Meesho share targets 2026: Jefferies sees ₹225 upside

Meesho Ltd shares were in the spotlight after global brokerage Jefferies initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹225 per share, citing the company’s scale-led value commerce model built on affordability, discovery and logistics efficiency. The initiation adds to a growing list of post-listing brokerage calls that range from bullish to cautious, reflecting both the opportunity in India’s e-commerce market and the challenge of valuing a newly listed platform.

Jefferies initiates coverage with a ₹225 target

Jefferies said it is anchoring its valuation framework on net merchandise value (NMV), arguing that traditional multiples can look distorted in early stages. The brokerage noted that EV/EBITDA appears elevated on a low base, so it values the stock at 1.6 times Jun-28E NMV, which it said is broadly similar to Blinkit. On that basis, Jefferies set a price target of ₹225 and reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating.

Jefferies also framed Meesho as a scale-led “value commerce” platform, where operating efficiency in logistics and a discovery-oriented shopping experience can support growth. The brokerage’s note highlighted affordability and discovery as key consumer hooks, with logistics efficiency as a supporting lever. The firm also acknowledged that assigning a clean valuation is difficult due to limited listed history and the lack of a clear peer set.

Block deal activity and early trade moves

The stock rose about 2% in morning trade on Wednesday after 9.3 crore shares changed hands in a block deal. The shares involved represented roughly 2% equity, and the transaction size was around ₹1,540 crore. Following that activity, the stock was trading near ₹170 in morning deals.

At that level, the stock was up about 53% from its IPO issue price of ₹111. The same Jefferies call was also described as implying roughly 33% upside from prevailing levels around the time of the note. The combination of a large block deal and fresh coverage helped keep the stock in focus.

A split brokerage tape: Buy, Neutral, Reduce, Underperform

Meesho has attracted a wide range of brokerage views shortly after listing. Macquarie initiated coverage with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a target price of ₹125, citing valuation concerns. Jefferies, by contrast, started with a ‘Buy’ and a ₹225 target.

Other calls cited in market coverage include Axis Capital with a ‘Buy’ and a ₹195 target, and UBS initiating with a ‘Buy’ and a ₹220 target, described as implying a 12.5% potential upside over the referenced price. Choice Institutional Equities also initiated coverage with a “BUY” rating and a target price of ₹200 per share, described as the first published rating post-listing in the cited note.

BofA Securities initiated with a ‘Neutral’ rating and a price target of ₹190 per share. In its initiation, BofA pointed to operating levers around advertising and logistics, while keeping a balanced risk-reward stance at prevailing levels.

JP Morgan’s ‘Overweight’ call and growth expectations

JP Morgan initiated coverage with an ‘Overweight’ rating and set a target price of ₹215 per share. Following the report, the stock was described as jumping about 10% to ₹189.90 in Wednesday’s trade in one account. In another market update, the stock was said to have settled at ₹172.68 per share on Wednesday, implying an upside of more than 24% to JP Morgan’s target.

In Thursday’s session after the JP Morgan initiation, Meesho shares were reported up 12%, touching an intraday high of ₹196.62, up 13.86%. JP Morgan described Meesho as India’s first “discovery-led marketplace” and pointed to its positioning in a fragmented retail market, combining a long-tail ad network with logistics.

Key operating metrics highlighted by JP Morgan

JP Morgan estimated Meesho’s NMV could grow at a 23% CAGR between FY26 and FY31. The brokerage also said the growth could be supported without overly aggressive user targeting, citing improvements such as higher shopping frequency, lower return-to-origin (RTO) orders, and growth in mall and content commerce segments.

On users, JP Morgan projected annual transacting users rising from 199 million in FY25 to 265 million in FY26, which it described as 33% annual growth, and reaching 568 million by FY31. On profitability, it projected EBITDA margin improving from minus 3% in FY26 to 4% by FY31, with scope from a currently less-monetised advertising model.

FY28 financial markers cited in the brokerage note

JP Morgan’s projections extended to FY28, where it estimated revenue of ₹21,636 crore, adjusted EBITDA of ₹211 crore, and net profit of ₹627 crore. The brokerage also said Meesho could achieve EBITDA break-even by FY28. For the period FY28 to FY31, JP Morgan cited an EBITDA CAGR of 170% and a free cash flow (FCF) CAGR of 52%.

These figures matter because they frame the market debate around Meesho’s near-term investment phase versus medium-term operating leverage. They also explain why different brokers are choosing different valuation anchors, including NMV-based approaches.

Listing context and price levels since IPO

Meesho listed on 10 December 2025 at around ₹162 per share against an IPO price of ₹111, a premium of roughly 46% on both NSE and BSE. Specific reported listing prices were ₹162.50 on NSE and ₹161.20 on BSE. By early afternoon on listing day, it was reported to be trading around ₹170 on NSE, about 53% above the issue price.

The same listing-day snapshot referenced an intraday high around ₹177.5 and a one-day traded value of over ₹6,000 crore with volumes above 35 crore shares. Grey market indicators had suggested a listing near ₹150 to ₹151 based on a GMP of ₹39 to ₹40, implying around 35% upside versus the issue price, which the actual opening exceeded.

Separately, BofA’s initiation note referenced that the stock was up about 46% from the issue price but down 36% from its post-listing peak of ₹254. That pullback has shaped how brokers frame upside potential versus valuation risk.

JM Financial’s ‘Reduce’ stance and market-cap reference

JM Financial initiated coverage with a ‘Reduce’ rating and set a March 2027 target price of ₹170 per share. The note described this as implying around 2% potential downside from the referenced trading level near ₹171.5 to ₹171.6. JM Financial said that after the post-listing rally, further upside appeared limited and valuation remained high.

The same market update mentioned that Meesho’s market capitalisation had risen to around ₹77,000 crore. It also referenced that the stock had seen three consecutive sessions of declines including 5% lower circuits, before rebounding by more than 4% in the cited trade window.

Broker targets at a glance

The recent coverage shows a wide range of targets clustered between ₹125 and ₹225.

Market impact: what investors are reacting to

Two factors stood out in the recent trading narrative. First was liquidity and positioning, underscored by the block deal of 9.3 crore shares worth around ₹1,540 crore. Second was the fast pace of coverage initiations, with targets and ratings landing in quick succession.

Investors are also weighing the gap between valuation methods. Jefferies explicitly flagged that EV/EBITDA can look elevated when EBITDA is on a low base, pushing the discussion toward NMV-based anchoring. Meanwhile, bearish or cautious calls such as Macquarie’s ‘Underperform’ and JM Financial’s ‘Reduce’ put the focus back on whether growth expectations are already priced in.

Analysis: why valuation anchors differ for Meesho

Meesho’s limited listed history and lack of a clean peer set, both cited by Jefferies, naturally widen the range of acceptable assumptions. Some broker notes focus on NMV and platform scale, while others emphasise near-term profitability and how quickly advertising can be monetised. JP Morgan’s projections, including an improving EBITDA margin profile and FY28 break-even marker, illustrate why bulls see operating leverage.

At the same time, the large spread in target prices indicates the market is still testing what “fair value” looks like for a discovery-led marketplace in India. The stock’s move from IPO levels to a post-listing peak of ₹254 and the subsequent decline referenced by BofA also adds sensitivity to entry price and valuation comfort.

Conclusion

Meesho’s post-listing narrative is being shaped by a mix of heavy trading activity and divergent brokerage views, ranging from Macquarie’s ₹125 ‘Underperform’ call to Jefferies’ ₹225 ‘Buy’ target. JP Morgan’s ‘Overweight’ initiation at ₹215 adds detailed growth and margin expectations, while neutral and reduce ratings highlight valuation discipline. The next set of market moves is likely to remain tethered to how investors interpret NMV-led valuation frameworks versus the timeline to EBITDA break-even that brokers have outlined.