleveraging expectation

Jefferies said Belrise’s net debt stood at Rs 2,800 crore at FY25-end, and it expects the company to move to a net cash position of Rs 600 crore by FY28. The brokerage linked the deleveraging path to IPO proceeds of Rs 2,200 crore. The same set of notes also mentioned that Belrise debuted on the stock exchanges on May 28, 2025.

In addition, Jefferies pointed to product initiatives aimed at improving content-per-vehicle, including expansion of proprietary products such as steering columns and filters. The brokerage said these efforts are intended to lift content-per-vehicle by 38%.

Key numbers at a glance

Why the update matters for investors

Jefferies’ upgraded target to Rs 250 places emphasis on execution and order conversion over the next few years, especially as new programmes begin production in FY27. The brokerage’s thesis also links Belrise’s growth profile to broader trends: a two-wheeler upcycle, premiumisation, and increasing content-per-vehicle.

At the same time, Jefferies’ own note acknowledges valuation sensitivity, describing the FY27E multiple as rich while still defending the target multiple on FY28E earnings. The commentary on fuel prices and monsoon risk also shows that the demand outlook is not presented as one-way, even as the brokerage stays constructive.

Conclusion

Jefferies has reiterated its Buy call on Belrise Industries and lifted its price target to Rs 250 from Rs 215, citing in-line March-quarter performance, fresh order wins, and a positive medium-term earnings outlook. The brokerage also highlighted Belrise’s strategic steps into aerospace and defence through acquisitions in France and the UK and an agreement with an Israeli partner. The next milestones flagged in the note are the start of production for the new OEM programmes in 2QFY27 and 4QFY27, which Jefferies estimates could add about Rs 300 crore in annual revenue at full ramp-up.